What Happens When Robots Replace Cheap Labor?

[txlibdem]

We all know why our factories are moving to China: cheap human labor, far cheaper than we could ever sink to ($1.36 per hour). Well, there's a new twist to that story: FOXCONN, the troubled Chinese factory that manufactures goods for a certain (very popular) US electronics firm is buying ONE MILLION factory robots. You heard that right. One Million. And they will certainly be laying off many of their employees when the robots start churning out products.

I missed this report when it first came out but Forbes took a look at that story and thought: this will be good for American Jobs!!!

8/15/2011 @ 6:45PM |2,490 views

What Happens When Robots Replace Cheap Labor?

Even with this kind of wage pressure, pay is still very low. A Department of Labor study estimated that manufacturing workers in China earned $1.36 an hour in 2008 — about 4 percent of what an American worker made and less than wages in Mexico, Brazil, the Philippines and even India.

It's hard to believe that hundreds of millions of Chinese can move quickly up the economy's "value chain" to become tomorrow's nurses and engineers. In the meantime, as robots take over more work, the millions trapped in the countryside will have even fewer opportunities.

I'd argue that this loss of opportunity would extend to urban areas in China, as well. Not only are opportunities for rural workers going to go missing, but urban workers are going to lose jobs and opportunities as well. This will be especially true if, as I've suggested, cheap robot labor makes Western countries more attractive to locate factories to, because there are more educated workers and a better infrastructure for high tech. If that turns out to be the case, then that would impact higher skilled jobs, as well.

In the West, we've had over a century to adjust to automation and outsourcing in manufacturing, and one way we've coped with that is to divert to a more service-based economy. Developing nations won't have that chance. As Frank Tobe and Manoj Sahi note, FoxConn's move towards more robots will more than double the number of industrial robots in the world — in less than five years. That's a tough adjustment for even a robust, advanced economy."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/08/15/what-happens-when-robots-replace-cheap-labor/

Slate took the wrong message from this headline.

"

Will Robots Steal Your Job?

You're highly educated. You make a lot of money. You should still be afraid.

By Farhad Manjoo|Updated Monday, Sept. 26, 2011, at 4:20 AM ET"

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/robot_invasion/2011/09/will_robots_steal_your_job.html

I say: let the robots do the hardest and most dangerous work. Humans should be free to get an education and get to work solving the innumerable problems that improper or ignorant use of old technologies has brought us.

Marshall Brain has taken the same view:

"The arrival of robots should be an amazing time in human history. With robots doing all the work, we should in theory be able to enter an era of incredible human freedom and creativity. Instead of turmoil and massive unemployment, robots could theoretically release us from work. A significant portion of the population should be able to go on perpetual vacation and achieve true freedom for the first time in human history. This freedom would enable a period of creativity unlike anything that we have seen in the past. Is there a way to design the economy so that this level of creativity is possible?

Think about the era we are about to enter. Within 50 years in the likely case, and without question within 100 years, robots will perform every task essential to human survival. Robots will grow, package, transport and sell all of the food we eat. Robots will build all of the housing we live in. Robots will make, transport and sell all of the clothes we wear. Robots will manufacture all consumer products, put them on the shelves and take the money that we pay for them. And so on. Robots will displace the tens of millions of employees who are doing all of this work now.

In our current economic system, all of these displaced workers will become unemployed. If they are not able to find new employment quickly, they will burn off their savings and they will become homeless. "If you don't work, you don't eat" is a core philosophy of today's economy, and this rule could make a rapid robotic takeover extremely uncomfortable for our society. See Robotic Nation for details.

The question to ask here is simple but profound. Does the economy have to work that way in a robotic nation? Is there a way to eliminate this dependence on a job? With the robots doing all of the work, can we actually eliminate our economy's requirement of employment? Can human beings, in other words, actually achieve true freedom as the robots make this freedom a possibility?"

http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-freedom.htm

Embrace the robot: HE WILL SET YOU FREE!!!

[Deep13]

1. With robot labor there comes a need to find ...

... a way of distributing income besides works.

[valerief]

2. Either the wealthy share resources or humans destroy robots. nt

[LongTomH]

5. The 'Technoprogressive' position

Embrace the End of Work:
The wealth and leisure created by automation should be shared equitably by all through a basic income guarantee and shorter work week.

From the Overview of Biopolitics page at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies website.

All of the new emerging technologies - robotics, nanotechnology. and artificial intelligence - have an enormous potential to improve human life; but, we need political reform or the benefits of the increased productivity from these new technologies will go only to the upper 1%. We could have a world of 'radical abundance,' in Eric Drexler's words or we could have 4th world squalor for the majority and an unprecedented opulence for the 1%.

[txlibdem]

12. The 1% can only benefit when there are millions of wage slaves

When robots are doing all of the work, the 1% are "out of a job" so to speak. There will be no need for Capitalism, no need for money, no need for any of us to do anything we don't want to do.

Some people will truly want to continue working but I don't think they should receive a wage, I believe the age of money as an exchange system is over today. In another couple of decades when robots are doing all the work, even around the home, there will be no reason for money.

Some people will feel lost for a while... but their kids will go with it and learn more than you or I could ever dream. This is the legacy we should leave for our children: FREEDOM on a clean planet free of fossil fuels and chemical contamination.

[RKP5637]

3. Theoretically IMO anyone can be replaced by a robot - physically/mentally. In fact, our

whole congress could be replaced by sw. And a lot cheaper. ... but, do we want to do it, and what's the eventually for humanity - obsolescence? I ponder these things so the rest of you can sleep at night while I'm awake. lol

[txlibdem]

6. Look at history: who was it who made the greatest breakthroughs??? Wage slaves? Surfs? No.

It was the leisured class, those with the time to devote to the study of science, the arts, writing, etc.

When robots are doing all the work, there will be no workers to buy products, what is Capitalism then??? Nothing. A relic of a horrible time gone by... the Dark Ages on steroids.

The Church used to encourage its priests and monks to study the world and learn about it. Look at all of the scientific advances, the expansion of our understanding of the world and of ourselves that came from these cloistered persons whose only job was to "seek the truth about God's creation." The modern churches of course are all anti-science, anti-technology because the science advanced enough to call into doubt their belief systems. I have no opinion on why they should feel that way. The more I learn about science and the universe (and possibly the Multi-Verse), the more I marvel at what God has wrought (or what the big bang and billions of years of random chance caused if you like).

When robots are doing all of the thoughtless jobs that people are doing today, we will be free to tackle the *really* tough job: undoing the damage that rampant and ignorant Capitalism has caused to the planet and to our health.

There are always going to be people who are too lazy to do anything. Forget about them, they will be nothing but a footnote in history. Then think of the few, those marvelous few that will advance our understanding of science, the world, technology, computers, the Universe, etc., far beyond what we can conceive today. It will be the greatest expansion of human knowledge in the history of our species.

I look forward to our robot saviors, the robots that will free us from wage slavery, drudgery, ignorance and dependence on an outdated model of society that only works for some and not for the rest.

[RKP5637]

9. Good summary!!! Much will boil down to who controls the robotic society IMO. n/t

[txlibdem]

24. When you say who controls the robotic society I'm not sure of your meaning.. pls explain a bit more

We have 3 possibilities:
1. A twisted 1-tier society as in the movie Soylent Green, where there is the rich class (humans) and the poor are scooped up and taken off to processing plants to be made into food. Or they just get their robot tanks to kill the non-rich. Or kill us in any of a thousand ways.

2. The robots do all the work and the rich are the overlords in a new Thousand Year Reich where the rest of us are housed and fed but are slaves (eg., George Orwell's 1984).

3. The wealthy give up their pretense of having any control and we all share the bounty of this planet equally. A new society emerges where the masses are so well educated that all of our environmental and societal problems are resolved in decades and technology advances by leaps and bounds till we are a space-faring civilization... at which time any talk of scarce resources disappears as we have the resources of the entire solar system at our disposal (including the asteroid belt and the Oort cloud).

Are any of these what you had in mind or is there another I haven't thought of.

[RKP5637]

28. In my mind the optimal would be your scenario 3. However, I'm concerned

given our present PTB structures we could pass into your scenario 2.

However, progression to scenario 3., without going through scenario 2., could be accomplished by an intelligent group that simply outsmarts TPTB. As we used to say, "Geeks Shall Inherit the Universe."

Longterm, I seen the complete melding of man-machine. And then to me that begs the question what was man in the first place ... perhaps a machine to start with ... capable of self-replication and enhancement to the earlier machine.

Someplace interlaced into all of this I see corporate wars, as corporations out-pace a public government concept and the corporations war for king of the mountain.

In the worst case we would end up with Soylent Green if people allow themselves to be blindly led and trust TPTB too much as the gospel truth.

As to who will control the robots ... I think ultimately it will be those that really understand how the robots work, not superficial, but a deep understanding. Politicians IMO will eventually be totally obsolete, there will be no need for them, they are archaic and belong to the tribal period of man. ... and capitalism will be archaic as well, belonging to the tribal period of man.

[RC]

4. How versatile are these robots?

If they were bought to make say, buggy whips, what could they be adapted to make when there were no more buggies to whip?

[mpgalloway]

7. Man needs slaves, war, and the poor to feel good about himself!

I remember college classes with 300 students in the room.
The teachers assistant would pop in a video tape for the
class to watch for an hour and later be tested on.

I realized then that we could not wait to automate everything
and have a few own it all and make slaves of the rest of us.

This is going to be sad and tragic to watch unfold but is now
an inevitable part of our human greed and stupidity.

[txlibdem]

10. Industrial robots are programmed to do one task, over and over and over.

They can be easily reprogrammed to do a different task (over and over and over).

More versatile robots are being designed in other countries (NOT the USA).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rokOtmUhos0
and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIuRc1r_N34&feature=related
... If robots can dance in unison then they can work on the farm (given proper sensors and software), or any of a thousand other places.

And there's Asimo from Honda:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3C5sc8b3xM&feature=related

Robotic assist will enable our returning soldiers (or anyone currently unable) to walk again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkUcuKbX5us&feature=related

Exoskeletons can increase what humans are capable of doing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kat8I5UM_Vs&feature=related
Replacing a missing hand:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wwoeZVvJlo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABfj8AK-X04&feature=related

[HockeyMom]

8. Have you seen that commercial about the robot day care?

Woman is complaining about the cost of day care. So she sends her two kids to a day care with a robot because it's cheaper than one with live people. The robot calls her daughter "female child" and squirts water in her face when handing her a drink. Then it carries her son screaming and kicking across the playground.

"A few kinks?" "Well, maybe", says the Mom. It is funny, but the MESSAGE is very, very true. You cannot replace a person with a robot.

[txlibdem]

14. American TV and movies are chock full of examples of "the bad robot"

Why do you think that is? So the rich can keep us as wage slaves, under their thumb and fully under control... just so they can live lives of fantastic leisure. Other countries are working on robots that will be truly capable and will be enjoyable to be around. Once again the US will be buying from other countries what we should be making right here on our soil. Stupidity, bias, and ignorance is the only reason why we are not the world leader in robotics (anymore).

When robots take over a job they will be fully tested beforehand and will be suitable to the task.

That said, maybe daycare isn't a good first test for human-interacting robots. Perhaps something like this (only a lot smarter):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqIGDAj7KYk&feature=related
... like the teddy bear from the movie AI, very smart and protecting of the child. But also educational and responsive to a child's needs. Maybe the best "daycare" is right in your own home (where you can monitor what goes on and have cameras to watch your child learn.

[provis99]

11. American factory employees average $34 an hour?

I call bullshit on that. They're lucky if they get $9-10 dollars working at a company like GM, and they no longer get benefits, either.

[provis99]

13. Marshall Brain is completely deluded.

Capitalism does not necessarily function by generating new capital; in fact, a capitalist undergoes cheaper costs if he simply appropriates capital from other people by use of political power (eg eminent domain, or slanted tax policies like the flat tax). Capital will continue to concentrate into the hands of future monopolies and monopolists.

The trend is towards getting rid of welfare, not increasing it. Brain is completely nonsensical if he thinks the wealthy are simply going to give us welfare and support "lazy" or "useless" people. None of his "solutions" explains why the wealthy would go along with it. It the wealthy were interested in welfare, we'd already have welfare states. The wealthy will simply appropriate any money generated for themselves.

He is seriously deluded as to how the political system works. If the political system were responsive to the desires of the 99%, we'd already have the massive welfare system he envisions. The system, as the 99% have been complaining, is to ensure the wealthy are protected and given increased power at the expense of everyone else. To say that somehow this will be helped by massive tax increases on the wealthy is so laughable as to be beneath contempt.


Here's a more likely scenario, once robots take over employment from the rest of us:
Those without employment will become homeless, or swept into zoned ghettoes to fend for themselves as the survival of the most vicious takes over. The wealthy will continue to use their political power to increase movements toward aggregation of capital. A less cheerful outlook is debt prisons, slavery, and possibly extermination of surplus labor.

The wealthy will need robots; they will not need the rest of us.

[txlibdem]

15. You assume the same political and economic system survives

It will not.

[provis99]

16. then you are completely deluded.

You have absolutely no proof the system will suddenly change from the way it's been since the dawn of time until today.

If any of what Brain proposes were possible, democracy would have already done it!

[txlibdem]

18. I guess we shall see, shant we?

The possibility of Capitalism lasting even 20 more years is remote at best.

[ThoughtCriminal]

17. Grovelbot is looking for a new job

but I'm not stepping aside yet.

[rhett o rick]

19. Even capitalist Henry Ford knew that he needed workers earning money to buy his products.

If robots are making all the products and the humans arent earning wages, who will buy the products?

[txlibdem]

21. If the 1% cared about Americans buying their crap do you think they'd be shipping our factories out

...to China, Indonesia, etc.

It looks to me that the 1% realize their scorched Earth policy, not only here but everywhere in the world, is killing the very customer base that they rely upon.

[rhett o rick]

23. Yes they may realize it but wont do anything about it. It's like whose not going to be involved

when the golden goose is killed. They may think that killing the Golden Goose is wrong, even disaster for their future, they dont want to be the one that steps back while their greedy friends take advantage. Greed is a disease. Even if they know they got it, they cant stop.

[txlibdem]

25. I agree with you up to a point

But, as you say, the golden goose will be dead. The fact is the golden goose is dead right now, today (the golden goose is the middle class). So the 1% can turn towards China or other developing nations to suck the life's blood from their middle class but the American and European middle class is spent, done, kaput.

This OP is about ONE MILLION robots replacing cheap labor in a single Chinese factory. But the implications go far and wide beyond that. That scene will be replicated a thousand times all over the world. There will be fewer consumers, fewer consumers mean fewer purchased crap, less crap sold equals lessened or zero profits. The rich are already f**ked and they may not even know it.

[rhett o rick]

26. The US midle class collectively still has a lot of wealth ready for the picking.

But when the middle class does go broke, who will the robots be making products for?

[txlibdem]

27. I'm looking at it from a worldwide perspective

The lower middle class has already slipped into poverty - 45 million Americans are now on food stamps! Now that I'm disabled I don't know if we're still middle class or working poor (my wife took a 2nd job to make up for my loss of wages).

The middle class certainly isn't buying like they used to. People are only buying the necessities and very little else.

[saras]

20. The robots will be owned by, and serve, the 1%. Replaced workers will include police and judges.

[txlibdem]

22. Replace the Judges? That will be a glorious day indeed!

+1