Reply #2: Given the dynamics of a Arab emirate, that would cause a lot of problems [View All]

[happyslug]

While Abdullah (and his predecessor) call themselves "King" to imply the absolute rule of a medieval European Monarch, the power structure within the Ruling Family of the House of Saud remains more a Arab Tribal situation then an ABSOLUTE Monarch in the European sense of the word "King" (and most European Monarchs were not the absolute monarchs they portrayed themselves to be, but that is another Story).

In many ways the Arab tribes like the Old Roman concept of Family, the head of the Family was the Father and remains so till he was dead, EVEN AS HIS CHILDREN BECAME ADULTS. The Rule of the Father was absolute over is children right down to who they could marry (and even to FORCING his children to Divorce). The Father could even order his Children death. All this power was checked by the fact the Father needed Family support. If the Father ordered one of his sons to divorce a wife he loved and to marry another, the Son had to obey, but often hated his father for such orders. This hatred could manifest itself in ways within the Family that would undo all the plans of the Father. Thus the Father had to be careful NOT to cause to much problems within his own family. This was the main check on the Power of the Father under Ancient Roman Law. At the death of the Father, Each son became the head of his own family and the process started allover again.

In Arab Tribal situation the Rule is similar, the father can rule with an iron hand, but to do so would cause problems within the Family. On top of this is that the family is a member of a Tribe, and that tribe's Chief has the same power of his tribesmen as a Roman Father had over his Children (i.e. Absolute in theory, but checked by traditions AND power structure within the Tribe). Unlike the Old Roman Family, when a Chief died, the men of the tribe get together and select a new chief from one of their own members. Being an elected position, but one for life, the voting can be divisive. Thus more often then not the most forceful members of the tribe are past over for someone who knows how to make friends within the tribe. Who the future tribal leader knows outside the tribe is also a factor (Someone who knows no one outside the tribe, has few chances to make allies for the tribe, but one who has connection outside the tribe can make such allies. There is a careful balance among the men of the tribe to balance all of the interests of the men of the tribe (Women also have a say, but generally through their husbands, sons or father but no direct vote).

The House of Saud is still tribal in nature. The infighting among the branches of the tribe are known even outside the House of Saud (But much of the ins and out are unknown, or more precisely known to the family members but not to outsiders), The Classic example is old King Faud, he had a stroke in the 1990s that made him incompetent, but still alive. His Full brothers made a special effort to keep him alive to delay the selection of a New King (Abdullah was Crown Prince during this time period, the leader in fact BUT not the tribal Chief, which remained the then incompetent King Faud). Something happened about two years ago and Faud was permitted to die and Abdullah was elected King, something the Brothers of King Faud fought against for almost ten years. At the Same time Bandar was replaced as ambassador to the US and went for a rest in Europe (Through he seems to be back in power in Arabia). Something happened within the family about two years ago that forced the Brothers of King Faud to have King Faud replaced by Abdullah AND have Bandar replaced. Since that time something else has changed to permit Bandar back into the Government BUT not as Ambassador to the US. I do not know what, but the first event caused the House of Saud to WANT A KING and a KING perceived to be HONEST (Abdullah is considered the the most Honest of the original King Saud, died 1952, remaining sons). King Faud's brother were viewed as hopelessly corrupt so the rest of the Family was NOT going to vote for one of them (Thus King Faud was kept alive all those years to prevent Abdullah from becoming "King"). Something happened back then that forced the family to accept the Family needed a King Not a Crown Prince. I believe it has something to do with Iraq, I suspect it had to do with non-house of Saud tribes supporting the Sunni insurgents in Iraq (Most Arabs are more loyal to their Tribe and to Arabs everywhere then to their Countries).

People tend to forget that the border of Iraq and Arabia was drawn by the British in 1920 to a be the same line as the Operational radius of British Planes of 1920 when based in Air Stations in Iraq. This division SPLIT tribes between Iraq and Arabia and these tribes members in Arabia are supporting their fellow Tribesmen in Iraq (Both of whom tend to be Sunni). Tribal members are also probably crossing the Border to help tribal members in Iraq AND THOSE TRIBES ALLIES, which tend to be all of the Sunni Tribes in the "Sunni Triangle".

Thus I suspect one of the other tribes within Arabia started to DEMAND support from the House of Saud in the tries fight to get the US out of Iraq. This scared the House of Saud to elected Abdullah King, to crack down on el Queda in Arabia (and those Moslem Religious leaders that supported al Queda). Only Abdullah had the respect of the people of Arab to do both and both was done.

On the other hand, I suspect Abdullah stopped short of what the brothers of King Faud wanted and they are forcing King Abdullah to give more power to the Brothers (and their families and allies) and thus Bandar is back in the Government. One of the Brothers controls the better equipped Regular Army of Saudi Arabia, but Abdullah still controls the larger Saudi Arabia National Guard. Since most efforts to overthrow the House of Saud has come through the Saudi Arabia National guard, Abdullah is being blamed by the rest of the family for NOT cracking down on the Guard. This has weaken Abdullah in recent months so to strengthen himself Abdullah has distanced himself from the War in Iraq.

The House of Saud is coming to the end of its second generation of rules (i.e. the Sons of old King Saud), thus soon someone who is a grandson will become ruler of Arabia. Ruling dynasties tend to get very bloody when the third generation comes into power (and many may be fighting for power as I type).

The Ancient Romans knew you can NOT hold a family together once the Fathers and sons are dead, thus the Roman Rule that upon death of the Father, each son became the head of their own family. The House of Saud can not do that. The House of Saud wants control of the oil profits of Arabia, so the House of Saud can NOT just divide Arabia up among the Grand Children of old King Saud, all of them wants the oil to sell at the highest bidder. As the sons of old King Saud age and die, the infighting will increase. We are seeing the start right now but I believe you have a good possibility of Civil War in Arabia as the Grandkids fight over who gets the oil.