Reply #15: My guess [View All]

[Yupster]

as to how this will end is not well.

The US will leave.

The government will try to govern.

The insurgency will not end. There will be massacres and assassinations, and eventually the government will step back and unleash the Sadr militia and other Shi-ite militias, and there will be massacres approaching genocide in the Sunni triangle as old scores are settled very harshly.

The Sunni population of Iraq will become refugees and will be killed or flee to Syria.

Then the UN will come in.

That's my guess.

Unlike South Vietnam, I think the Shi-ite dominated government can and will win the coming Civil War because it has unlimited and very committed manpower it can call on to sweep through the Sunni heartland in waves of destruction.

I think the Sunnis should hope we stay as long as we can, because after we leave things will get very bad for them.