Reply #12: Opinions are all over the map on this one [View All]

[TayTay]

It is one hellaciously big gamble on both sides.

First has to pull the trigger on the Nuke. He just has to. The Wingnuts are salivating all over this. Heck, even the Boston Globe today had an OpEd from the loathsome James Dobson (of the RW Focus on the Family) that is berating Dems and begging Frist to 'do it.' If Frist doesn't try to pull the Nuke, he has no chance with the Wingnut fundraisers for '08. Wingnuts never forget anything and they hold grudges. There is very little upside for Frist on this. If he pulls the Nuke, he pleases the Wingnuts, but pisses off business interests and other baseline Rethug backers who are making out pretty good in the 109th (weasel) Congress. (Moneywise.)

I think Reid also has no choice. If he compromises on this, then the Dems will piss off their base to an enormous degree and this will have serious repercussions in fund-raising and getting supporters out in '06 for various races. This is an 'eyeball-to-eyeball,' see who blinks first, option.

I think the Dems win, even if they lose. The Dems can slow down the Senate and try and avoid the obstructionist label, which I think they can. The Dems are not threatening to close up shop and go home. They are threatening to slow everything down and to use obscure rules to bring a laundry list of Dem legislation to the floor. (Kerry's KidsFirst, I'm sure will be one of them.) The Dems will face NO real opposition from their base to this. (There will be some opposition from the moderate/conservative Dems, but not that bad.) We (you and me, the base of the party) are in no real hurry for the Senate to resume normal business, since that business has been all bad. (Please, I can wait forever rather than see Part 2 of the Bankruptcy Bill come to the floor.)

Reid has done extremely well. He has given the WH so much angst that Karl Rove recently went to Nevada to meet with people about how to pressure Reid to not be such a pain in the arse for *. (Hahahaha!) Reid can give his guys (the DSCC) a chance at some genuine issues. Senate Dems can campaign on the idea that they tried to preserve the Constitution and the traditions of Senate and were forced to do what they did becuase of extremist winguts. I think Reid has played it well.

See yesterdays E.J. Dionne column. He quoted one of my favorite fighting phrases from last fall. I don't think Reid liked it anymore than I did:

Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform and a leading figure in both the DeLay and Bush political operations, chose more colorful post-election language to describe the future. "Once the minority of House and Senate are comfortable in their minority status, they will have no problem socializing with the Republicans," he told Richard Leiby of The Post. "Any farmer will tell you that certain animals run around and are unpleasant. But when they've been 'fixed,' then they are happy and sedate. They are contented and cheerful."

If you wonder in the coming weeks why Democrats are so reluctant to give ground, remember Norquist's jocular reference to neutering the opposition party. Democrats are neither contented nor cheerful over the prospect of being "fixed." Should that surprise anyone?