Leonid meteor shower [View All]

[ashling]

LEONIDS (maximum November 19; 4:45 UT
)
(radiant drift map from IMO)

Moon: New (no interference)

Best viewing window: European observers should have the best view, during the predawn hours of Sunday, November 19. North American observers (East Coast strongly favored) should start watching just before midnight on Saturday evening, November 18, and continue watching through the morning hours of November 19.

Recommended for: Anyone interested in meteor observing; just keep in mind uncertainties in predictions and don't expect to see any Leonids if you're watching before the radiant rises (11pm-midnight for most mid-northern locations).

Some years ago, when the teams of David Asher and Robert McNaught were making their groundbreaking predictions of Leonid storms and outbursts for the years 1999-2002, they also noted a possible outburst for 2006. This November, we'll find out whether that prediction comes true. On November 19, the Earth is due to pass through a trail of debris left by the Leonids' parent comet on one of its previous returns. A sharp peak of perhaps 100 Leonids/hour is expected, although there is a bit of uncertainty. If it occurs very near the predicted time of 4:45 UT, Europe and Western Africa will see the display during the favored morning hours. The East Coast of North America will see a bit of the display (maybe up to 25 per hour) as earthgrazing Leonids starting when the radiant rises at around 11pm. Depending on just how short and sharp this peak is, most of North America may be out of luck.

Breaking News: Mikhail Maslov has just released his prediction for the 2006 Leonids. He predicts the November 19 outburst to peak at 4:55 UT, with only ~35 Leonids/hour. Read his interesting paper.

The Leonids are very fast meteors. Most of the meteors seen during this outburst are expected to be faint, so dark skies will be very helpful. Even if you miss the November 19 outburst, the shower is active at a low "background" level for about a week from November 14-21. Expect about 10 meteors per hour on the mornings of November 17 and 18 due to this activity (best during the couple of hours just before the beginning of local morning twilight). A roughly equal number of sporadic meteors should be visible, along with a few late Taurids.