Reply #20: Probability doesn't quite work that way... [View All]

[Psephos]

It's not like an earthquake, where tension builds over time, until it releases.

You're quite right about the failure rate, but in single-event terms, it says almost nothing about what will happen next launch. The idea that averages smear evenly over time is a mathematical fallacy.

If you flip a coin randomly and get five heads in a row, the chance of heads on the next toss is still exactly 50-50.

Peace.