Reply #40: You won't get any sort of coherent response because the [View All]

[Igel]

underlying assumptions are too different.

Those that think all the dead Iraqis are at the hands of American-backed death squads are likely to think that with the US out all will be fine and dandy.

Those that think that Iran's in Iraq up to its navel, killing Sunnis and other non-Iran-supporting Shi'a are unlike to want the US out unless they think Iran is a good actor.

And so it goes.

My assumptions are fairly simple, and I simply don't know about Iran or Syria. I think the NIE portion that was released--not the portion leaked--is on the money. To stay is bad; to leave, likely worse. This doesn't provide a solution, and leaves out Iran and Syria, not to mention Egypt and Sa'udi Arabia. But it provides a constraint I think should apply to the set of possible solutions.

The Afghan Arabs were emboldened, and spread as victors after the Soviet Union left. Their supporters in the Pakistani madaris sent their tulaab--their 'talibs', aka the Taliban--to restore the proper kind of order, and that resulted in yet more Afghan deaths. The Afghan Arabs were in Bosnia; they were in Albania and Serbia. They were blowback for Sa'udiyya and killed there, as well as aiding and assisting in Yemen, Kenya, Indonesia, and Tanzania.

Most people seem to acknowledge only the leaked portion of the NIE, claiming that the NIE is gold when it agrees with them and shit when it doesn't, an extreme case of confirmation bias. While that might be the case, they need to provide evidence for that beyond their beliefs.