7/24/2004 KERRY: 98.4% WIN PROBABILITY with 331 EV and 53.16% of vote [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

IT'S NOT CLOSE!
									
Projections and EV Simulation Models created by
TruthIsAll									
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com									
State Polling data: Electoral-Vote.com 									
									
									
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION									
Kerry:	53.43%								
Bush:	46.57%								
Spread	6.87%								
									
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL									
National polling data from pollingreport.com
includes:									
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME									
									
Kerry	53.71%					
Bush	46.29%					
Spread	7.42%					
						
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL						
						
Most Likely Vote%;  Electoral votes						
Kerry 	53.16%	331				
Bush	46.84%	207				
Spread	6.31%	124				
						
Kerry wins	984	of 1000 simulation trial runs, 				
or a	98.4%	probability of winning the election.				
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
			
Data is downloaded from electoral-vote.com to Excel for the
forecasting model.			
One thousand  trials are run in each simulation.			
			
Kerry Forecast Statistics:			
Simulation I: Conservative Case 			
Assume	60%	of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.	
Receives	52.1%	of the vote.	
Wins	91.1%	of the trials 	
Average	310	electoral votes.	
Maximum 	416	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume	70%	of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.	
Receives	53.2%	of the vote.	
Wins	98.4%	of the trials 	
Average	331	electoral votes.	
Maximum 	423	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume	80%	of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.	
Receives	54.2%	of the vote.	
Wins	99.9%	of the trials 	
Average	352	electoral votes.	
Maximum 	434	electoral votes.	
			
			


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS			
(in millions of votes)												
Dem	138.75	52.6%										
Rep	125.03	47.4%										

												

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.00	48	47	49	46	na	45	na	50	48	50	49

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY												
												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
Monthly polling data from: 												
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY,
TIME												
												
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls												
adjusted by allocating  70% of undecided/other voters to
Kerry.												
												
												
`						
	10 Poll Average	Projection	
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.5	50.2	-11.5	46.5	53.5	-7.0
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.1	44.4	3.8	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	47.1	44.2	2.9	53.2	46.8	6.4
June	47.1	45.0	2.1	52.6	47.4	5.3
July	48.6	44.1	4.5	53.7	46.3	7.4
						
						
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:						
10-Poll Avg 	48.6					
+ allocation	5.1					
= Projection:	53.7	% of total vote.				
													
				Kerry:  Undecided/other allocation									
	Latest Polls		60%	60%	70%	70%	80%	80%					
	Kerry	Bush 	Proj %	P (win)	Proj %	P (win)	Proj %	P (win)					
													
CNN	49.0	47.0	51.1	64.3%	51.8	72.6%	52.2	76.8%					
AP	45.0	49.0	50.6	57.3%	49.2	39.5%	49.8	47.3%					
FOX	45.0	44.0	52.4	78.8%	52.7	81.6%	53.8	89.7%					
													
	46.3	46.7	51.4	67.4%	51.2	66.0%	51.9	74.0%					
													
													
IBD	44.0	41.0	52.6	80.7%	54.5	93.3%	56.0	97.7%					
ABC	46.0	46.0	48.5	30.9%	51.6	70.3%	52.4	78.8%					
NWK	51.0	45.0	54.8	94.7%	53.8	89.7%	54.2	91.9%					
ARG	49.0	45.0	53.0	84.1%	53.2	85.7%	53.8	89.7%					
NBC	54.0	43.0	58.4	99.7%	56.1	97.9%	56.4	98.4%
CBS	49.0	44.0	54.3	92.4%	53.9	90.3%	54.6	93.7%
PEW	46.0	44.0	50.2	52.7%	53.0	84.1%	54.0	90.9%
LAT	48.0	46.0	51.2	65.5%	52.2	76.8%	52.8	82.5%
ZOGBY	46.0	44.0	52.0	74.8%	53.0	84.1%	54.0	90.9%
TIME	50.0	45.0	52.0	74.8%	53.5	87.8%	54.0	90.9%
								
AVG	48.3	44.3	52.7	91.1%	53.5	95.9%	54.2	98.3%
								
								
								
								
								
								
								
								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..								

Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted								
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.								

The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread: Kerry - Bush. 								
The spread is comapred to the MoE.								
The greater the spread, the higher the probability that Kerry
will win the state.								

Most Likely Case								
Assume	70%	Undecided/other to Kerry						
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV					
Kerry	98.4%	53.2%	331					
Bush	1.6%	46.8%	207										

State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability 													
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. elections													
													
Hist%	Dem%	Kerry%	Kerry%	EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000									
Kerry	Vote	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Proj.	52.60%	53.16%	Win	351	372	278	309	305	393	275	390	326	363
													
AL	44.8	45.0	10.6		9	9							
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10	10		10	10	10	10	10	10	10
AR	55.2	50.6	56.0	6	6		6	6	6		6	6	
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55		55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1				9		9	9	9	9	9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3		3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	51.7	66.5		27				27		27	27	27
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1	15	15								
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3						11				
													
IA	51.8	51.9	68.3	7		7	7	7			7		7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8	6									
KY	46.7	45.3	12.0										
LA	49.2	49.0	40.1		9	9		9			9		
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7		4	4	4	4	4		4	4	4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.7	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	53.0	77.3	17	17	17		17	17		17		
MN	55.7	53.0	77.3	10		10		10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	53.0	77.3	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11		11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	53.2	78.8	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NH	51.7	52.6	74.2	4	4			4	4		4		4
													
NJ	56.5	56.6	95.1	15	15	15	15		15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	55.3	90.7	5	5		5	5	5	5		5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	48.9	39.2	15			15	15	15		15	15	15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	52.6	74.2	20	20	20	20		20		20		20
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	55.6	91.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	57.8	97.4		21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6		8				8		8		8
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7						3				
TN	50.5	50.8	57.9	11		11			11	11	11		11
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4	13		13						13	
WA	55.9	55.1	89.9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	47.2	24.2		5							5	
WI	52.7	55.0	89.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	53.16%	-	351	372	278	309	305	393	275	390	326	363