1) It's a safe bet.
2) "a zone off the Pacific is being pulled in two directions" isn't a "prediction." It's an "observation." And if that observation is correct, it may be because someone else (say, the national geological survey, or "Microsoft Encarta") has already published it.
3) I'm not sure about his Sumatra "prediction," maybe I should look into it.
But good questions are:
1) How many times has he been wrong?
2) On the page where he "predicted" the Sumatra quake, when was the last time the page was updated? What's in the page's Google cache? What's in the Wayback Machine archive?
In any case, this is the first I've heard about this guy, so I'm happy to see more evidence and data.
Even whacked-out crazy people can come up with something honestly good.
For example, the nutjob from "Project Grizzly"
seems to have come up with a legitimately ground-breaking material that could be used to protect our troop vehicles. At least, from what I have seen on TV, it looks like his invention works.
So, in short, crazy (and even stupid crazy) people can sometimes be right.
So, let's see if someone here can find proof either way if they're so inclined.
In 1996 Project Grizzly took audiences on a bizarre quest with Troy Hurtubise, a "close-quarter bear researcher" obsessed with going face-to-face with a deadly grizzly bear. Eight years after its celebrated premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, Project Grizzly has become an international pop-culture phenomenon.
Directed by Peter Lynch and produced by The National Film Board of Canada Project Grizzly explores the territory between documentary and drama, where the dividing line between fact and imagination is as thin as a knife edge. In this twisted nature film, it is man, not bears, who come under the closest scrutiny. As a pop-culture phenomenon, Project Grizzly has gone where no Canadian documentary has gone before: Quentin Tarantino named it his favorite film of 1996, Harvard awarded Troy Hurtubise their Ig Nobel Prize in 1999 and in 2003 the ultimate compliment was paid as it was famously parodied on "The Simpsons".
More:
http://www.alcinapictures.com/reaction/film-grizzly.htmIG NOBEL UPDATE--
Troy's Blast Cushion Stands Proud
The further adventures of Ig Nobel winner Troy Hurtubise
by Alice Shirrell Kaswell, AIR staff
<snip>
Sharpshooter says Hurtubise invention right on target
by Phil Novak
BayToday.ca
Thursday, June 24, 2004
Capt. Keith Cunningham (Ret.) tried his best this past weekend to shoot the living daylights out of Troy Hurtubise’s newest invention, the light infantry magnetic blast cushion.
But Cunningham didn’t have much success, even though he was using a scary arsenal of high-calibre rifles and ammunition.
“I was very impressed with these cushions, particularly with the way they handled the .375 bullets from my elephant gun,” said Cunningham, during an interview from his home in Burnt River, Ont.
“No matter what calibre bullet I used they just couldn’t fully penetrate the cushions.”
Herculean protection
Hurtubise designed the cushions, made with specially treated Kevlar, ceramics, metal alloys and the force-absorbing system from his Ursus Mark-VII bear suit, to shield soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq from roadside bombs that have already claimed military lives in both countries.
More:
http://www.improb.com/news/2004/troy-cushion-2004-06.html