Reply #27: Sorry, I believe. Too bad you don't . What DO you believe? [View All]

[TruthIsAll]

I laid down the gauntlet? Very dramatic prose, I must say.
Especially after my dry recitation of the facts. Kind of makes
it sound sinister.

Well, thanks for kicking it up, anyway.

No, I'm not laying down the gauntlet. Just laying out the
facts and replacing an impossible result with a very plausible
scenario.

Now all THREE exit polls show that Kerry won, since we have
removed the 43%/37% cancerous mix as a possibility. This
raises many new questions. First and foremost: Why?

I'm sure that you and many others have in the past few days
learned some interesting new facts which you were not aware
of. I've never seen the IMPOSSIBLE 43%/37% demographic
questioned by anyone. Have you? Don't you find that almost as
odd as the numbers themselves?

IT IS THE ONLY DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHT WHICH CAN BE FACTUALLY
VERIFIED.
AND IT TURNS OUT TO BE AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

BUT YOU CHOOSE TO FOCUS ON THE ONES WHICH CANNOT BE FACTUALLY
VERIFIED, WELL AT LEAST UNTIL EDISON-MITOFSKY RELEASE THE RAW
DATA. WONDER WHAT WE WILL FIND UNDER THAT ROCK IF THEY DO?

It's been five months since the election. All the research,
all the PhDs, all the probabilities, all the anomalies, all
the naysayers - and the 43% never came up. Until now. And it
seems to have ruffled some new feathers.

To me it's worthy of the "smoking gun" tag. To you,
it's just another bad tooth which must be extracted.

So, what are you left to question:

1. Surely not the mix percentages. I will run other
combimations for you, if you wish. There is not much wiggle
room there. 
But let's keep it realistic.

2. The Kerry/Bush new voter split: The polls, from start to
finish, give Kerry the majority from 59-39 to 54-45. Not even
close. To take it down to 50/50 is really stretching
credulity, don't you think? Do you believe the original exit
polls are off by 7-9%? But, OK, I will run some sensitivities
there as well, if you wish. 
But let's keep it realistic.

3. The Bush share of the Dem vote. It was 8%, they raised it
to 10% in the final. But apparently, it's still not enough.
How much do you need, John? Fourteen percent? I'll run the
scenarios. 
But let's keep it realistic.

Meanwhile, we will stick with this:

Final Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Changed from an impossible 43/37 to a very possible 40/40.

VOTED
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.3%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	40.3%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	39.8%	90%	9%	1%
Other	2.6%	21%	71%	8%

	100%	48.18%	51.04%	0.78%
	122.26	58.91	62.40	0.95