Reply #62: After Reading The Article Let Me Say: Utter Nonsense [View All]

[ProfessorGAC]

This is one analyst's view of the numbers. I know at least 30 economists and analysts (and of course, myself) who would dispute 80% of this report, and completely rooted in data.

There is no indication in any of the historical data that:
a) Consumer confidence does not always rise by 7.5 to 13.6% the month before Christmas. (40 year historical trend analysis).
b) Changes in consumer confidence less than 20% relative are a valid indicator of actual macroeconomic performance.
c) That the actual GDP growth is 8.2% annualized. (The SAUS data from the Commerce Dept. and from Treasury do not support this result. It's only >8% when leaving out the negative net export value, and this is mathematically and intellectually dishonest. It's also indicative of nothing.)
d) That the opinion of people who think jobs are hard to find is indicative of anything.

So, the report is nonsense. The article is amplification of nonsense, and no economist or analyst who's more interested in understanding true causative modeling of the macroeconomy (rather than finding nuggets of data that support existing preconceptions) would accept this ridiculous notion.
The Professor