Reply #21: My analysis [View All]

[NewJerseyDem]

AK: I think we have a good chance here. This state is very conservative though and I think Murkowski will win if she does a good job connecting Knowles to the national party. Knowles could be hurt if ANWR is made an important issue in the presidential campaign.

AR: This state seems to be shaping up pretty well for us. Blanche Lincoln should be able to pull this one off. She is moderate on most issues and Arkansas just elected Mark Pryor. Neither of those potential challengers have much name ID so she should win here.

CA: Boxer will probably pull this one off but she is the most liberal member of the US senate so clearly that puts her at risk in any state. The republicans will certainly be confident here but they don't have a strong candidate yet. Rosario Marin is viewed as a bad candidate by republicans and they are hoping that former California Secretary of State Bill Jones will run. If he does, then he will be the favorite to win the nomination and could be a good candidate. If he doesn't run, David Dreier might and he could also be a threat. This race is worth watching but unless Jones or Dreier runs I think we will win here somewhat comfortably.

CO: Unless Udall or Hart runs, we're screwed. Campbell is a maverick republican and if Wayne Allard can win then Campbell can win. Mark Udall would make a strong democratic nominee and would have a chance. He may be too liberal though but he could still win. Gary Hart said he wouldn't run if Udall runs but if Udall doesn't than he hasn't ruled it out. I think that if Hart were to run he would be our best hope. This race is still somewhat unclear untill we know who is running.

FL: Basically, all the candidate here on both sides are horrible. The republicans are too right win and this is a swing state where I think the most moderate candidate has the best chance. The democratic candidates are just bad. Alcee Hasting probably won't win the nomination and would unelectable. Being an impeached federal judge isn't exactly something to put on the resume. Deutsch seems mean and Penelas apparently didn't reallys support Gore very much and has upset many black and jewish groups for some reason. Betty Castor doesn't seem to have as much baggage so she might be better than the others. That poll indicates that maybe she is in a strong position to win the nomination.

GA: Mary Squires is completely unelectable. If she is our nominee, then we lose to any of the republicans. I'm guessing that Johnny Isakson is the winner of the republican primary but Mac Collins has a chance. I just don't see Cain winning the primary. Hopefully, someone like Jim Marshall or Mike Thurmond will run because Squires can't win.

IL: I think we have a great chance here. This state has become very liberal recently. Illinois is our best chance for a pickup. Dan Hynes seems more moderate and will have strong organizational backing in the primary. I think he would be the best canididate in the general. Barack Obama is a strong candidate as well, but more liberal and Blair Hull will save the party a lot of money if he is nominated. My guess right now is that Obama will win the primary though because he is more liberal and may get a lot of the black vote. The republican canididates may be strong but Illinois is the second most liberal state in country to have a republican and I think that will end soon. Ryan will have issues since his last name is the same as the former corrupt governor and that probably hurt last year's republican nominee for governor who had the last name Ryan as well. If we run a strong, solid campaign we should win.

LA: If John Breaux runs then he wins. Since there aren't primaries really in Louisiana it is hard to tell who will be the "nominee." Presumably, Vitter and John would run but it is possible that enough other candidates would force a runoff. They are both excellent candidates and I think this race would be a tossup. Perhaps, we can see after the governor's election to see what the mood is in Louisiana.

MO: Almost certainly Nancy Farmer will win the nomination. Bond is always somewhat vulnerable and never wins by big margins. I think that he will pull off this race as well. Farmer doesn't appear to be an excellent candidate and most likely this will go to Bond with something like 53%. Missouri seems to have a lot of close senate races. This state is a swing state but seems to be leaning to the republicans recently. This should be an uphill battle.