Reply #14: It *may* be true, however... (with link to website for more info) [View All]

[nashuaadvocate]

Kuozzman--

Check out a great post-election website, http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/exit-polls.html , for information on this issue. The organizer of the site has created a national map of the "4 P.M. exit polls." He explains how, allegedly, the 4 P.M. *national* exit polls oversampled for women -- 58% of the sample, rather than the proper 52% of the sample -- but he also notes that, despite the fact that women were 7% more likely than men to vote Democratic in 2004, this sampling error would only have caused (for example) Bush's national exit poll numbers to increase by 0.4%. So, while I haven't done the math personally, I'd imagine that even given that level of oversampling -- if in fact something like it happened in Ohio -- the results should not have been anything close to what they were (in Ohio, Kerry winning 52% to 48% at 4 P.M.; then "actual," final numbers showing Bush winning the state, 51% to 49%).

The News Editor, The Nashua Advocate
http://www.nashuaadvocate.blogspot.com/