Looking forward: What are the swing states? [View All]

[Zynx]

The primary is pointless to discuss anymore so let us look forward to the GE and do so soberly.

Swing states are states that in a close election could go one way or the other. States that might flip in the context of a national landslide, like Oklahoma on their side or Illinois on our side, are not swing states.

I think in the case of Obama, a few states that are normally swing states won't be, with those being Arkansas and West Virginia. Conversely, I think he is more competitive in Nevada and Colorado than other Dems have been in recent years and I think he takes Minnesota out of contention.

I do not buy into the idea he makes any Deep South state a swing state. The simple reason for this is that we hardly ever crack 25% of the White vote in any of those states and I don't see why that would get any better this time.

As such, here is my list of swing states:

New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado(he seems unusually strong there)
Nevada
New Mexico
Virginia
Florida
Missouri

What do you guys think the battleground will be? I've seen a lot of talk about the Carolinas and Georgia, but I see little reason to hold out much hope there.

My final disclaimer is that this is assuming a close election. If he wins by a blowout and starts making states like Kansas competitive, well that doesn't really matter anymore since the election is already won.