Rasmussen daily poll is getting me down

[DavidDvorkin]

I know it's early yet, and a national poll doesn't mean that much anyway. Still, that rise a week or so ago really encouraged me, but now it's evaporated.

I'm hoping to see an effect from the big union endorsements, maybe this week.

[DavidDvorkin]

1. And now it's starting to get me up again

Not that it's wise to tie one's upness or downness to a political poll, but it's hard not to.

[Catchawave]

2. Here's a little poll that made me smile:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/DN-dems_11tex.ART.State.Edition1.4214f70.html

These are the movers and shakers of the Texas Democratic Party. :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

3. Very nice, indeed

[lisainmilo]

110. Yes Yes....Very Nice

He is the real deal for change in this country....Go John Go!

[DavidDvorkin]

4. And up a bit more again

If the current trend continues, brightness will fill the world.

[Catchawave]

5. How sweet :)

I keep the faith that he was still in single digits this time around Sept '03 :D

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Graph

Unable to stop fussing with it, I put the Rasmussen daily numbers into a spreadsheet and generated an encouraging graph:


... Which I don't know how to paste in here. I guess I've only used URLs before. Sigh.

[DavidDvorkin]

13. Damn. Not what was I hoping to see.

No bump of the speech, I guess. Not yet, anyway.

[Catchawave]

10. Keep your eye on the Ras Favorables.....

very telling :)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/9/14/112929/930

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Interesting!

[DavidDvorkin]

7. Graph of the poll

Here's the current Rasmussen daily poll situation:

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Not what I was hoping to see today

The 9/14 update.

[Catchawave]

9. I left a couple of comments for you :)

Thanks for posting those, it's like watching a horse race. I'm not worried at all, heck Kerry was less than 10% in Sept '03.

[DavidDvorkin]

12. Thanks for those

My hope is that the graph will show an overall steady improvement, and those strange Edward haters and dismissers in GDPolitics won't be able to ignore it.

Maybe I'll add a post to the thread every day, commenting on the latest numbers, just to make sure that people keep looking at the graph. Not only do I want more people to pay attention to John E., as opposed to Hillary! and Obama!! I also want the discussion of his candidacy to be factual and reasonably objective, instead of weirdly emotional as it now is over there.

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Slight improvement - 9/18

No change for Clinton or Obama. One point uptick for Edwards.

Over the long term, what's strikes me is that there really hasn't been much for any of the three.

[DavidDvorkin]

15. 9/19/07 - Steady as she goes

I'm surprised by the lack of change. Opinions are strong here, as we all know, but is the country as a whole not paying that much attention yet?

[Catchawave]

16. Is your OP graph updating automatically ?

Very kewl :hi:

[Catchawave]

17. d'oh me....your #7 post is updating automatically ?

[DavidDvorkin]

18. In effect. Manually automatically.

I have to update the graph at that URL (which is on my Web site), but once I do that, the new version shows up automatically when you open Post #7.

I guess the DU Web server grabs the image at that URL when it creates the HTML page to send to your browser. Or so I deduce.

[DavidDvorkin]

19. 9/20/07 - Really stable

[DavidDvorkin]

20. 9/21/07 - Ugh

Long term, the three of them are bouncing around in a narrow range. Short term, ugh.

[DavidDvorkin]

21. Now with exciting 3-day rolling averages!

To smooth the curves out and maybe show trends more clearly.

[DavidDvorkin]

22. Even spiffier now

Ever spiffier! Greater spiffiness on a daily basis! Until eventually the graph attains a level of spiffishism that was heretofore only seen in dreams!

At least, until the next spiffishness iteration.

Last weekend, someone posted snarkily somewhere on DU that Edwards supporters only post poll numbers when they're favorable. Harrumph, I say. And harrumph again. I post these daily. But not on weekends. Rasmussen seems to post all their weekend numbers on Monday, not during the actual weekend. So I won't be able to update this until some time on Monday evening. That update will contain three days' worth of numbers.

Harrumph.

[DavidDvorkin]

26. 9/24/07 - Added something to the graph

I added a line for the total of the three candidates shown. I thought it would be interesting to show how close the three of them combined are to 100% of the total.

[DavidDvorkin]

27. 9/25/07 - Edwards up today

Clinton steady, Obama down. All those movement are slight, as they all have been from the start. Since the lines on the graph are three-day rolling averages, small daily changes don't have a large, visible effect unless they're maintained.

I can't decide if I should leave the total line on there. It's interesting, and it does show how little the remaining candidates pull compared to the top three. However, including it flattens the lines for the three candidates and makes it harder to see what trends there are in their lines.

[DavidDvorkin]

29. 9/26/07 - Edwards and Clinton holding, Obama dropping

In the daily numbers. Nothing dramatic or long-term enough to show up strikingly in the three-day rolling averages yet.

Following rinsd's excellent suggestion, I replaced the Total line with Others. That eliminated the flattening effect while still making it possible to track the status of the other candidates as a group.

[DavidDvorkin]

30. 9/27/07 - Clinton slightly down, Obama up, Edwards down

But still no real long-term trends. I thought doing this graph would be exciting, but not only is it the opposite of encouraging for an Edwards supporter, it's also surprisingly boring. Perhaps it's true that most voters still aren't paying a lot of attention. Or that their minds are pretty firmly made up. For now, anyway.

Rasmussen doesn't say when the daily numbers were collected. The numbers dated 9/27 obviously are from 9/26 at the latest, and maybe from 9/25 or 9/24. That makes it hard to know when to look for an effect, if any, from a particular event, such as a debate or an announcement.

[DavidDvorkin]

31. 9/28/07 - Clinton and Obama slightly down, Edwards steady

The next update, on Monday, will include three new daily numbers (Saturday, Sunday, Monday), so maybe it will show a dramatic, startling, astonishing change! But probably not.

[Catchawave]

32. Looks like Obama's in a free fall ?

[DavidDvorkin]

33. It's actually beginning to look that way

It will be frustrating to have to wait for three days for the next set of numbers, but those numbers might confirm the Obama drop.

[DavidDvorkin]

37. Clinton up, Obama unchanged, Edwards up slightly

44%, 22%, 15% respectively.

I'll update the graph tonight. I just noticed on the Rasmussen page that the daily numbers are actually four-day rolling averages. Duh. So my three-day averages aren't meaningful, and I'll switch the graph back to what Rasmussen calls the daily numbers.

[DavidDvorkin]

38. 10/1/07 - Overall, no real change

Obama may be trending slowly down, in the long term, but it's hard to see anything happening.

Note that these are the actual Rasmussen numbers, because those are already four-day rolling averages.

[DavidDvorkin]

39. 10/2/07 - Clinton rising at Obama's expense?

Edwards is staying fairly steady (if too low, sob). Long term, Clinton seems to be rising while Obama declines.

[Catchawave]

40. December '03 - Dean 43%/Kerry 12%

Keep the faith :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

41. Kewl!

I fiddled around with adding trendlines to the chart, but that didn't really show much. However, the trendlines did show Clinton and Edwards steady and Obama slowly declining, which is what the graph looks like to the eye.

Maybe it really is still name recognition at this early point.

[DavidDvorkin]

42. 10/3/07 - Holding pattern

How many different ways can I come up with to say that nothing much has changed?

Long-term, it begins to look like Clinton and Edwards are taking support from Obama.

[DavidDvorkin]

43. 10/4/07 - Obama up, Clinton and Edwards down

But all three are still bouncing around within fairly narrow limits.

[Catchawave]

44. Here ya go David.....

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/behind_the_horse_race_numbers_edwards_strongest_democrat_in_general_election_match_ups

Strongest Democrat in General Election Match-ups
A Commentary by Douglas Schoen
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Advertisment
The most recent Rasmussen Reports data show that all of the most likely Democratic nominees lead their strongest prospective opponents. At this point John Edwards appears to be strongest in individual match-ups leading Giuliani by 9%, Thompson by 10%, and Romney by 11%.

Hillary Clinton holds almost as big a lead, but falls just short of Edwards' margin. She leads Giuliani by 5%, Thompson by 8%, and Romney by 9%.

Barack Obama holds a more narrow 5% lead over Giuliani, a 6% lead over Thompson, and a 3% lead over Romney.

How do we explain these findings, in the wake of Edwards' third place showing in Democratic primary trial heats?

First, one naturally points to Edwards' southern roots. Since John F. Kennedy's victory in 1960, the only Democrats to win the Presidency were southern Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

Second, Edwards--despite his current left wing rhetorical appeal--is actually perceived as more conservative than either Clinton or Obama.

Overall, 44% perceive Edwards as liberal in comparison to 51% who percieive Obama as liberal and 57% who see Clinton in this way.

By contrast, 13% characterize Edwards as conservative, compared to 8% who see Clinton and Obama in this way.

Finally, Edwards at this point demonstrates the greatest appeal to Independents beating Guiliani by 13%. Obama wins Independents by 5% and Clinton wins them by 3% against Guiliani.

All of this may well be academic as Clinton leads national trial heats for the Democratic nomination according to the Real Clear Politics average. She also holds double digit leads in New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina and every early or important primary state. Rasmussen noted earlier this week that a Clinton victory is not inevitable, but she is the clear frontrunner.

The only place Clinton doesn’t have a solid lead at the moment is Iowa. Rasmussen noted recently that Iowa has become a must-win state for Obama. Despite his success in general election polling, the same is true for Edwards.

Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.

Schoen was President Bill Clinton's research and strategic consultant during the 1996 reelection campaign.

:loveya:

[DavidDvorkin]

45. Yeah, I loved that

Especially since Schoen is or was connected to Clinton.

[DavidDvorkin]

46. 10/5/07 - Obama up, Clinton and Edwards down

One percentage point, in each case.

Short term, as an Edwards supporter, I'm unhappy. Long term, there's still no real movement.

Rasmussen links: Data in tabular form. Discussion.

[DavidDvorkin]

47. 10/6-10/8/07 - Such stability!

Rasmussen links: Data in tabular form. Discussion.

[DavidDvorkin]

48. 10/9/07 - Flatline!

All three unchanged. First time that's happened.



Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion.

[DavidDvorkin]

49. 10/10/07 - Clinton steady, Obama down, Edwards up

The usual insignificant change.



Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

50. 10/11/07 - Cliinton up, the boys down

Clinton up big.



Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

51. 10/12/07 - Clinton pulling away, Obama and Edwards stalled

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

52. 10/13/07-10/15/07 - Other's doing well!

I'm sure this all means something.



Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

53. 10/16/07 - Yawn

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

54. 10/17/07 - Still Yawning

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

55. 10/18/07 - You're Getting Sleeeepy

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

56. 10/19/07 - Small Changes, Nifty New Graph!

I've added a graph. The second one shows the differences between the three top candidates. This one does show a bit of a trend (which is partly easier to see because of the stretched vertical scale): Clinton generally increasing her lead over the other two, while Obama and Edwards bounce around but remain roughly the same relative to each other.





Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

57. 10/20/07-10/22/07 - Clinton's Taking Over

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

58. 10/23/07 - Clinton Drops! Obama Stalls! Edwards Rises!

I'm trying to create the illusion of excitement.





Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

59. 10/24/07 - Clinton Stalls, Obama Drops, Edwards on the Move!

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

60. 10/25/07 - Clinton Up, Edwards Down, Obama Flatlining!

Or, if you're being picky, not much is happening.





Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

61. 10/26/07 - Clinton Down, Obama Down, Edwards Holding

Nothing significant. Note that Obama is below All Others now.





Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

62. 10/27/07-10/29/07 - Dullsville, Man

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

63. 10/20/07 - Buncha Nothing

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

64. 10/31/07 - Now with cool trend lines

The second chart is the same as the first, but without All Others and with trend lines added for the Big Three. I used a fifth-power polynomial. (Because I liked the result, that's why!)

The Republican side is more interesting. The "tabular" link below shows Huckabee passing McCain for fourth place. He's close behind Romney and Thompson and could soon be #2, behind Giuliani.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

65. 11/1/07 - Clinton up, ObEd down

Two points in all three cases. The trend lines are interesting, in the second chart. Whether they mean anyting is open to question, but they're interesting anyway.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

66. 11/2/07 - Clinton Steady, Obama Up, Edwards Down

Tiny changes. Nothing happening.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

67. 11/3/07 - Clinton and Edwards Steady, Obama Up

Still tiny changes and nothing actually happening.

I think this is the first time Ras has published any numbers on a weekend. I hope they're going to keep doing this.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

68. 11/4/07-11/5/07 - Clinton sagging, Obama stalled, Edwards rising

Small changes, but I kinda like the trends.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

70. 11/6/07 - Clinton and Obama falling, Edwards rising

The trend is still encouraging, especially now that I've extended it for a week. (I don't think a polynomial fit to polling data means anything, since there's no underlying physical process for the polynomial to fit, but I like the way those lines go, anyway.)







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

71. 11/7/07 - Clinton falls, Obama stalls, Edwards climbs

Lookit the trend.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

72. 11/8/07 - Clinton & Obama up, Edwards down

The trends still look pleasing. And in fact, all three of them are staying within the narrow ranges they've been in all along.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

73. 11/9/07 - Clinton up, Obama down, Edwards steady

So the three are still noodling around in the same ranges.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

74. 11/10/07-11/12/07 - Slight changes, Edwards trending up

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

75. 11/13/07 - Clinton down, Obama flat, Edwards up

According to the trendlines, Edwards will pass Obama for the #2 position some time this weekend. It must be true, because I saw it on a graph.

Go, Johnny, go!







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

76. 11/14/07 - Clinton up, Obama still flat, Edwards ouch

Ouch, ouch, ouch.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

77. 11/15/07 - Clinton down, Obama and Edwards up

They're still staying within those narrow ranges.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

78. 11/16/07 - Clinton and Edwards unchanged, Obama up

Still within the same ranges, but Obama's movement will be significant, if it keeps up. On the other hand, no one's movements ever seems to keep up, in this poll. On the third hand, I thought this was the week when Big Things were expected to happen. On the fourth hand, just wait till after Thanksgiving, wow, will there be movement then!







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

79. 11/17-19/07 - Narrow movements over the weekend, no real change

No big happenings yet.

I'll toot my own horn, or at least graphical representation's horn. People post the latest Rasmussen daily numbers on DU and seem to read significance into the daily movements. But when you look at the graph of the numbers, you can see that, over the long term, nothing is happening.

Good lord, are we going to have to wait till after Iowa to see big movements in the national polls?







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

80. 11/20/07 - Clinton and Edwards up, Obama noticably down

I changed the meaningless fifth-order polynomial trend lines to probably equally meaningful logarithmic ones. These aren't so influenced by recent ups and downs, so I hoped they'd show the long-term trend. They show Clinton rising, Obama declining, and Edwards declining very slightly.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

81. 11/21/07 - Clinton and Obama down, Edwards steady

Obama's drop is a serious one, at least over the short term.

Let's try third-order polynomial trend lines! Not because they show what I want to see, but more because they show what I think I'm seeing when I look at the graph of the Rasmussen data.

I wish Ras would publish the actual daily numbers, so we could see if the jumps and dips are just due to big outliers or if they reflect something more.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Catchawave]

82. I am thankful for DavidD doing the daily charts !

They make my day :toast: Happy Thanksgiving :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

83. Thanks!

I noticed today that on the Rasmussen site it says that starting Dec. 7 they'll post the numbers every day, not just Mon-Fri. That will be nice.

I've been trying to extract the daily numbers from the four-day and weekly averages, but I don't think it can be done.

[DavidDvorkin]

84. 11/27/07 - Clinton and Obama holding, Edwards down 1

This must be the week when everyone starts really moving! Come on, guys!







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

85. Rasmussen daily for 11/28/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama up 1, Edwards unchanged

From which I deduce ... um ... Yawn. What was I saying?







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

86. Rasmussen daily for 11/29/07 - Clinton sliding, Obama leaping, Edwards unchanged

Clinton's slide is continuing; it looks real. Obama is a very jaggedy guy with a weird chart.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

87. Rasmussen daily for 11/30/07 - Clinton still sliding, Obama still leaping, Edwards still unchanged

The Clinton and Obama curves are doing the same thing they did in early October, so as always, we'll have to wait for another week or so of numbers before we can tell if this is a long-term thing.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

88. Rasmussen daily for 12/1/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

Fooled me - they published on Saturday. Let's hope they do it tomorrow, as well.

Okay, so this is the week Clinton collapses, Obama slides, and Edwards surges into the lead!







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

89. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/2/07 - Clinton and Edwards up 1, Obama down 3

Clinton is flattening and may have arrested her slide, Obama's rise has reversed, and Edwards continues to rise.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

90. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/3/07 - All three unchanged

Rather unusual.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

91. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/4/07 - Clinton's slide continues, Obama down 1, Edwards up 2

If this goes on ...







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

92. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/5/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama up 1, Edwards down 1

So we're back to the tiny changes. Need more data! More data!

The trendlines indicate that the top three Dems will converge at 25% in a week or so. If this goes on, that is.

On the Republican side, Rasmussen shows Huckabee in the lead. Ras also says that Huckabee now leads Clinton in Arkansas.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Catchawave]

93. Happy 3 month anniversay David !

That is, when you started this thread ! And by the number of views, it's enjoyed by many :hi:

I think we're still in a 3-way tie counting down to the final days til the first vote in Iowa.

Again, thank you so much for providing this info :yourock:

[DavidDvorkin]

94. Thanks!

I probably should start a new thread, because it's not really getting me down now. The graph isn't what I keep hoping to see, but it looks more encouraging lately.

And I'm increasingly hopeful about Iowa. I wish there were some sort of (reliable) daily poll from there. I'd add it to the posts.

[Catchawave]

95. Sweetie ! You do whatever suits you !

I'm just a girly fan :hi: AND, loving these graphs...on the good and not so good days :toast:

[DavidDvorkin]

96. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/6/07 - Clinton and Edwards down 1, Obama up 2

Clinton's slide is slow and steady and undeniable. Obama and Edwards still don't show trends. Obama is the most volatile of the three, so I don't think his supporters should react too strongly to sudden changes in his numbers.

The differences chart shows a real tightening. I should add trend lines to that one.







Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Plucketeer]

97. Looks GOOD

to lil' ol' me. John hovers just below the surface - like a gator waitin' to strike! Cool, un-nerved, steady as he goes. ;-)

:kick: butt, John!!!

[DavidDvorkin]

98. That's my feeling, too

My hope, anyway.

An endorsement from Gore would break it wide open. I'm hoping for that, too.

[DavidDvorkin]

99. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/7/07 - Clinton and Edwards up 1, Obama down 1

Clinton rebounds! Edwards surges! Obama collapses!

Or: No real change. I think that's my choice.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

100. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/8/07 - Clinton up 2, Obama unchanged, Edwards down 1

Long run, Obama and Edwards stuck, Clinton still strikingly down but no longer falling. Jeez.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

103. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/9/07 - Clinton and Obama up 2, Edwards down 2

Clinton's slide seems to have stopped.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

104. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/10/07 - Clinton unchanged, Obama up 1, Edwards down 2

Sigh.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Catchawave]

105. Turn that frown upside down :)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls...

CBS Poll results for Dec. 17th, 2003:

Dean - 23%
Clark - 10%
Lieberman - 10%
Gephardt - 6%
Sharpton - 5%
Kerry - 4%
Edwards - 2%
Carol Moseley-Braun - 1%

[DavidDvorkin]

106. Wow, that's illuminating

And of course it's Iowa that matters at this point.

[DavidDvorkin]

107. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/11/07 - Clinton up 1, Obama unchanged, Edwards down 1

Ouch.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

108. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/12/07 - Clinton down 3, Obama stalled, Edwards up 3

Clinton resumes slide! Obama surge squelched! Edwards leaping!

Very short term, anyway.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

109. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/13/07 - Clinton up 1, Obama and Edwards unchanged

Even this late in the game, they're not going anywhere.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

111. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/14/07 - Clinton and Edwards up 1, Obama down 1

(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

112. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/15/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

I shortened the period covered by the graphs. They now go back to the beginning of September.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

113. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/16/07 - Clinton up 3, Obama unchanged, Edwards down 2

(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

115. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/17/07 - All three unchanged

That's quite unusual.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

116. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/18/07 - Clinton unchanged, Obama down 3, Edwards up 1

I changed the trend graph. It now goes back only 10 days, and the trend lines are linear. Less nifty looking but probably more meaningful.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

117. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/19/07 - Clinton up 2, Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

Surging, not surging, unsurging, resurging! Or whatever you prefer.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

118. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/20/07 - Clinton down 3, Obama up 3, Edwards up 2

Go, John!

All Others are declining. Makes me wonder if their support is shifting to the top three. Of course, it's all really little bumps and dips.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

119. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/21/07 - Clinton up 1, Obama down 3, Edwards down 2

The more things change ...








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Plucketeer]

120. I don't know WHO or WHAT "Rasmussen" is, but...

.... it's blantantly obvious that this poll's stuck someplace where the sun don't shine. :crazy:

When you've got even the MSM(!!!!) saying he's taking the lead - this poll's gotta be someone's fantasizing. :crazy:

[DavidDvorkin]

121. Rasmussen has been around for a while

And is fairly well known. I have no idea how his accuracy compares to that of the other major pollsters.

I chose his data to graph because he's the only one who publishes a daily number. I was hoping it would show whatever trends there might be.

[Plucketeer]

122. I wasn't being critical, Dave

Just trying to look on the positive side. ;-)

[DavidDvorkin]

123. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/27/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

I thought the few days that Rasmussen skipped would produce something interesting, but the Big Three are still pretty much where they were.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

124. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/27/07 - Clinton down 1, Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

I thought the few days that Rasmussen skipped would produce something interesting, but the Big Three are still pretty much where they were.








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

125. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/28/07 - Clinton up 1, Obama and Edwards down 1

Still no real change. Are we going to have to wait till after Iowa to see movement?








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

126. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/29/07 - Clinton up 3, Obama up 1, Edwards down 1

One could almost think that the attacks and counterattacks on DU are having no effect on these numbers at all!

(I finally thought of enclosing these in a page on my Web site. Why didn't I think of that before? Duh. The URL is http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html If you like these graphs, please pass that URL around. Thanks.)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

127. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/30/07 - Clinton and Obama down 1, Edwards up 2

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

128. Rasmussen daily graph for 12/31/07 - All three unchanged

Did anyone expect that?

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

129. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/1/08 - All three still unchanged

Very odd.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

130. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/3/08 - Clinton down 1, Obama and Edwards up 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

131. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/4/08 - Clinton down 3, Obama up 2, Edwards up 1

Presumably, tomorrow's numbers will start showing the effect of Iowa, if there is one. Unfortunately, I may or may not be able to update these graphs for a few days.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

132. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/4-1/8/08 - Clinton sinking, Obama and Edwards rising

Having been out of town for a few days, and plotting a few days' worth of numbers, I find the trends striking.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

133. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/9/08 - Clinton unchanged, Obama up 2, Edwards down 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

134. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/10/08 - Clinton and Obama up 2, Edwards down 4

Ouch.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

135. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/11/08 - Clinton up 1, Obama and Edwards unchanged

Boy, big things are going to happen tomorrow! I betcha! Maybe. Or not.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

136. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/12/08 - Clinton up 4, Obama up 2, Edwards down 1

Depressing.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

137. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/13/08 - Clinton and Obama up 1, Edwards down 2

Really depressing.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

139. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/14/08 - Clinton and Obama down 2, Edwards up 1

A breath of hope!

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

140. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/15/08 - Clinton down 1, Obama down 4, Edwards up 2

The trends are right, at any rate.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

141. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/16/08 - Clinton unchanged, Obama down 1, Edwards up 1

The Edwards train keeps chugging along!

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

142. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/17/08 - Clinton and Edwards unchanged, Obama up 1

Just when it was getting exciting, they're flattening out again.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

143. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/18/08 - Clinton and Obama up 1, Edwards unchanged

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

144. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/19/08 - Clinton unchanged, Obama up 1, Edwards down 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

145. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/20/08 - Clinton and Edwards unchanged, Obama up 2

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

146. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/21/08 - Clinton up 3, Obama down 2, Edwards down 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

147. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/22/08 - Clinton up 1, Obama and Edwards down 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

148. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/23/08 - Clinton unchanged, Obama down 1, Edwards up 2

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

149. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/24/08 - Clinton and Obama unchanged, Edwards up 1

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

150. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/25/08 - Clinton down 1, Obama and Edwards unchanged

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

151. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/26/08 - Clinton down 5 (36), Obama up 3 (33), Edwards up 2 (18)

Is something significant happening? At last, an interesting week looms!

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

152. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/27/08 - Clinton up 4 (40), Obama down 2 (31), Edwards down 1 (17)

Back they go to where they were.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

153. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/28/08 - Clinton down 1 (39), Obama unchanged (31), Edwards unchanged (17

Yawn.

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

154. Rasmussen daily graph for 1/29/08 - Clinton up 2 (41), Obama up 1 (32), Edwards up 1 (18)

(These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html)








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[Catchawave]

23. You'll like these numbers

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=275a3c34-9cad-41b4-a76e-78799cfa229d

:toast:

[waiting for hope]

24. I Like Them!

:hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

25. Those are great!

Edwards would mean a landslide, which would also probably mean big majorities in both houses of Congress.

[Catchawave]

28. Indeed, he will help "down ballot" for sure

He does well in state party straw polls, which inspires me also :) Those are the boots on the ground activists.

Keep the faith :hi:

[Catchawave]

34. SUSA new polls

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/9/28/133621/961

Keep the faith :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

35. Nifty

It's so damned clear who would be the best candidate in the general election.

[Catchawave]

36. Polls are funny, I like the idea that Dems are Kicking GOP butt....but

I did lie for a Zogby poll once, I think it was during Kerry-Edwards run, but I remember saying I was Republican, went to church every Sunday and shopped at Wal-Mart.....but was voting for them!

I like SUSA publishes the question with the results, but still, I don't trust polls ! :evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

69. Edwards is absolutely the most prepared campaigner. If Senator Clinton's

support begins to wobble in Iowa, I expect John Edwards to be the chief beneficiary of that slip in her polling.

My guess is that a large percentage of Senator Clinton's support is media-focused name recognition, plus the novelty of her celebrity as an electable female.

Edwards made a lot of good impression in Iowa in 04. I believe that residual good will remains for him there, and that he, Biden, and Obama are going to be in the first three positions by 11:00 p.m. CST January 3rd in Iowa.

The Des Moines REGISTER endorsed John Edwards last time. They may again.

Also, there is a very significant percentage of undecided voters still to make up their minds. Who's to say that John Edwards won't be their choice?

We're not only still in the hunt, we're within striking distance of the nomination, IMO.

[L84TEA]

101. Poll me...

I live in Iowa and I can honestly say I haven't' been polled. I asked my friends and family if they have; because they are huge fans of Edwards too... nada...

I have however had the O' campaign call me with this new crap-ass technique... They call and act like you at one time supported or support Ob. I am not crazy others have got the call from them too. It is a creepy slimy used car salesman technique... that even the Hill campaign hasn't stooped too.

I have seen big Ob signs around here, but very few they are just big so they make an impression. I haven't been asked to have an Edwards sign or I would display it proudly.

I will never believe or trust a poll... I believe that the top 2 pay the poll'ers well and handpick the "poll-ies"

[Catchawave]

102. Good for you !

:hi: Seems these polls drive the MSM coverage, which drives the polls !? I saw this goodie on Daily Kos today....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/8/102655/342/586/419445

"Well that pretty much cleared it up for me, thanks Chuck Todd."

(and thanks DavidD for letting me hijack your thread, again!)

[IndyOp]

114. If you are willing to put a sign in your yard and help get signs to others --

then call the closest Edwards' campaign office and ask for one!

My guess is that they just don't have enough volunteers to go door to door to ask if you want one. In my little town in Indiana, I walked to the County Democratic Headquarters and got a sign to support our Democratic Mayor in the last race because I knew his volunteers were extremely busy.

John needs all the help he can get and you are in a location where you can help directly and inexpensively - just by asking them to come put a sign in your yard. Or, better yet picking up a few yourself and distributing them to friends or letting people know how they can get a sign.

Click the link just below and then click on the name of your county and you will see the address and phone number of the closest Edwards campaign office: http://johnedwards.com/iowa/offices/#

:hi:

[NastyRiffraff]

138. National polls are REALLY iffy right now

As the OP said, it's way to early to pay attention to them, if in fact it's EVER useful to pay attention. As we saw in NH, even state polls are unreliable this cycle. There are all kinds of Republicans running screaming from the GOP, and independents and undecideds who are looking for a home, and they don't like any of the Republican candidates (who can blame them?) but aren't used to voting for a Democrat. They're evaluating right now, and it can change daily, even hourly.

So get right back up! :bounce: