Reply #6: ARG is generally regarded to tilt about +2% DEM [View All]

[featherman]

but this is cautiously good news. I had considered WI the most in danger of the Upper Midwest's Big Five (IL, MI, IA, MN, WI). Bush campaign has enough money to continue spending in this region but I am guessing it will continue to strengthen as DEM over the next weeks.
In 2000 the Gore strategy was pretty solid. Lock down the three key regions: Pacific:(CA, HI, OR, WA)
Upper Midwest (IL, IA, MI, MN, WI)
Mid Atlantic/New England: (MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, VT, NH, ME)
Then add FL for the win.
That way some of the other "possible" states (MO, OH, TN,KY, AR, LA, WV, AZ, CO, NM, NV, etc) went didn't matter too much and were gravy if they went DEM0.
Well, we all know what happened.
This year Kerry campaign has more money and a motivated base so they can cast a wider net. But the "core" regions remain the same and unless Bush can make inroads into these three regions, the battle will be entirely fought in the borderline red states. This tilts the advantage strongly to Kerry barring an earth shaking catastrophe that alters the equation.