Reply #17: Right here. Lol. [View All]

[Frodo]

Ya really think 3% is "bad" news?? Sure, it doesn't hurt us politically, but to talk about FALLING to 3% after the last few quarters is hardly "I told you so" teritory. As much as some might wish it to be. Would you assume that the comparable figures from the '96 run were much higher? The four quarters ending in Q296 averaged 3.975% growth, while the four quaters ending in Q204 averaged 4.725%. In fact, here's the BEA figures for Q195-Q296 (1.1, .7, 3.3, 3.0, 2.9, 6.7) and Q103-Q204 (1.9, 4.1, 7.4, 4.2, 4.5, 3.0). How many of those comparable six quarters did Clinton beat Bush? But did we have some professarial types touting the awful economy while Clinton ran for re-election?

I really think calling me out over a 3% figure for one quarter (especially while ignoring the previous quarter's boost to 4.5% when some here were predicting a fall into the 3-3.5% range) is a bit of a stretch. I've never said that things were roaring along at a record pace, merely that they aren't "election issue" growth rates. I now think that I was wrong about Iraq (though Kerry is the wrong candidate to play that card as well as some), but my predictions (unlike some here with supposed credentials) have been just about on the money (pun intended).



I think the inflation measurement is more telling. Current-dollar GDP growth over the last four quarters has been fine (and that will eat in to the deficit somewhat), but higher than anticipated inflation (at least as measured by the deflator) has eaten in to that.