Reply #17: oh BTW it's not going to be much of a disaster, lol... [View All]

[GSLevel9]

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

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2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.