Reply #23: Not this time. I'm for Dean but there are 800 Super-Delegates and he has [View All]

[Dems Will Win]

to win 60% of the rest to get to 2159, because he will hardly get any of the Super-Delegates (unless he really romps and is close to Bush in the polls).

There are no more Winner-take-alls in the Dem primaries! They were outlawed! Get 30% of the vote and you only get 30% of the delegates. If the polls don't change much, we could be looking at a brokered convention and an Anybody But DEan movement could easily succeed.

He not only needs to win, he needs to WIN BIG! Or the DLC WILL Stop him with the Super-Delegates in Boston.

Then all Dean's supporters will be mightily pissed off, and most of the extra 3 million youth votes Dean would bring in will disappear and Bush is re-elected. (Assuming the media will make Kerry or Edwards or Clark out to be a congenital liar and fool--Dean would be immune to that, obviously, as he is the new Mr. Teflon).