Reply #23: pre-opening blather [View All]

[UpInArms]

09:06 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.5. The futures market has weakened in the wake of the jobs report as participants are concentrating on the below-consensus nonfarm payrolls gain as a sign the economy may be slowing in a more appreciable manner than is now believed. We disagree with that view and think the payrolls number is simply offering a perfect excuse to take some money off the table from the market's short-term overbought condition.

08:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.8. The jobs report showed a lower than expected nonfarm payrolls gain of 51K (consensus 120K), but there was an upward revision to the prior month to188K from 128K. The two months together average just about 120K. Hourly earnings rose 0.2%, which was below the 0.3% consensus estimate and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.7%. Altogether the data won't change expectations that the Fed will refrain from raising rates again at this month's FOMC meeting, so we consider this really to be a neutral report.

08:04 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Based on action in the futures market, the cash market is currently slated to start the session on a downward note. The negative disposition is being driven by a burgeoning sense that the market is overbought on a short-term basis and due for a pullback of some sort. The early indication can't be taken for granted, though, knowing that the September jobs report will be released at 08:30 ET.