Is Clark's rise in NH coming at Kerry's expense? [View All]

[Clark4Prez]

It is been floated here on DU that Clark's rise in NH has come mostly from Kerry falloff. I believe the numbers tell a different story.

First a look at the numbers from the last week of December:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/demtrack04-07s.html

From Dec 26 through January 1-3, Kerry lost 5% and undecided lost 2%, putting 7% "in play" The following candidates numbers went up

Gephardt + 2%
Dean + 2%
Kucinich + 2%
Other + 1%


Which means that the Kerry and undecided loss was evenly distributed among four candidates (counting other and undecided as candidates), none of the "in play" numbers went to Clark.

Now, let's take a look at Jan 3 through today.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Kerry lost 3 points, from 14% to 11% and Dean lost 4, from 39% to 35%, Gep lost 1 point from 6% to 5% undecided lost 1% from 17% to 16% and other lost 1 from 1% to 0%. There are 10 percentage points "in play", let's see where they went:

Clark + 8%
Lieberman +2%


A look at the numbers shows that Clark's gain has come from a wide variety of candidates and non-committed voters and not just from Kerry fall out.