Reply #10: Sen. Clinton has the Iowa lead in some polls, although not all polls, and [View All]

[saltpoint]

in most polls the differentials are squeeze-tight and close.

She could win in Iowa and would likely be hard to dislodge after that.

She could place second in Iowa and still make a convincing bid in New Hampshire. If she places a perilously close second in Iowa, she can still win in New Hampshire and be right back on top as frontrunner. She loses 5 days, tops.

If John Edwards and Barack Obama both defeat her in Iowa, the rationale for her as the nominee thins a bit, although is not disqualifying. She has South Carolina, where Obama is favored slightly at the moment, but I believe within the margin of error.

She has 3 good chances in that spread of scenarios to maintain front-runner status, or re-gain it if it's threatened in Iowa and New Hampshire.

If Edwards wins Iowa, voters in subsequent states will very likely be giving him a better look and fair reconsideration, and properly so. If Edwards wins by a lot, the politics of the party between Jan 4th and Feb. 5th are going to involve firebombings and ICBMs. The party will do whatever it can to stop him from winning the nomination. Clinton and Obama are the likely beneficiaries of that bias in this scenario, IMO.

Joe Biden's appeal in Iowa is undeniable but has yet to translate to double-figure voting support. That could change in only a few days' time. Primary elections have a way of being too fluid for predictions. Just ask Presidents Gephardt and Dean. Biden's qualifications are across the board, but Iraq remains a sour issue in voters' minds, even if the lackeys in the mainstream media aren't covering it any more. A lot of Iowa families have a stake in the Iraq War and Biden is extremely sure-footed in foreign policy. I would definitely not count him out as a top-three contender. And more, if Biden rises sharply, it will come at Sen. Clinton's expense, IMO.

An Edwards win in Iowa does not elect Senator Clinton. It puts greater pressure on her campaign to demonstrate a compelling rationale to be our nominee. And in any case Senator Clinton has to make her pitch to voters on her own terms.

Just my take.