Reply #3: Mathematical proof that the statement is incorrect. [View All]

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Let A represent the statement "your sample is representative of the total population".

Let B regresent the statement "exit poll results can be outside the MOE"

Since the case of B being true when A is true is outside the scope of your argument, which uses an error term based on the premise that A is false, it is portrayed logically as:

B iff not A

...which can be rewritten as...

A -> ~B

However, from the 2004 NEP report, we know that A is true, so substituting:

TRUE -> ~B

Therefore, or as we say in math:

___:cry:

:cry: :cry:

B is FALSE, rewriting into english:


"exit poll results can be outside the MOE" is FALSE

or

"exit poll results cannot be outside the MOE"

(EDIT: about part 1, it was me, in a post labeled "Wrong." Which, if I recall correctly, is mostly synonymous with "incorrect")