Reply #3: Accordingly, Kerry could lose Ohio and Fla and still win [View All]

[osaMABUSh]

Total votes 322 + 205 = 527 This poll had TN as a tie with no one getting the 11 EVs. Let's give them to Bush for the 538 total EVs available.

Fun with electoral numbers:

Kerry 322 - 47(OH/FL) = 275
Bush 205 + 47 + 11(TN) = 263

Kerry could even lose NH or Maine (4 EVs) and still win.

Kerry 275 - 4 = 271
Shrub 263 + 4 = 267

Under this scenario Kerry would have to hold Iowa and Mo (18 EVs). I can see the strategy in picking Edwards over Gephardt: With Gep he has to give you Iowa AND Mo. assuming he can't deliver OH or FLA. With Edwards you bet he can just cement Ohio OR FLA. As a bonus Edwards may help more than Gep in Iowa (re: Iowa caucuses)

Kerry wins without the South. Bush wins the entire South. Kerry could lose all these states: AR, TN, FLA, NC, VA and WVA but still win the Presidency.