Kerry/Edwards poised to get 384 electoral votes in a landslide [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

I used this site for current polling numbers:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I downloaded them into Excel, where I have the latest 3 years
DEm/Rep totals state by state. I adjusted the Kerry numbers by
adding 70% of the undecided, defined as the difference
(100%-Kerry-Bush) in each state.

Kerry is poised to get 384 Electoral votes in a landslide. The
key states to watch: AZ, WV, LA, VA, NC. If Kerry pulls ahead
in two of these states, Bush is TOAST. 
 
AdjK% = Current Kerry poll adjusted for 70% of undecideds
(which have gone 60-80% historically for the challenger)

CCG= Dem % of Total votes in last 3 elections (Clinton,
Clinton, Gore) vs. Repub (3rd parties excluded). 

The Dems got 52.6% vs. the Repukes 47.4% over the last 3
elections. 

The Kerry numbers are conservative (expect them to increase
by 2%), as they do not reflect:
1-Edwards
2-Plame indictments
3-Dem convention
4-Fahrenheit 9/11

* refers to Battleground state

	AdjK%	CCG	EV
AL	42.7	44.8%	
AK	37.1	37.6%	
AZ*	47.6	48.8%	< Kerry could win it (not incl in EV)
AR*	52.6	55.2%	6
CA	58.0	57.4%	55
CO	49.3	48.8%	9 < Kerry could win it
CT	62.6	57.7%	7
DE	57.1	56.8%	3
DC	90.4	90.3%	3
FL*	56.4	50.7%	27
GA	45.3	47.6%	
HI	60.9	59.0%	4
ID	39.0	35.7%	
IL	58.3	57.9%	21
IN	44.4	44.8%	
IA*	51.8	51.8%	7
KS	41.6	42.4%	
KY	45.3	46.7%	
LA	49.0	49.2%	9 < Kerry could win it
ME	54.5	57.1%	4
MD	59.0	57.8%	10
MA	65.2	65.3%	12
MI*	54.0	54.7%	17
MN*	53.5	55.7%	10
MS	36.3	44.3%	
MO*	50.1	52.5%	11
MT	42.8	44.9%	
NE	36.5	37.5%	
NV*	53.3	49.9%	5 
NH*	53.7	51.7%	4
NJ	55.8	56.5%	15
NM*	54.9	53.0%	5
NY	61.3	62.6%	31
NC	49.8	46.6%	15 < Kerry could win it with Edwards
ND	37.2	40.8%	
OH*	52.7	50.8%	20
OK	43.1	42.8%	
OR*	54.5	53.6%	7
PA*	51.4	54.2%	21
RI	64.2	65.6%	4
SC	43.5	44.4%	
SD	44.8	44.5%	
TN*	41.8	50.5%	
TX	40.8	44.3%	
UT	29.7	33.6%	
VT	60.1	59.4%	3
VA	50.6	47.3%	13 <Kerry could win it
WA*	52.8	55.9%	11
WV*	48.6	54.0%	5 < Kerry could win it
WI*	50.4	52.7%	10
WY	30.8	38.3%	
	 ?	52.6	384