Nick, you are correct that OPEC is producing ever increasing amounts of heavy sour crude. Oil companies aren't building more refineries because the oil will not be there in the future to justify the investment. I believe The Association For the Study of Peak Oil And Gas recently published a paper that the planet's light sweet crude reached peak last year.
Cliss you are right, Saudi Arabia's major fields are likely near peak and maybe even collapse. As some of you may know, Matt Simmons is sort of the rock star of the peak oil movement because he is the one Repug and * supporter who is sounding the bell as to the impending world peak oil production problem we are facing. Here is a recent interview about his book Twilight In The Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. Simmons says that not only will the Saudis be unable to ramp up production to meet world demand in the coming years, considerable production declines are imminent because most of their oil comes from six fields which have been producing at or near capacity for decades. Although some people will take this the wrong way, Simmons believes oil should be $5 to $10 a gallon so people realize how precious the resource is and to spur investment in alternatives. Near the 39 minute mark of the interview he says that this winter there may be a 2-5 million per daiy global shortfall which would send the price through the roof.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0806-2.ramhttp://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0806-2.m3uhttp://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0806-2.asxhttp://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0806-2.mp3 
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