This is interesting. I have calculated the Kerry/Bush popular
vote percentages, based on the latest state polls (mostly
taken in June), weighted by the electoral votes for each
state. And I assumed a 50/50 undecided split.
The resulting popular vote split is EXACTLY 50.0/50.0. This
confirms the 13-poll June averages (50.6 Kerry/49.4 Bush)
which are adjusted by the same (CONSERVATIVE) 50/50 undecided
split.
But here's the good news:
1) Kerry will get near 70% of the undecided, based on
historical voting analysis.
2) Even with a VERY conservative 50/50 split in the POPULAR
vote, the electoral vote probability simulation shows that
Kerry has an 80% chance of winning, because the electoral vote
distributions work in his favor (he wins the big states, Bush
has big leads in SMALL states).
3) With a current 52-48 split in the popular vote,
Kerry/Edwards is beginning to open up daylight and may be
pulling away from Bush. A November landslide is not out of the
question.
Bottom line, the independent analysis of state, national and
Electoral simulation model projections confirm each other.
13 -POLL AVERAGE Undecided Adj (50/50)
Month Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 40.8 51.6 -10.8 44.6 55.4 -10.8
Feb 47.4 46.0 1.4 50.7 49.3 1.4
Mar 47.4 44.7 2.6 51.3 48.7 2.6
Apr 46.5 45.3 1.2 50.6 49.4 1.2
May 46.5 44.4 2.1 51.0 49.0 2.1
June 46.9 45.6 1.3 50.6 49.4 1.3 <<<<<
July 49.0 45.0 4.0 52.0 48.0 4.0
Here is the simulation run based on the state polls.
Undecided to Kerry: 50%
SIM EV
1 279 Win
2 294 Win
3 303 Win
4 311 Win
5 325 Win
6 269 Tie
7 278 Win
8 265 Lose
9 294 Win
10 299 Win
AVG 292
Win 8
State EV AdjK Diff Prob(win)
AL 9 40.5 (19.0) 0.001
AK 3 38.5 (23.0) 0.001
AZ* 10 44.0 (12.0) 0.001
AR* 6 51.0 2.0 0.635
CA 55 57.0 14.0 0.990
CO 9 47.5 (5.0) 0.202
CT 7 59.0 18.0 0.990
DE 3 56.5 13.0 0.990
DC 3 90.0 80.0 0.990
FL* 27 52.5 5.0 0.807
GA 15 41.5 (17.0) 0.001
HI 4 59.5 19.0 0.990
ID 4 35.0 (30.0) 0.001
IL 21 56.5 13.0 0.990
IN 11 42.0 (16.0) 0.001
IA* 7 52.0 4.0 0.750
KS 6 40.0 (20.0) 0.001
KY 8 43.5 (13.0) 0.001
LA 9 47.0 (6.0) 0.145
ME 4 50.5 1.0 0.577
MD 10 57.0 14.0 0.990
MA 12 64.5 29.0 0.990
MI* 17 52.5 5.0 0.807
MN* 10 52.5 5.0 0.807
MS 6 34.5 (31.0) 0.001
MO* 11 49.0 (2.0) 0.375
MT 3 40.0 (20.0) 0.001
NE 5 35.5 (29.0) 0.001
NV* 5 51.5 3.0 0.692
NH* 4 51.5 3.0 0.692
NJ 15 55.0 10.0 0.990
NM* 5 53.5 7.0 0.923
NY 31 59.5 19.0 0.990
NC 15 46.5 (7.0) 0.087
ND 3 36.0 (28.0) 0.001
OH* 20 48.0 (4.0) 0.260
OK 7 40.5 (19.0) 0.001
OR* 7 53.5 7.0 0.923
PA* 21 52.5 5.0 0.807
RI 4 61.0 22.0 0.990
SC 8 42.5 (15.0) 0.001
SD 3 42.0 (16.0) 0.001
TN* 11 41.0 (18.0) 0.001
TX 34 41.0 (18.0) 0.001
UT 5 27.5 (45.0) 0.001
VT 3 57.5 15.0 0.990
VA 13 47.5 (5.0) 0.202
WA* 11 54.0 8.0 0.975
WV* 5 47.0 (6.0) 0.145
WI* 10 48.0 (4.0) 0.260
WY 3 30.0 (40.0) 0.001
538