Reply #7: Denninger's take on the numbers. [View All]

[Dr.Phool]

September Unemployment: ACTUAL LOSS 995k

YOUCH.

Headlines: 263,000 "jobs lost" and unemployment rate up to 9.8%.

(charts)

That's not good - there goes the "second derivative" argument.

Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad news too.

But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)

Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.

Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.

That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!

The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.

The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!

The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.
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