Reply #176: Here is a subset of the 2 ballot type locations [View All]

[L. Coyote]

I just uploaded this Excel file to the server after doing the sort. It's still a bit of a mess, and may be missin a precinct or 2! The color coding is by ballot sequence. That makes the combination patterns readily apparent. One worksheet has the 2 ballot location precincts, the other a sort to only the "Crawl 1 and 4" combination, the one with Bush and Kerry votes swapping. I have not yet done stats on it, though it includes stdev for disqualified, a good indicator of cross-voting.

Back to your referenced post where you wrote:

"Note that Kerry's returns go down disproportionately to the increase in 3rd party votes ... A DROP OF OVER 30 PERECENTAGE POINTS!!!" You've got the picture!

In a 2:1 Kerry location, a 4% cross-over can shift the Kerry-Bush outcome 15%.

I'm still not at the answer to the question, "Which ballot patterns are in Kerry precincts?" Your graph seems to indicate what we can expect to find. We already know that with 5 positions, things are not equal given particular combinations at a locality!!

And this summary shows where the greatest number of non-votes are located, in Kerry precincts. Put 2 and 2 together....



I'm trying to write this up with more clarity than a threaded discussion. I'm uploading now, so you can check out the first example and the selection of precincts I'm using. I'll upload as I progress.