Reply #39: the twilight area of reading the future... [View All]

[pelsar]

it appears that what we are trying to do here is read the future, what kind of state will emerge from the palestenian people. One approach says let them have their state, and based on several assumptions it shall develop in to a responsable state that respects its neighbor borders.

approach 2 (mine) is more piecemeal, step by step. Milestones if you will. As each step is taken it is then evaluated with and end goal in mine.

Its obvious that each approach can simply backfire and in essence cause a terrorist state to develop. For the first, if the democracy movement, political will within Gaza/westbank isnt strong enough to overpower the other forces, hamas etc may simply take over.

For the second approach, the frustration at its slowness make cause the palestenians to become impatient and the hamas etc may take over.

Your base assumption the palestenian state now, presumes responsability in the western sense, improved lives, more freedom etc. Yet for some (the suicide bomber for example) has found self sacrifice to be his respsonability, to ensure a better future. Hence the definition of responsability of the palestenian state is not so concrete. But beyond that,
the first approach is also not practical from the israeli side. As we are very much a part of the equation, our internal politics demand that we isolate the settlers politically. That can only be accomplished when the majority of the israelis have confidence in the palstenians.

Without our "vote" the isolation of the settlers, the "gray rebellion" from within the IDF, will simply not happen.

I do understand that if we remove certain aspects of the occupation, improve their lives, this will increase the likelihood of a more favorable govt appearing. Unfortunatly our experience with "letting up" i.e. pulling back, usually results in some suicide bombings. (we usually "wait" for the next bombing to appear after a pullout is announced). But that is where Gaza comes in...this is the experiment. If the palestenians can make a society that we can live with, their expanding to the west bank are inevitable, since the argument that it endangers us will have proven false. And though it sounds patronizing to say to the palestenians " prove yourself first"....after 56 years of warfare, we are within those rights.

So what do we expect out of this "state"? and what right do we have to "judge it". Well for the second, whether or not we live in peace depends upon the character of that state, hence we do have that right. Our expectations is that be based on western democratic values. The reason being, with the exception of Turkey and Cyprus I dont know of any two democratic countires that fought each other. So we're going with that assumption democracies as a rule dont fight each other. Those values, along with the rest of the package such as civil rights etc must be present, as with those we can hope for a sociey that is intent on improving itself, that has a responsability towards that aspect and wont be looking for excuses. The palesteninans unlike their brethren in syria, iran, etc have been exposed to democracy (during their detentions in israel they organize various courses, amongst them are democracy in israel etc), and I believe the majority prefer that, but they will also need our help.

As you mentioned previously, a majority can lose to a smaller more vocal minority.. especially when they have the weapons. So though it may be hard to swallow for some, the Gaza first approach with us watching may in fact insure the implementation of a democracy within Gaza.

It may infact cost more in lives lost as the slow approach is taken, but once a path is chosen one never knows for sure what the path that wasnt taken would have meant. And if it fails there, our settlers will celebrate and the rest of us will accept that fact that they are right..... (that would be the implied result of a failed gaza)