I'm not feeling very confident right now. [View All]

[Drunken Irishman]

I'm not trying to be negative and I don't want to sound too negative, but right now, I'm pretty depressed.

Firstly, let me state that I understand Clinton can't overtake Obama in the delegate count. She knows this, I know this and the media knows this. So she's going to try and win it another way and it's pretty much setting up how she planned. Take PA by a larger than expected result and use that as a foundation for her electability argument. The reason I'm depressed is that it appears the media is siding with her on this one and once the perception of her being more electable gets out, Obama will take a hit, as Dean did in '04.

For Obama, he can pretty much end this by winning Indiana and taking North Carolina by 10+ points. If he does that, anything Clinton gained from PA will have been lost and her momentum thwarted to the point where Obama should cruise to the nomination. However, if Obama loses Indiana, he will lose the nomination and I hate saying that, because it shouldn't come down to just that state. If Clinton wins Indiana and loses North Carolina, it will be the game changing moment she's been hoping for. Whether we want to believe it or not, Obama has been picked to do well in Indiana because A) it's a neighbor state and B) he's led in every recent poll there since that last SUSA poll had Clinton up double digits. As Chuck Todd says, this race ends the second a candidate wins a state they weren't expected to win. Obama could have ended it Tuesday, but didn't and Clinton can end it next month if she takes either Indiana or North Carolina (though obviously she has a better shot at Indiana).

So I know you're all thinking even if Clinton wins Indiana, she won't win enough delegates to take the nomination. But I think basing the results solely on the delegate count is becoming less and less likely. This race is turning into one over electability and if more and more people buy into the argument Obama can't win, then I don't doubt Clinton will take the nomination. It won't be right, it won't be popular, but it will happen if Obama fails to win Indiana. And right now, I'm not so confident he wins that state.

Hopefully I'm wrong, though. And for what it's worth, I will never, ever throw my support to Clinton while Obama is still in the race.