Reply #9: It's not just Diebold - - gerrymandering affects the House a lot [View All]

[AlGore-08.com]

Most Congressional districts have been drawn to favor the incumbent - - it's very easy to do.

Say you have a county with three cities.

The largest city always goes Dem by around 65%.

The middle size city is a swing city - - it goes 55% Dem sometimes, 55% Rep sometimes.

The smallest city always goes Rep by around 65%.

You simply draw the district lines so that the areas which support Dems are divided. The parts that support Reps are joined together. Then you then take these pieces - - small Dem supporting pieces and larger Rep supporting pieces - - and join them together to make districts. If you do it "right", the numbers of folks in each district who support the Reps outnumber the Dems by such a huge margin that it is virtually impossible for the Reps to loose that seat. (By the way, this is not a new tactic thought up by the Republicans, this is a very, very old strategy and the Dems have used it too.)

That's why national polls are not the best indicator of how 2006 will go. You need to look at the polls in individual districts to find out of the swing to Dems is enough to carry that particular district.