Reply #24: reality check [View All]

[onenote]

Yes, every seat in the House of Reprsentatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate are "in play".
But as a realistic, practical matter, the vast majority of the elections are not competitive. The power of incumbency, gerrymandering, and regional differences all make the results in certain races a foregone conclusion. In many of these races there is nominal opposition, but the opponent has essentially no money, no name recognition, and no chance.

Whether the number of races that are competitive is 30-50 or more like 60-70 is something that we wont' know until the votes are counted. And a number of the races in which incumbents won with 70 plus percent of the vote in 2004 probably will be closer this time around, but the outcome is not seriously in doubt in most of them.