L Coyote posts: "We know that the pattern of machine distribution is not even. And the different ballot combinations do not produce equal switching either. Did their placement in key precincts skew the pattern?"
jmknapp post re his simulation: "Assumptions. Since I selected "ballots" at random from the 500,000-odd universe, the switched ballots would automatically reflect the Kerry percent.
And the precincts that had larger number of votes would thereby suffer more cross-voting."
L. Coyote post: "How many votes would Badnarik have gotten in Cuyahoga?
Certainly, less than his state-wide percentage. The state-wide percentage incorporates cross-voting, and Cuyahoga is different than the rest of Ohio, esp. given 66% Kerry support. Perhaps one-ballot precincts areour best clue.
This Cuyahoga statistical summary might help resolve the problem.
County percent: Cast Kerry Bush Badn. Per. Non-vote
count 1435 1435 1435 1435 1435 1435
mean 60.0 66.6 31.0 0.320 0.274 1.804
median 62.2 64.4 33.3 0.182 0.000 1.464
skew -1.082 0.113 -0.117 22.43 18.79 3.231
.5 trmean 61.7 65.5 32.2 0.136 0.084 1.527
stdev 9.34 17.46 18.19 1.70 1.38 1.42
One Ballot subset
count 177 177 177 177 177 177
mean 56.6 74.3 23.1 0.212 0.211 2.216
median 57.9 75.2 21.1 0.178 0.000 1.920
skew -0.562 -0.487 0.487 1.291 11.210 1.583
.5 trmean 57.8 76.4 20.8 0.143 0.078 1.989
stdev 9.80 17.56 18.22 0.248 0.712 1.561
And now a summary of actual numbers.
One Ballot Kerry b Bush non p
mean 312.2 0.93 102.3 9.226 0.746
median 298.0 1.00 76.0 8.000 0.000
skew 0.212 1.241 1.598 1.394 1.918
.5 trmean 304.1 0.640 81.6 8.157 0.371
stdevp 114.7 1.055 97.6 6.706 1.104
quart 1 232 0.000 18.0 5.000 0.000
quart 2 298 1.000 76.0 8.000 0.000
quart 3 401 2.000 169 13.000 1.000
Countywide
mean 275.6 1.174 134.2 7.457 1.116
stdevp 103.19 4.950 96.06 5.964 6.752
Using the one ballot group, the 0.5 trimmed mean is 0.640 votes. Given the skew, this is my best choice and may be high. Assuming honest ballots for these 171 precincts with no possible cross-voting, this multiplier yields 920 actual Badnarik votes in the precinct voting.
This is 0.153% compared to the inflated statwide 0.257%. That means about 765 cross-precinct votes for Badnarik were recorded.
This does not seem like a lot, but it has to be multiplied for its effect on the Kerry/Bush margin.
Using 0.150% Badnarik votes for all punch card votes in the state would then produce over 4100 cross-votes for Badnarik. Albeit Cuyahoga may be a skewed sample to apply to the state.
Badnarik's State Op-Scan percentage of 0.176 would mean a 3100 excess of Badnarik punch card votes statewide. So these two multipliers/estimates produce a 1000 ballot range, very rough estimating. Their mean times an adjusted multiplier (excess Badnarik/Joe's number roughly adjusted for Ohio) yields about 10,000 cross-precinct votes in Ohio. That's a really really rough estimate. Any refinements??
What's 10,000 cross-precinct votes in light of the fact that the Washington state governor's race was being decided by whose cars didn't start!! That before the hidden votes came to light and changes everything.
jmknapp post: "Well, in Cuyahoga I figured 0.4 votes loss of Kerry margin for each vote switched (randomly). So if 10,000 votes were switched statewide that would be about 4,000 votes of margin. Since Kerry is short by 118,000, not about to change anything."
L. Coyote posts: "Not all things being random impacts simulation models/complexities ...I can think of several off hand ...the correlation between high percent Kerry precincts and non-votes ... percent of Kerry vote shifts with the number of ballot orders at locations ... the uneveness of the ballot type distributions ... the number of non-votes also changes by ballot order numbers per location ... a correlation between number of non-votes and Kerry support ..."
"When the votes are converted to percentages yet another image emerges. First with the columns converted to total 100:
Votes Kerry b Bush Non p
5 3.180 2.57 2.26 4.51 2.05 1.19
4 17.271 14.78 15.21 22.69 12.24 14.37
3 32.090 31.81 30.01 32.78 31.14 26.36
2 34.939 36.84 42.72 30.61 39.29 49.84
1 12.522 13.99 9.80 9.41 15.28 8.24
All 100 100 100 100 100 100
Now compare that to the rows converted;
Total Kerry b Bush Non-Vote p
5 19,121 53.15 0.20 45.41 1.15 0.10 100
4 103,860 56.21 0.25 42.06 1.26 0.22 100
3 192,977 65.10 0.26 32.69 1.73 0.22 100
2 210,112 69.24 0.34 28.04 2.00 0.38 100
1 75,301 73.39 0.22 24.05 2.17 0.18 100
601,371 65.67 0.28 32.01 1.78 0.27 100
We are still assuming that ballots are marked by precinct and cannot be switched after they are marked. If that were not so, it would be easy to move ballots to the precinct where the punch matches your candidate and swap back an equal number with the same effect. That would explain ballots sorted by candidates seen in the recounts.
Statistical Summaries for the "Number of Ballot Orders" Subsets
% Cast % K % B % b % p % non
1 order
count 177
mean 56.61 74.31 23.05 0.212 0.211 2.22
median 57.85 75.16 21.13 0.178 0.000 1.92
skew -0.56 -0.49 0.49 1.291 11.210 1.58
.5 trmean 57.80 76.44 20.75 0.143 0.078 1.99
stdevp 9.77 17.51 18.17 0.247 0.710 1.56
min 28.83 27.21 0.96 0.000 0.000 0.000
max 86.77 96.23 71.48 1.068 9.091 11.00
range 57.94 69.02 70.51 1.068 9.091 11.00
2 orders
count 503
mean 58.59 70.16 27.07 0.350 0.380 2.04
median 60.07 70.03 26.95 0.166 0.000 1.67
skew -0.83 -0.12 0.14 15.64 13.68 3.63
.5 trmean 59.76 70.49 26.69 0.133 0.085 1.75
stdevp 9.73 17.46 18.18 1.577 2.145 1.63
min 14.59 31.37 0 0 0 0
max 82.32 97.73 66.51 30.827 38.188 19.27
range 67.74 66.36 66.51 30.827 38.188 19.27
3 orders
count 466
mean 60.97 65.84 31.93 0.271 0.230 1.74
median 63.28 64.36 33.57 0.189 0.000 1.46
skew 33.38 27.05 27.19 37.18 37.27 37.34
.5 trmean 62.87 64.89 33.04 0.131 0.090 1.51
stdevp 9.15 16.97 17.64 0.901 0.730 1.30
min 7.85 27.41 0 0 0 0
max 77.55 100 70.18 16.294 9.113 12.50
range 69.70 72.59 70.18 16.294 9.113 12.50
4 orders
count 238
mean 63.60 57.28 40.79 0.462 0.219 1.25
median 65.03 56.81 41.05 0.196 0.000 1.11
skew -1.59 0.55 -0.55 15.126 8.697 2.12
.5 trmean 65.04 56.29 41.85 0.164 0.094 1.13
stdevp 7.17 13.51 14.08 3.239 0.591 0.83
min 28.57 30.05 0 0 0 0
max 74.82 100 69.51 50.000 7.252 6.49
range 46.25 69.95 69.51 50.000 7.252 6.49
5 orders
count 49
mean 61.34 53.03 45.59 0.189 0.090 1.103
median 63.47 52.46 46.55 0.000 0.000 1.014
skew -1.56 0.28 -0.27 2.007 1.753 0.481
.5 trmean 63.03 52.69 45.95 0.095 0.008 1.067
stdevp 6.74 8.87 9.12 0.284 0.165 0.551
min 41.63 29.85 16.78 0.000 0.000 0.000
max 69.69 80.82 70.15 1.208 0.648 2.653
range 28.06 50.97 53.37 1.208 0.648 2.653
It's late. Time to rest.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore