Reply #35: Moving The World Toward A Global Tax and Currency (Tinfoil recommended) [View All]

[54anickel]

Very long

http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php/20050820115726592

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The Bank for International Settlements I have had the privilege of covering eight Bank for International Settlements annual meetings, since 1997, with the exception of 2004. During that time, I have interviewed on an annual basis the head economist. I have had numerous interviews with the managing director of the Financial Stability Forum and an exclusive interview with the new BIS Managing Director, Dr. Malcolm Knight, in 2003. I find it interesting that the theme of this year's annual report was on "disturbing patterns of uneven growth worldwide." While the BIS cites household debt at historic highs and low savings rates in America, as opposed to other countries of the world, the report concentrated on the "disturbing patterns of uneven growth." The BIS cited three cycles of highs and lows. The first began in the 1970's, when the dollar was taken off the gold standard. Head economist, Mr. Bill White told me that the change in the gold standard was very important in world affairs. The second cycle began in the mid-1980's, ending in a property bust; and the current cycle began in the mid-1990s. All Americans should be concerned about this report, as the world's bankers are signaling the end of the third cycle, which can only mean higher interest rates, as they withdraw money from the banking system. This comes at a time of higher oil prices which only enforces the inflationary spiral. It is the BIS that has created the uneven cycles of growth. With a floating currency system of PAPER, you can do whatever you want. If you have a great deal of money you can create the highs and lows of any countries currency just by buying or selling it. Heaven help all of us!

Furthermore, household savings is not evident in the U.S. to the same extent that it is in the Asian countries. World national savings rose to 25% of Gross Domestic Product or about 1% point more than the annual average rate for the decade. This was due to the higher savings habits in the developed world, and in particular, China where savings rose 48%. High debt-to-income ratios and low savings in the U.S. do not bode well for Americans. Furthermore, the U.S. and China accounted for half of the world's growth, the euro area and Japan have much slower growth, and they stated that the prospect of reducing America's fiscal deficit is not encouraging. Citing concerns over disinflation, the BIS stressed the need for interest rates to rise in order to slow consumer spending. Mr. White explained, "The time has come for a measured withdrawal of the stimulus that has been put into the system." What he is saying is that it is time for the Fed to withdraw some of the huge amounts of money that it injected into the banking system that created 45 year low interest rates.

Now the U.S. is in the process of another "orderly reversal." The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates TEN TIMES in 4 months to 3.5%. Currently prime rate is 6.5% which is the highest in four years. By the end of the year, prime is expected to be at 7.25% which means three more point increases. With this increase, the fed funds rate is now back to the level prevailing before September 11, 2001. The Fed cut the rate to 1 percent by mid-2003 and started tightening in June 2004.

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The BIS recommended what several academics have suggested by way of establishing a single international currency or, perhaps. moving to regional currency blocks, such as the dollar, euro, and renimbi/yen. (This is the first time I have seen renimbi and yen tied together. What it indicates is the growing power of the renimbi over the yen. )

History of Global or Regional Currency Amazing! Why is the Bank for International Settlements talking a global or regional currency, but ABC, NBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times are not? Since I subscribe to The Financial Times, I was surprised that the only thing it reported was Bill White's comment about "an orderly reversal."

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On September 30, 2004 I interviewed former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker who told me that a "globalized world needed an international currency." When I asked him if he meant the Special Drawing Right-SDR, which is a basket of currencies comprised of the dollar (0.577), Euro (0.426), Japanese yen (21) and British pound (0.0984) (amounts found on page 193 of the BIS 2005 Annual Report), the dear boy turned his back on me. Please realize what this meant. He is almost to seven feet tall while I am five feet tall! In an interview with BIS head economist, Bill White, in August, 2004, I asked him why the BIS was changing to the Special Drawing Right which is the currency used by the International Monetary Fund, instead of using the gold franc. He replied,

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At the BIS 2005 press briefing, I was the only reporter to ask about a global or regional currency. When I asked if the regional currency would be a stepping stone to a global currency, as suggested by Messrs. Mundell, Frankel and Volcker, BIS Managing Director Dr. Malcolm Knight told me:

The question you ask is not an easy one about r regional currencies. Global imbalances are a result of very high savings levels relative to investment levels in a number of emerging market countries and is what is allowing the very large current account deficit of the U.S. to be financed rather smoothly most of the time. What this means is that the policies and the changes in behavior that are needed to adjust these imbalances are real. We need a rise in savings in certain countries which have low savings. That can come partly from policies such as tax incentives to saving. I think that movements to regional currencies are a long run consideration.

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