Reply #89: I think everyone had a chance to prove themselves. [View All]

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Clark and Dean were the top two money raisers in the last quarter and led in the polling. They went from high to low (as did Lieberman, who was the favorite in 2002 and early 2003).

I think the only think that could have helped Clark is if the first primary were in June and not January.

But I really don't think you can blame the primary schedule for Clark starting too late.

Edit: For the last couple weeks I've wondered what Clark's strategy was in the primaries. It's sort of confusing. He must have known that he wasn't going to win NH (with VT and MASS next door). Perhaps he thought everyone else was going to bloody each other up with no clear winner going into the south.

His problem seems to have been (1) that Edwards came out of IA better than Clark expected and (2) that Kerry went 2 for 2 by respectable MOVs (rather than splitting with or narrowly losing to or defeating Dean). So, Clark not only had to play catch-up to Kerry (a nearly impossible task) but he also had Edwards moving towards the south being reasonably competitve. Clark and Edwards were just too close in OK for him to have a clear advantage over Edwards as things moved on, and Edwards really did well in SC (where Clark came in 4th behind Sharpton with 7%). So that was the end for Clark. Respectable showings for Edwards in Va and Tn were icing on the cake, and the first place finishes for Kerry confirmed that what happened in IA and NH was really a good reflection of how voters were feeling about the election: they thought Kerry had the best overall package, and they liked Edwards second best.

So TX, FL, Miss and La never became the prize that Clark perhaps thought they'd be if he could have stayed in the game that long without anyone else getting on a roll.

That doesn't mean the primary system is screwed up. It just means that Kerry was too strong, and Clark got a bad roll of the dice with Kerry and Edwards consistently coming in first and second, which was made all the worse for him because starting so late had seriously limited the range of possibilities for him.