Hillary may lose her edge among superdelegates [View All]

[Alhena]

Hillary has her large lead among superdelegates mainly because she was thought to be the inevitable candidate early on and some superdelegates wanted to get on board early. Thus, it's a safe bet that her early pledged delegates are heavily composed of political opportunists, and such people are notorious for changing their loyalties with the shifting political winds. And it's going to be very difficult for Hillary to stifle the winds of enthusiasm which will be blowing in from Obama supporters, assuming he does as well in the next month as pundits expect him to.

Another factor is that Hillary plays well with the blue collar workers, while Obama plays well with the elites and highly educated. And the superdelegates are mainly composed of members of that elite. I can guarantee you that Hillary has superdelegates who watch Obama give a speech and wonder how they can switch to him. Obama's natural constituency is people just like superdelegates- highly educated liberal Democrats. Why do you think Kennedy and Kerry both endorsed Obama even though most of the blue collar workers in Massachusetts voted for Hillary? Most superdelegates will WANT to vote for Obama, on a personal level, I can just about guarantee it.

Even if Hillary keeps most or all of her superdelegates, there are still a lot of unpledged delegates, and I expect most of them will follow the marching orders from the national party. And the national party will likely put its behind-the-scenes influence on the side of the candidate most likely to win in the general election. And that candidate is widely regarded as being Obama- a recent Washington state poll shows Obama beating McCain by 15 while Hillary ties him.

I expect that Hillary's superdelegates will be laying low to see how things develop, but Obama has a big advantage in that his best states are all in the next month, while Hillary has to wait for Texas and Ohio in March. So the bottom line is that, as an Obama supporter, I'm content to let the superdelegate process play out. It seems undemocratic, but the rules were set going into the game, and I'm not at all convinced that Obama won't win over most of the superdelegates if he does as well as I expect in the next month.