How much of this bird flu stuff is hype and panic, and what is realistic?

[Skidmore]

Any experts here?

[ecstatic]

1. do you have access to c-span?

Two writers are on Wash. Journal talking about what they saw in Asia (bird flu victims).

[niceypoo]

15. The timing is suspicious

[Silverhair]

17. The timing began with the UN over a year ago.

You are just now noticing it.

[zanne]

36. The issue of Posse Comitatus is being overlooked.

Bush went on national television, not to tell us how hard we're going to try to get a vaccine for this, or to tell us that we're going to work hard to get our doctors and hospitals in gear well before a flu could hit here, but to tell us about the lifting of Posse Comitatus--giving the military police powers over citizens of the United States. I don't understand how we're letting fear take precedence here. Doesn't the idea of a lifting of Posse Comitatus even bother anyone? This a a huge deal!

[Silverhair]

41. Yes, it is a big deal.

Most of my posting is against those who claim that this is a phony crisis for political purposes.

Avian flu is a very real potential danger to humanity, and tinfoil hat thinking prevents looking at this logically.

[NNN0LHI]

2. No expert here. But it is very DANGEROUS!

Plus I own Tamiflu stock and mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Don

[HereSince1628]

3. More than you want to know, a bit dated, but IMO good background

http://www.synapses.co.uk/science/fluvirus.html

[Hubert Flottz]

4. I had to get some series nerve pills for my finches.

Gloom, despair and agony on we...

When was the last time any Good News, came out of the White House? I think the GOPers are using the bird flu thing like a regular political "Terra-lurt", designed to take the spotlight off of the Keystone Con's misdeeds and shortcomings.

[Silverhair]

11. Is that why 80 Nations are having a conference about this?

Wow!! Amazing that Rove has the power to scare 80 Nations with it!! Today, there is a conference of 80 Nations to discuss and plan how to deal with this on a global scale.

And over a year ago the World Health Organization (That is a part of the United Nations.)began to issue warning about Avian Flu.

Are you saying that over a year ago Rove was such a mastermind the he was able to get the UN to cooperate with him so that he could make a big deal of it now?? Is Rove really able to look over a year ahead and manipulate the UN?

Or is it possible that the UN is right, and that W just now caught on?

Take off the tinfoil hat. It is squeezing your brain.

[Hubert Flottz]

25. "Take off the tinfoil hat. It is squeezing your brain."

I'm saying that the GOPers made a day long show out of the issue a week ago and also that they will grab any issue handy on their "BAD DAYS" and use it to deflect public attention from other "Real" things. Things like Treasongate, Iraq, New Orleans and so on. Bush knew about the flu a year ago, like YOU and I and the UN knew, so why nothing from him until a week ago, when the news about Karl hit the headlines?

My point was the GOPers will use, to their advantage, anyone, or anything, without remorse or guilt. Bush suddenly caring trips my red flags!

BTW, I'll wear my tinfoil hat, until they pry it from my cold, dead, equally silver, head! It's my head and it's my foil, you may think, or do, as you damned well please and so will I.

Good Day.

[jsamuel]

5. 35,000 people die every year from the NORMAL flu in the US

60 people have died in Asia this year from the bird flu. That should put it in some perspective.

[Silverhair]

7. You are ignoring the percentages.

If Avian Flu had no potential for greater harm, nobody would give a care.

Regular flu is highly contagious, but only kills in less than one in a thousand cases, and even then it kills those who are already on the edge of dying.

Avian Flu kills about 50% of those that get it. Flu is RNA based and easily mutates. If it mutates to a highly contagious human form and retains it's lethality, then humanity has a serious problem.

The concern is NOT in the absolute numbers that are currently killed. The concern is in the percentage of patients that die.

[Skidmore]

10. But, conceivably, it could mutate more than once after

crossing to humans and that secondary (?--not sure that this the right term) mutation can make it become less virulent as well, can't it?

[Silverhair]

12. Yes. The 1918 flu did, but that was AFTER it killed 675,000 Americans

and between 50 to 100 million world wide. And that was on a much smaller population base.

[NNN0LHI]

19. Shame antibiotics weren't available in 1918 like they were in 1957 and 1969

Especially when one realizes that most of the people who died during the 1918 pandemic didn't die from the flu but rather from secondary infections for which there was no treatment for in 1918.

Strange how as the world population increased over time the number of people dying during periodic pandemics decreased. Might be a connection there.

Don



1918-1919 (Spanish Flu pandemic)------ 500,000 dead in US

1928----------------------------------------- Alexander Fleming Discovers Penicillin

1957-1958 (Asian Flu pandemic)--------- 60,000 dead in US

1968-1969 (Hong Kong Flu pandemic)--- 40,000 dead in US

[Silverhair]

20. Have you consider that they are using antibiotics now in Asia?

Perhaps you think that only America and Europe have antibiotics? They have them in Vietnam and in Indonesia, and they are still dying at a very high rate.

[NNN0LHI]

35. High rate? 60 people have died from this flu since it was identified...

...in 1997. It doesn't make any difference if this flu has 100% death rate if it only has the ability to infect and kill 60 people in eight years time.

Could it possibly mutate and become better at killing? Sure it could. But couldn't the same thing be said of any virus? Sure it could.

Don

[Silverhair]

40. Actually, that is two year's time, and most of those were this year.

Earlier than two years ago it was not able to make the jump to humans. It has gotten better at making the jump this year, and has also made some secondary jumps. The number of seconadary jumps is increasing. So far, there are no known casual leaps. All jumps have required close contact.

The flu is getting better at infecting humans.

No, the same can not be said of any virus.

[NNN0LHI]

46. Oh that is much worse. 30 people a year die from the bird flu

Sounds like we are on the verge of a pandemic to me with those kinds of numbers being bandied about.

And you are saying other virus's have no ability to mutate? Only this one bird flu virus can do that? Did I get that right?

Don

[Silverhair]

50. Viruses do mutate.

After all, AIDS has managed to jump to humans and establish itself with us, and we now have different strains of AIDS because it has mutated since then.

However, right now, Avian Flu is the one that is on the edge of such a mutation and has a proven high lethality.

Other viruses are not on the edge of jumping to us, as this one is.

[NNN0LHI]

58. How do you know that...

..."Other viruses are not on the edge of jumping to us"? I mean I hope to hell that is true and all but I am just curious how you would know that? Did someone tell you that or did you read it somewhere?

Don

[Silverhair]

68. Restating that.

It is the only one that we know of that is on the edge.

Other viral particles that are know about are not on that edge.

To prove that there is not an unknown particle on the edge is impossible as that would require proving a negative.

For a long time, I have had an interest in epidemics and humanity. I am convinced that sooner or later, there will be a huge epidemic that will greatly reduce humanities numbers on the globe. If it isn't Avian Flu, then it will be something else. Marburg is an interesting candidate. If it ever becomes airborne, at it's 90% lethality, no cure, no vaccine, then the planet gets a rest from human crowding.

Just because we are intelligent does not mean that we are exempt from the laws of nature.

Since I first became aware of Avian Flu, about a year ago, I have made it a project to learn about it. Actual scientific information, not politically slanted stuff.

[leeroysphitz]

79. "greatly reduce humanities numbers "

Now who's wearing the tinfoil hat?

[Silverhair]

80. A natural disaster is NOT conspiracy thinking.

Big difference.

Peak Oil is a looming disaster. It becomes tinfoil if you think there is cabal of evil men who want it to happen and are making it happen, and preventing solutions.

Global Warming is a natural disaster. It becomes tinfoil if you think there is cabal of evil men who want it to happen and are making it happen, and preventing solutions.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were natural disasters. It becomes tinfoil if you think that Bush sent weather modification planes to strengthen and direct the hurricanes.

The tsunami was a natural disaster. It becomes tinfoil if you think that we secretly planted nukes on the seabed to cause the earthquake.

Get the idea?

Pandemics happen from time to time. Other shit happens. Humanity is not immune to the laws of nature. At one time in our past, about 70K years ago, a natural disaster reduced humanity to a few thousand individuals. The 1918 flu killed about 100 million globally. It is biologically possible for a new bug to be a "slate wiper".

So it isn't tinfoil, unless you think that Gaia is intelligent and is plotting against us.

[leeroysphitz]

103. I'm sorry but your doom and gloom prognostication

sounds just as "out there" as those who "saw" a missle come off that plane right before it hit the WTC. I'm not saying either of you are wrong necessarily but I'm lumping you both in the same category.



sp

[gkhouston]

86. it's not a linear thing. 60 people in 2 years doesn't sound like

much but H5N1 keeps spreading and mutating. They've been trying to stamp it out by culling birds since 1997. For a while, it looks like they've succeeded, and then it crops up again, and spreads to a new species. When H5N1 mutates into a strain that is readily transmissible human-to-human, the number of infected and dead will suddenly explode and that's why WHO is following the situation so closely. We may have another couple of years. We may only have a few weeks. Given its tendency thus far to spread, the questions seem to be when will H5N1 widely infect humans and how lethal will that strain be. "If" doesn't seem to be much of a question anymore.

[Bridget Burke]

47. Where are the stats on secondary infections?

Quite a few young, healthy people died quite quickly during the 1919 pandemic.

"Might be a connection" is not enough.

[NNN0LHI]

51. Here is a passage from the book Bush wants you to read

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6315717/site/newsweek/%20

The 1918 flu—variant H1N1—spread with terrifying speed; in six days at a single Army base, Barry writes, the hospital census went from 610 to more than 4,000. It killed with devastating swiftness: pedestrians literally collapsed in the street; people woke up healthy and were dead by nightfall. It attacked multiple organs in the body, but always the respiratory system first, laying waste to the defenses by which the body keeps pathogens out of the lungs.Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918. But in other cases, the virus was fatal in itself. Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues. And it was those deaths that explained H1N1's unique terror. Influenza typically kills the very young and the old, whose immune systems are too weak to fight it off, but Spanish flu killed young men and women in the prime of life.

Anther recent article:

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/health/health.php?story=dispatch/2005/10/09/20051009-A10-00.html

Bird flu threat is real but not immediate, scientists say
Viral strain may not hit pandemic level, although signs are ominous, experts say


<snip>Alarm heightened on Thursday when a scientific team led by Taubenberger reported that the 1918 flu virus, which killed 50 million people worldwide, was also a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

There is a crucial difference: The 1918 flu was highly contagious, while today’s bird flu has so far shown little ability to spread from person to person. But a mutation making the virus more transmissible could set the stage for a pandemic. snip

Some scientists suspect that if H5N1 has not caused a pandemic by now, then it will not, because it must be incapable of making the needed changes. snip

The fear "is very much overdone, in my opinion," said Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor of immunology at New York Medical College, who has treated flu patients since the 1957 pandemic and has studied the 1918 flu.

The bird flu, he said, is distantly related to earlier flus, and humans have already been exposed to them, providing some resistance. Scientists also say that the death rate may not be as high as it appears, because there may be some milder cases that have gone unreported.

Kilbourne emphasized that medical care has improved greatly since 1918. Although some flu victims then drowned from fluid leaking into their lungs, many more likely died of bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics.

[Bridget Burke]

54. Where are the STATISTICS?

"Some" & "many" are a bit vague. The people who died "with devastating swiftness" had no chance to get secondary infections.

Even if many victims could be saved with prompt, thorough medical care--how will it be delivered? A bad RSV season can make hospitals in my city go to "drive-by" status.

And what about the poor? Since flu virus can be transmitted through the air & the symptoms appear after the victim becomes infectious, they could become disease vectors. Oh, Bush will call up the Army to round them up!

[NNN0LHI]

56. No the word MOST is not vague at all as in...

..."Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918."

Check out the definition sometime. Most means the majority.

If you want exact statistics I would suggest you try Google and see what you can find. That is what I usually do when I am searching for info. Its fun. Give it a whirl. If you find something let us know if you don't mind.

Don

[Bridget Burke]

60. I've already tried Google.

So, you don't have any real statistics. I'll let you know if I find any.

Do you think our medical care system is set up to give the quick, expert treatment needed to prevent secondary infections?

[NNN0LHI]

62. My elderly father has been hospitalized every year for pnemonia...

...at least once for the past 5 years. He goes in by ambulance he is in such bad shape and can't even walk. Yet no more that 2 days later he is on the way to the race track for 10 races like he is good as new. Yes I think our medical system can handle this kind of thing. Because everyone isn't going to get sick at once. Just like during every flu season we have.

Don

[Bernardo de La Paz]

130. Hospital can handle your dad, but handle a million patients? Nope.

[gkhouston]

88. Nope. And I'm wondering how many of the "most" in 1918

were seen by a doctor. And if a goodly portion of the population is out sick, who's going to staff the pharmacies to dispense the antibiotics or drive the trucks to replenish the supplies as needed?

[Mojorabbit]

82. The theory of why

younger people died was because they had good strong immune systems. The virus caused a cytokine storm within the body causing the immune system to attack the lungs. Yes we have antibiotics for secondary infection now for those who might get one but in a pandemic you won't be able to get near a hospital.

As for the OP. I agree heartily. Infectious disease docs all over the world have been worried sick about this for three years and are more worried than ever.
To say it is a Bush conspiracy is to be ignorant of the science that has come out over the past three years re this virus.

[NNN0LHI]

100. But the shift to the younger population initially was seen in the ...

...last three influenza pandemics yet the number of deaths continued to decrease as the world population increased? Why would that be? Could the ability to treat secondary infections that we have now that we didn't have in 1918 have anything to do with that?

Don

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/idsa/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html

All three pandemics were characterized by a shift in age distribution of deaths to younger population under age 65 (at least initially); shift was particularly dramatic during 1918 pandemic (see References: NIH: Focus on the flu; HHS: Influenza pandemics; Simonsen 2004; Webster 1997).

[Mojorabbit]

102. I guess it is possible

Then again, I don't think the smaller pandemics since the 1918 one overwhelmed the medical care system like the first one did. If you look at how many people in this country do not have any health care benefits and who would not present to an
ER and the decrease in hospital beds over the years it would be a recipe for disaster.

Also though in your link the cytokine storm theory is mentioned...
An unusual feature of the pandemic was the age-related mortality; the pandemic strain killed a disproportionate number of healthy young adults. This led to the observation of a "W" shaped age-related mortality curve in the United States, with high rates of mortality among very young children, persons 15 to 45 years of age, and the elderly (see References: Reid 2001; Glezen 1996). Usually the curve associated with influenza mortality follows a "U" shape, with excess deaths occurring only among the very young and the elderly. One striking feature of the pandemic was its impact on pregnant women; a summary of 13 studies involving pregnant women demonstrated that case-fatality rates ranged from 23% to 71% (see References: Barry 2004).

Recent studies in mice using genetically engineered influenza strains similar to the H1N1 pandemic strain suggest that macrophage activation with high levels of cytokine production may be a key factor in lung damage caused by that strain (see References: Kobasa 2004). It is possible that an overly robust immune response inducing a "cytokine storm" may have been responsible for the high fatality rates seen in younger populations during the 1918 pandemic.
snip

I don't see it mentioned for the other two pandemics...ie cytokine storm.
Do you know if it was so? I'd be really interested.

[NNN0LHI]

104. It is at the bottom of the second information panel when you scroll down

There is an asterisk in front of the notation. I will try and post the panel below but I am not sure it will load here? I will give it a whirl. Take care.

Don

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/idsa/influenza/panflu/biofacts/panflu.html

[Silverhair]

105. Very informative site. Bookmarked. NT

[Mojorabbit]

106. I think I see the line you are talking about

It still does not address if the cytokine storm was observed in the other two pandemics.

I read this today which has me concerned.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9665609/
Webster has infected lab animals with the virus and says it's very dangerous.

"This virus spreads outside the lungs to the central nervous system," he says. "The animal gets hind-leg paralysis and dies. This is the first influenza virus we've seen that does this in a mammal."
@@@@@@
While I had read that the 1918 pandemic caused some neuro symptoms, I have never read of this type of reaction. I dearly hope this flu does not mutate and become easily transmisable.
My hubby is a physician and is worried sick about this due to the shortage of antiviral meds in this country. Antibiotics will not help keep the immune system from attacking the body.

I am a former critical care nurse who has MS. I know that any cold or flu I get makes my immune system go overboard in attack mode and it then attacks my brain. I am thinking the same principle applies with the cytokine storm. It is the antivirals which tone down the immune system's attack in the cytokine storm to help protect the body. Antibiotics would not help there.

It remains to be seen I guess, whether it will attain the virulence it needs to spread and how bad the strain will be when and if it does. I do know that our medical system is not set up for anything of this magnitude so I have my fingers crossed and am keeping up to date on all the latest developments.

[NNN0LHI]

109. I have been wondering if pneumonia can trigger a cytokine storm?

I am not sure?

Don

[Mojorabbit]

112. I just asked hubby

and he said pneumonia can trigger a cytokine storm and cytokine storm can trigger pneumonia....

[NNN0LHI]

113. Interesting. Thank you and your husband very much n/t

[Mojorabbit]

115. Here is a good

description of cytokine storm. http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-cytokine-storm.htm
You have to punch in what is cytokine storm when you hit the site.

We think of external microbes as our worst enemy during an outbreak of influenza or bronchitis, but our own immune systems are potentially more lethal.
snip
At all times, sentries circulate in our bloodstream, called white blood cells, that are the first to sense if a virus or bacteria has infiltrated. Immediately, our body sends defenders from the immune system, T-cells, to the site of the infection. During this stage, our immunity functions properly, and T-cells attack the microbes so they do not get too strong a foothold in our lungs.

However, the mere presence of T-cells clustered at one site, especially the lungs, alerts other T-cells that a full-scale war has started. In the second stage, even more T-cells, known as cytokines, flood the lungs. This propagates a Cytokine storm where far too many immune cells are caught in an endless loop of calling even more. The Cytokine storm ends up inflaming the tissue of the lungs and crowding air passages, causing breathing difficulties.

Not only can severe inflammation damage your lungs permanently, but a prolonged Cytokine storm will eventually shut down your breathing. Airducts get clogged and cells no longer properly absorb oxygen. This is what makes the Cytokine storm so deadly in certain epidemic strains, such as bird flu. Even bronchitis, other varieties of influenza, pneumonia, and possibly rheumatoid arthritis are susceptible to triggering a Cytokine storm.

http://www.med-owl.com/health/H5N1-Virus-Therapy.html
also has a description of cytokine storm

[NNN0LHI]

117. I think a British company is working on a cure for this?

I was reading something a a couple of years ago and remember it vaguely. I think I can remember even bronchitis can trigger it and my wife has bronchitis so I think I had better get to researching Google? Thank you both again and thanks for the links. I will read them more thoroughly later tonight or tomorrow.

Don

[Mojorabbit]

120. I found a line that might

explain the curve you were talking about.

Should H5N1 become the next pandemic strain, the resultant morbidity and mortality could rival those of 1918, when more than half the deaths occurred among largely healthy people between 18 and 40 years of age and were caused by a virus-induced cytokine storm (see diagram) that led to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).4 The ARDS-related morbidity and mortality in the pandemic of 1918 was on a different scale from those of 1957 and 1968 — a fact that highlights the importance of the virulence of the virus subtype or genotype. Clinical, epidemiologic, and laboratory evidence suggests that a pandemic caused by the current H5N1 strain would be more likely to mimic the 1918 pandemic than those that occurred more recently.

This doc seems to be saying the virulence of the virus was the problem instead of secondary infection?
It is from the new england journal of medicine and looks to be a great article.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839

[Silverhair]

123. Good Site. Bookmarked. NT

[Silverhair]

65. There are none.

In 1918, so many people were sick, and so many dying, that the system was extremely overwhelmed. Steamshovels were used to dig trench graves that the dead were dumped in side by side without markers. Corpses lay on porches for days waiting for someone to collect them. Examinations needed to get the kind of stats on who died quickly and who died of secondary causes were simply not done.

However, there IS demographic data that is very illuminating. A link to the page won't work, so here is how to get to it:

Copy this:

Luk et al., Mortality during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Put it in google and search. It should come up at the top of the list of hits.

At the site, scroll half way down. Click on the charts to enlarge. Chart 1 will show a HUGE spike in mortality among people aged 14 to 44 with the max spike at age 25-35. Those are the people with the best immune systems. People with weaker immune systems had better survival rates. These were the people who dropped dead suddenly due to the immune system over reacting. As you can see by the chart, it is a huge spike in excess deaths.

Compare chart 1 to charts 2 & 3, which are normal epidemics of flu.

[Bridget Burke]

89. Thanks for the information.

People don't drop dead suddenly from secondary infections.

Even treating a large number of patients with secondary infections would put a big strain on the health care system.

[helderheid]

91. antibiotics don't work against viruses though, right?

isn't the flu a viral infection?

[Silverhair]

96. Correct on both counts. NT

[NNN0LHI]

101. No one ever said they did

Read my post once and you will see I was talking about secondary infections such as bacterial pneumonia which killed more people than the flu did.

Don

[jsamuel]

30. i wasn't ignoring anything, I was just putting it in perspective

perspective

PERSPECTIVE



We can argue whether or not it has the potential to do one thing or another and we should do what is medically possible to ensure the public's safety, however, we don't need to spout disaster senarios at every turn. Fear fear fear or perspective.

[Silverhair]

38. But it is a false perspective.

You leave out what the flu has PROVEN itself capable of in it's deadly forms. (1918 675,000 Americans dead in a few months.) You post as if the Avian Flu will stay at less than a hundred deaths a year.

Regular flu is already at it's peak potential for total lethality. That 36K deaths is about all it will generate.

Avian flu, after it mutates to a highly contagious form (And it does have that ability to mutate), and if it retains it's lethality rate (50+%)will have the ability to kill ONE BILLION people globally. That number is from the World Health Organization, a department of the United Nations.

Our concern is NOT about what it IS doing now to humans (It isn't doing much) but about what it can do when it becomes H-H easily transmissible.

Big difference between the two. Regular flu is already maxed out. Avian flu is just getting started.

[bloom]

59. "If it mutates"

...that seems like a pretty big IF to me.

So the question is - how likely is that?

[Silverhair]

67. Very likely.

Flu is RNA based, instead of DNA. RNA is relatively unstable, therefore it mutates readily.

Further, it recombines easily too. A virus is not able to reproduce by itself, like a bacterium. So when it invaded a cell it takes over he reproductive machinery of the cell and instructs the cell to make many copies of itself. When the cell has made about 10K copies of the flu virus, it bursts open, spilling the new viruses to find and infect other cells. Each replication is an opportunity for a copy error, a mutation.

But here is the real danger. IT IS POSSIBLE TO BE SICK WITH TWO FLUES AT THE SAME TIME. When that happens, then two closely related viral particles argue over who gets to use the copy machine. The cell tries to make both at the same time, AND WILL GET SOME OF THEM MIXED UP. Some of the new viral particles will be crossbreeds. Some of them WILL have both the lethality and the high contagion elements. All that is then needed is for some of them to escape into the general population.

[Silverhair]

6. The basic facts about Avian Flu.

There IS a pandemic among wild bird of H5N1 flu. Domestic poulty can easily catch it too, and it is spreading along the migratory flight paths. So far it is in Asia and the edge of Europe.

It is NOT (At this time) easily caught by humans. The cases that have caught it have required a strong exposure to it. They have gotten directly from poultry or from contact with a family member.

It has shown a very high lethality rate among humans that have caught it, DESPITE TREATMENT IN HOSPITALS. Lethality has been in excess of 50%.

The flu virus is based on RNA instead of DNA. RNA is much less stable than DNA and mutates and recombines very easily, to create new forms. So flu is a very fast mutating virus.

With modern air travel, a mutated highly contagious virus can go global within days of the first mutation in the first patient.

There WAS a great pandemic in 1918 that killed 675,000 Americans in a few months time. Worse, it selectively killed the healthiest of the population by stimulating an over reaction of the immune system that turned the lungs into a battlefield and destroyed them - often within hours of the first symptom.

There is a DUer who frequently posts that antibiotics will be able to stop this flu from killing, but he seems to forget that Vietnam gave their patients antibiotics and they still had 70% died anyway.

Those are the basic facts.

HERE IS THE FEAR:

IF the flu mutates to a form that is as contagious to humans as the regular flu is, and IF it retains it's high lethality when it does that, then it will spread rapidly, and humanity is in very deep trouble.

But those are unknowns. It could mutate into a contagious form and lose it's lethality at the same time. There is no way to know what it will do, until it does it.

There are major difficulties in making vaccines. Basically, you can't make a vaccine until the virus mutates to the form that you need to make the vaccine against. There is research being done to find a way around that.

[SaveElmer]

118. Couple of points...

The high lethality rate is among those hospitalized with the disease. It is possible there have been many more cases that were not as serious, and where the infected individual did not seek medical attention. If you looked at the garden variety flu through the lens of those seeking treatment it would look like the second coming of the plague. The disease is so new they really don't know how lethal it is.

And, even if the percentage is that high, it is because the flu is currently genetically designed to infect birds, not humans. It has not yet mutated to survive in humans. If the disease did mutate into a form that can infect humans (of which there is some belief that it may not be able to) there is just as high a likelihood that it will evolve into a less deadly form. A highly virulent disease can survive in a highly dense population such as with birds, or in the over packed cities of Asia. But to effectively spread to less populated areas, it would almost certainly have to weaken to avoid killing its host before it could spread. From what I have read this is why Ebola and Marburgs have not spread. They have not been able to mutate into less lethal forms.

It is my understanding that the Swine Flu of 1976 was also RNA based. And in fact, the reason for the worry was that it closely resembled the 1918 Spanish Flu in genetic makeup.

http://www.haverford.edu/biology/edwards/disease/viral_essays/warnervirus.htm

Obviously air travel can spread the disease worlwide. But that is somewhat misleading in. It would not become widespread in the population within days, and there is still opportunity to isolate it even if it does make it here. SARS made it to North America without inducing widespread infection.

It is unknown what effect anti-biotics might have had on the 1918 flu as there were none available. And there is a high likelihood that it was bacterial infection which killed most of those who died. And you simply cannot ignore the differences between 1918 and now. Travel is easier now, but we were at war, shipping hundreds of ill soldiers to Europe nearly every day, and sick soldiers were returning every day. Handwashing was not used as a prevention for disease. There were no vaccines, no anti-viral drugs, no worlwide communications network to rapidly isolate outbreaks. Much of Europe was decimated by war, malnutrition and disease were rampant making the disease all that much easier to spread!

It is true you cannot make a vaccine that will give complete immunity from a strain that has not yet evolved. But my undertanding as that the vaccine which has been developed against the specific H5N1 strain would likely provide some immunity against a mutated strain, particularly if that strain combined with a strain to which we did have some immunity. And certainly, the infrastructure developed to produce this variety of vaccine, would aid in producing the correctly matched one more rapidly

Your caution is well warranted, but I think a discussion of all the possibilities is warranted, not just the most alarming ones.

[Silverhair]

122. Evolution is blind, unable to see the end result.

It is true that for a virus to have long term survival, it must do as little damage as possible to the host. But that does not mean that it evolves that way on purpose.

There have been occasions in history in which highly contagious and highly virulent diseases have appeared. Sometimes, even an entire species can be wiped out. An example would be the American Chestnut tree. At one time, about a fourth of all trees in the continent were Chestnuts. Now they are gone, wiped out by a disease that killed them all.

If a virus happens to make the right mutation, and mutations are not directed by any intellegence, then it can be a "slate wiper".

Marburg and Ebola are difficult to catch. You need direct contact with an infected person to get them. But there is an airborne form of Ebola - Ebola Reston - but fortunately it produces no symptoms in humans. In the recent Angola outbreak, the seemed to have been some cases of airborne transmittal, but they were not able to be confirmed.

It is definately possible for it to retain it's lethality after it recombines.

[SaveElmer]

125. Yes it is possible for it to retain its lethality...

But I believe the more likely outcome, and the one that occurs in the overwhelming majority of cases, is that it becomes less lethal for the reason stated.

Viruses don't think obviously, we have taken to talking about them as though they were some intelligent being, deciding what to do. But all life forms follow laws of natural selection, which states that life forms that adapt to their environment most successfully survive. Those that do not, die.

If a virus becomes too virulent, killing its host in a very short time, in less populated areas it is likely that mutation will die out, and another mutation - one less deadly - will survive.

And again, we do not actually now how lethal this virus is in its current form. We are only looking at those cases for which the patient sought medical treatment. There may be many more who contracted a milder form of the disease. In this case, it is not as lethal, in the former case, it is still very hard to catch - even bird to human. One hundred and seventeen cases in an area as densely populated as Asia, with the number of people handling birds speaks to this. Some scientists (including Dr. Kilbourne I believe), point to this as possible evidence that the virus may not have the ability to make that mutation.

We need to act as though it does though, and take the measures necessary to protect us. The reactions of the Romanian and Turkish governments is heartening in this regard. They acted swiftly.

Although now I am reading that not only have they not been able to confirm the H5N1 strain in those birds, it is becoming less likely that that is th strain responsible. My understanding is that a strain as apparently lethal as this one is very easy to test for, and if it is not appearing easily, it may not be that particular strain.

[Silverhair]

127. That is why I am so concerned.

You said:
Viruses don't think obviously, we have taken to talking about them as though they were some intelligent being, deciding what to do. But all life forms follow laws of natural selection, which states that life forms that adapt to their environment most successfully survive. Those that do not, die.

If a virus becomes too virulent, killing its host in a very short time, in less populated areas it is likely that mutation will die out, and another mutation - one less deadly - will survive.

That is exactly correct. And in humanity's hunter-gatherer days, when we lived in small tribes we had the protection of a natural quarantine against a really bad bug. As you state, a disease that was highly contagious and highly virulent soon burned through the available victims and then died itself. It was self limiting. The ones that could survive were the less damaging forms, like the common cold.

But now we are so crowded and interconnected that when such a mutation occurs, it has all of humanity to rage through before it burns itself out. That also seems to be a natural law to keep a population of a species in balance.

So the natural barrier to a deadly mutation surviving has been removed. It can go either way. And the part of the RNA that controls the contagion is different from the part that controls the lethality. So there is less bias toward a weaker form.

[mzteris]

8. Pandemics aren't a question of IF

it's a question of when and how bad.

Maybe *this* one will turn out to be nothing, maybe it will be THE killer one - it's all the luck of the draw, so to speak. A confluence of events - or not.

Kinda like Katrina - do you evacuate the city or just move to the 2nd floor. Will there be that last minute jog to the east that lessened the damage that COULD have been done?

There WILL BE a pandemic - some day. The questions are: When will it occur and how bad will it be? The most important question is, will we - as a Nation - and as a WORLD - be prepared to deal with the epidemic itself and the fallout from it.

[radwriter0555]

9. I always defer to doctors that I know personally and respect. For example

a couple years back, there was the SARS scare in China, right?

Well airfares were ridiculously cheap because of it, and I got a great package, 5 nights, airfare & hotel in Beijing for $499. Yes, Four Hundred and Ninety Nine dollars. In a GREAT hotel.

So I asked my doctor and my OTHER doctor friend asked HER doctor and all the doctors said it was nothing to worry about.

So I went with my doctor friend.

Well, all those same doctors aren't worried about the bird flu in the USA or anywhere else having an impact on the general population any more than the flu does every year.

And, again, consider the source of the hysteria.

Bush and the US media. Niether is terribly credible.

[Silverhair]

14. Bush and the media are NOT the source of the information.

It started with the United Nation World Health Organization over a year ago. Bush and the media are just now waking up to it.

You may want to read up on the flu. Start with John M Barry's book: "The Great Influenza". The flu CAN take a deadly form. In 1918 675,000 Americans died in a few months from it.

Sooner or later, it WILL mutate to an H-H form. It may or may not retain it's current lethality when it does. That is an unknown.

[CoffeeCat]

72. Your opinion is understandable...but it is also very dangerous...

I do understand that you are skeptical about Bush and the media. Like you, I don't consider them credible sources (Bush more so than the media).

However, please remember--bird flu is an issue that has been written about and studied by scientific and medical experts, for a long time. The World Health Organization and other medical experts have been concerned about bird flu and have been discussing a possible pandemic for more than a year.

Bush and the media are now jumping on to this issue--to exploit it for their own sick gain. The media wants higher ratings, and fear stimulates higher ratings. Bush is using bird flu to continue his sick fascist game. Notice that his first suggestion is to use the military to quarantine parts of this country. He didn't talk about vaccinations or helping to make Tamiflu (the only drug that may lessen the severity of bird flu) more accessible and affordable to US citizens. He began addressing bird flu by talking about troops in the streets. God, I could just smack him.

The truth is---this is a VERY, VERY serious subject. Take Bush and the media out of the equation. We all know Bush is full of shit. Ignore his fascist bullroar--and do your own research.

Just like with the hurricane--we are on our own. Research bird flu and see what doctors and other medical experts are saying. Prepare yourself, should a pandemic happen. Don't rely on the disinformation from Bush and the hype from the media. Be responsible for your own destiny.

There are several things that must happen before we have a pandemic.

Here are the six stages of a pandemic--
http://avianflu.futurehs.com/?page_id=30
We are currently in stage 3, and possibly 4 (human-to-human spread might have occurred, but has not yet been confirmed).

This is a very serious subject, and it's just too bad that the seriousness of the bird flu threat has been degraded--because the pResident has hitched his wagon to the topic.

Please read on your own and make your own decisions.

Maybe that's why Junior ran out of the gate and immediately suggested something outlandish--like military-enforced quarantines. Maybe he's trying to muddy the waters on purpose--and confuse people.

He's done nothing on bird flu. NOTHING. The world has been warning us for months, that our country is not prepared. He took NO action. Junior doesn't care about helping U.S. citizens in the event of a bird-flu pandemic....please remember that.

[Mojorabbit]

83. I find that odd

as my husband is a physician and all the physicians he knows and works with are worried sick about this. If it happens with the shortage of antivirals there will be nothing he can do other than supportive care.

[gkhouston]

90. I've been worried sick about this for several months now

and I'm not listening to Bush or the US media. Follow what's going on in the international media, or what the WHO is worried about.

Yes, I wouldn't put it past Bush to try to exploit a crisis but bird flu is serious danger, and IMO, an imminent one.

[zanne]

13. It's just hard to know what to believe now.

If this had happened five years ago, I'd take it very seriously. But we've been frightened time and time again by Bush and his friends (including Tony Blair), only to find out the information they were giving us wasn't reliable. Then, we were lied to about Iraq. I no longer have doubts that these people will harm us or even kill to further their agenda, so I can't blame myself or anybody else for not taking this seriously. For me, at least, trust in the media and the administration is a thing of the past.

[Silverhair]

16. Reliable information is EASY to come by.

But you do have to be willing to read a bit.

So some googling about the 1918 flu. Get a copy of John M Barry's book: "The Great Influenza". It has an excellent chapter about exactly how the flu virus works.

The danger is NOT in the Avain virus present form, but IF it mutates into a highly contagious form while retaining it's present lethality, then we are in trouble.

You DON'T have to wait to be spoon fed information. It is out there, you just have to look for it.

[melody]

21. Well, then let's all shoot ourselves

It happens or it doesn't happen. We may get smacked by an asteroid twice the size of earth in the next ten years. Each of us personally may meet our own individual "end of the world". Who knows? My doctor tells me the same thing the others have said: it will be a problem IF it jumps the species barrier IN the same form and WITH the same virulence. We have a greater likelihood that it will not do these things. The odds of them ALL happening would be small. However, yes, the potential is so dramatic that, even if the likelihood is small, we should prepare for it in every way possible.

But that doesn't mean we need to be manipulated by terror (and, reason to be afraid or not, that's why Chimpy is using it) - either the puppetmasters or our own. There are other more likely threats to our welfare.

[Silverhair]

24. Yeah, Why upgrade the leeves? The chance of a major hurricane

in any particular year is pretty small.

[melody]

27. Did you even read my post past the subject line?

You seem to be very quick about posting all this, but you don't seem to be reading responses more than superficially.

[Coastie for Truth]

22. Great source of "specialist" information here

on the |NIH Search Engine]-- and enter with "H5N1" Over 500 hits just following two links from |http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi]

Some good hits:

Semin Pediatr Infect Dis. 2005 Oct;16(4):326-35. Avian Influenza Virus H5N1: A Review of Its History and Information Regarding Its Potential to Cause the Next Pandemic.

Ligon BL.

Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas.

Avian influenza virus H5N1, which has been limited to poultry, now has spread to migrating birds and has emerged in mammals and among the human population. It presents a distinct threat of a pandemic for which the World Health Organization and other organizations are making preparations. This article reviews information about the virus itself and its spread among poultry, migrating birds, mammals, and humans.

J Appl Microbiol. 2003;94 Suppl 70S-79S. The next influenza pandemic: lessons from Hong Kong.

Shortridge KF, Peiris JS, Guan Y.

Department of Microbiology, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China. [e-mail]

Pandemic influenza is a zoonosis. Studies on influenza ecology conducted in Hong Kong since the 1970s in which Hong Kong essentially functioned as an influenza sentinel post indicated that it might be possible, for the first time, to have influenza preparedness at the baseline avian level. This appreciation of influenza ecology facilitated recognition of the H5N1 'bird flu' incident in Hong Kong in 1997 in what was considered to be an incipient pandemic situation, the chicken being the source of virus for humans and, if so, was the first instance where a pandemic may have been averted. The 2001 and 2002 H5N1 incidents demonstrated that it was possible to have an even higher order of baseline preparedness with the recognition in chicken of a range of genotypes of H5N1-like viruses before they had the opportunity to infect humans. Investigations of these incidents revealed a complex ecology involving variously precursor avian H5N1 virus in geese and ducks, and H9N2 and H6N1 viruses in quail, the quail possibly functioning as an avian 'mixing vessel' for key genetic reassortment events for onward transmission of H5N1 viruses highly pathogenic for chicken and humans. These findings highlight the importance of systematic virus surveillance of domestic poultry in recognizing changes in virus occurrence, host range and pathogenicity as signals at the avian level that could presage a pandemic. For example, there is now an increasing prevalence of avian influenza viruses in terrestrial (in contrast to aquatic) poultry. Prior to 1997, no particular virus subtype other than H4N6 would have been considered a candidate for pandemicity and this was based, in the absence of any other data, on its high frequency of occurrence in ducks in southern China. Now,with the isolation of H5N1 and H9N2 viruses from humans supported by genetic, molecular and biological studies on these and other avian isolates, there is credible evidence for the candidacy, in order, of H5N1, H9N2 and H6N1 viruses.These viruses have been made available for the production of diagnostic reagents and exploratory vaccines. The 1997 incident upheld the hypothesis that southern China is an epicentre for the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses. However, the intensification of the poultry (chicken) industry worldwide coupled with the spread of viruses such as the Eurasian lineage of H9N2 suggest that the genesis of a pandemic could take place elsewhere in the world. This re-emphasizes the importance of systematic virus surveillance of poultry globally for international public health and for economic and food concerns. Faced with an incipient pandemic in 1997, Hong Kong brought in international experts to join the investigative effort. Good teamwork at all levels is essential in dealing with the many facets. The threat of a pandemic should not be minimized, nor should governments be lulled into a sense of false security. The media is a powerful channel and has the responsibility and the avenues to convey and influence public perception of events. Close liaison between the media and those on the operational side ensures effective, accurate and timely dissemination of information. This will enhance public confidence in the investigative process and in steps taken for its safety and health.

[melody]

28. a distinct threat, but not a likely one

>It presents a distinct threat

Yes, a distinct threat, but not one we need to be overly concerned beyond taking prudent measures to protect ourselves.

[zanne]

29. And exactly how would that have helped us with previous lies?

I'm not saying that there's no information out there. The original poster was saying that we've been frightened before, but for political reasons. The issue of lifting Posse Comitatus came up right away, which can give a person pause as to the reason why Bush is suddenly so concerned about it. By the way, I do read and to suggest that I don't because I have doubts about information coming from this administration is, frankly, insulting.

[KoKo]

32. John M Barry's book: "The Great Influenza" was Bush's reading for

his vacation.... We can assume the book was handpicked for him, and the MSM made a big deal about the three books on his reading list.

Given that everything out of the Bushies is propaganda for profit it would seem logical to assume that "The Great Influenza" was a important topic to be pushed this fall. Andy Card always launches his marketing campaigns in the Fall, if you remember. :eyes: Book Promotion, Fear Promotion, Panic Promotion = Money for Drug Companies by getting more tax breaks to "ramp up research and production" and more money for the MSM from book and magazine sales attention away from Bushies imploding mis-administration.

[Silverhair]

48. Because he read it does NOT make the book false or propaganda.

Your your information, the book is carefully researched and footnoted. The facts are verifiable.

I recommend the book for it's excellent chapter on how the flu virus works. There was an excellent article a few months ago in Scientific American about how the flu virus works. (I guess you think that is another Rove publication.) And you can research on the web how the virus works. They ALL agree.

I have checked the major facts in Barry's book against other sources, mostly on the web, or Discover Magazine, or Scientific American, or the United Nations (Are they a Rove group too?) AND THEY ALL AGREE.

That tinfoil hat is reducing your ability to think logically.

[KoKo]

71. Even the "truth" can be used for purposes that aren't always honorable

or even transparent, though. That's my point. Causing panic is what the Bushies do best. We can be aware and try to take proper precautions in the event of a bird flu jump into the population. It's all we can do at this point. But, getting frenzied because we are bombarded by hype on the cables doesn't do anyone any good.

[Silverhair]

74. True. My concern is with the people who want to ignore it completely.

Or the ones who think that it is just a Rovian plot.

[Wind Dancer]

76. In this case, tinfoil is critical thinking!

KoKo01 addresses legitimate questions, not tinfoil.

Why do you think the WH propaganda machine felt the need to reveal *'s summer reading list? We all know he doesn't read so what was the reasoning behind this decision? Has he discussed anything other than the lifting of Posse Comitatus? They have been using private companies as mercenaries in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Gulf Coast regions. This makes me very suspicious.

Personally, I don't know what to believe but I question everything this administration says. How are we to distinguish a real crisis from the hyped up terror alerts? You must understand why it's a bit difficult to take any threat seriously from these criminals. :shrug:

[Silverhair]

77. Simple. I haven't paid any attention to what W says.

I don't bother. Most of the time I don't even know what he has said recently. For my information on Avian Flu, I go to scientific sources that are non political. That way, I am able to know that the Avian Flu threat is real and am not bothered by tinfoil getting in the way.

Tinfoil is NOT critical thinking, it is MAGICAL thinking. It is a type of belief in magic. If you can get rid of the evil magician, then the problems he has created will go away as the spells are undone. But Avian Flu is NOT a spell from an evil sorcerer.

[Coastie for Truth]

18. I am worried

I took Sussman's course in "Applied Differential Equations (Math Methods in Epidemiology)" and I took all of in Biochem, Biochem/Genetics (DNA chemistry), and Immunology/Virology.

Once this flu mutates ("evolves") to where it is transmissible from human to human -- very dangerous.

I don't think this is a creation of Bushco or Leavitt -- Word Health Organization sounded the alarm well before Bushco/Leavitt,

[DemonFighterLives]

23. I have a feeling and maybe that is all it is that the whole

thing is overblown. Sanitation is one of the prime enablers of the virus. I saw a clip on the teevee from Vietnam where the ducks were walking around in slime and then the villagers came walking up through the same slime. Can you imagine kids playing around in it?

I think the world is a little different since 1918 considering the research and the medical practices. Washing of hands and of equipment etc, can still go a long ways to prevention.

On a side note, AAR had a program on Friday talking about meat inspectors and e-coli and the rest. The one guy said that there is a shortage of meat inspectors and they only have 8 seconds per carcas. Also that irradiating which is being pushed by bushco can potentially make other by products that we don't know what will do to us. This was followed by a "meat inspector" who thought all was well.

[mopinko]

34. responsibility for meat inspection

was ceded to the meat packers several years ago. there are still some federal inspections, but most carcasses are "inspected" by the company man.

[DemonFighterLives]

42. Yikes

:hide:
The one fella stated that there were fewer inspectors since dubby stole power. I think the feds still have to stamp them or are at least supposed to. I'm sure dubby will try to privatize it or have frist do a snap analysis from a photo. Yep, it all looks good from here.
I'm remembering more of the story. Meat packing plants are unclean and the by products are sold to be put in high protein feed and fed back to the cattle. This is just not right. You don't feed herbivores with meat(etc). He also stated that calves were weaned on blood. OMG, they are not vampires. And the hormones used cause all sorts of new challenges for the future. It was said that a few days on hay or grass and an animal could self clean.

On the Avian Flu program a fella had to go around and teach the villagers not to eat sick birds and not to throw the carcasses in the water. The practices are unsanitary to the hilt and that is in my opion where the disease is getting it's start.

[mopinko]

52. my BIL is in the biz

works for a high end meat purveyor. it was an early give away, the federal inspector still puts his stamp on the meat, and is still in the plant, but no longer actually looks at the meat unless there is a problem. the give back from the packers was increased testing and culturing for bacteria. less to do, fewer inspectors.

and avian flu wise, it is known that most flus start in asia. and most are a result of a mutation in a common, often harmless, barnyard virus. so your theory is pretty widely held.

[crispini]

43. Meat today... ewwww....

I have no philosophical argument with the concept of eating meat, every now and then, but the way that animals are raised and slaughtered today just grosses me out. I am well on the road to becoming a vegetarian just because I don't think our food supply is safe.

[mopinko]

63. the worst part is-

you could make oil out of that stuff, and the manure, too. tdp would end mad cow, and who knows what else.

[Silverhair]

98. TDP would solve a LOT of problems, even help on Global Warming. NT

[Mandate My Ass]

26. The WHO is worried and so am I

because the best way to deal with this is proactively: research, surveillance, prevention, training & education, coordination with nat'l and international scientific communities, vaccine production, IOW all of Georgie's shortcomings. The gov't will do nothing until the pandemic breaks and we know the rest from watching the Katrina reaction.

It sounds like this is one or two mutations away from becoming highly transmissible. Like others have said, it's not if anymore, it's when.

Oooops. Forgot link:

http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/

[NNN0LHI]

64. The WHO is awfully concerned about obesity too. And for good reason

http://www.who.int/dietphysicalactivity/publications/facts/obesity/en/

How does excess body fat impact health?

Overweight and obesity lead to adverse metabolic effects on blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides and insulin resistance. Some confusion of the consequences of obesity arise because researchers have used different BMI cut-offs, and because the presence of many medical conditions involved in the development of obesity may confuse the effects of obesity itself.

The non-fatal, but debilitating health problems associated with obesity include respiratory difficulties, chronic musculoskeletal problems, skin problems and infertility. The more life-threatening problems fall into four main areas: CVD problems; conditions associated with insulin resistance such as type 2 diabetes; certain types of cancers, especially the hormonally related and large-bowel cancers; and gallbladder disease.

The likelihood of developing Type 2 diabetes and hypertension rises steeply with increasing body fatness. Confined to older adults for most of the 20th century, this disease now affects obese children even before puberty. Approximately 85% of people with diabetes are type 2, and of these, 90% are obese or overweight. And this is increasingly becoming a developing world problem. In 1995, the Emerging Market Economies had the highest number of diabetics. If current trends continue, India and the Middle Eastern crescent will have taken over by 2025.Large increases would also be observed in China, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the rest of Asia.

Raised BMI also increases the risks of cancer of the breast, colon, prostrate, endometroium, kidney and gallbladder. Chronic overweight and obesity contribute significantly to osteoarthritis, a major cause of disability in adults. Although obesity should be considered a disease in its own right, it is also one of the key risk factors for other chronic diseases together with smoking, high blood pressure and high blood cholesterol. In the analyses carried out for World Health Report 2002, approximately 58% of diabetes and 21% of ischaemic heart disease and 8-42% of certain cancers globally were attributable to a BMI above 21 kg/m2.

[Mutley]

31. No expert here.

As many on this thread have said. :D But it is my belief that, while it might be possible for the bird flu to become a pandemic that could kill millions throughout the world, it is far from likely. I'd bet that 99% of what we're hearing about it is hype intended to make people afraid, and to distract the public from what is going on with DeLay, Rove, Frist, etc.

[Coastie for Truth]

33. Fortress Against Flu - NY Times 10/11/05

Washington politicians were so spooked by the government's abysmal response to Hurricane Katrina that they have worked themselves into overdrive about preparing for a possible influenza pandemic. That is mostly a good thing. No country has enough medicines or vaccines to control a widespread outbreak of the avian influenza now circulating in Asia, should that virus mutate to become easily transmissible among humans. But in their rush to barricade against this uncertain threat, leaders of the developed nations need to make sure that they don't slip into a fortress mentality that protects the home folks while letting an epidemic break loose in Asia and rage through the developing world.

A draft of the administration's long-gestating plan for coping with pandemic flu calls for stockpiling antiviral drugs and beefing up domestic vaccine production capacity. But it acknowledges that under emergency conditions, supplies in the industrialized countries would not be adequate to meet the requests for help from poor countries. If a crisis developed, a refusal to share vaccines would create a humanitarian and diplomatic disaster, driving hatred of the West to new levels among the poor.

The best answer is to stop any virus from spreading in the first place. Unfortunately, control efforts are lagging on the front lines in Asia, as Keith Bradsher reported in The Times on Sunday. Vietnam has scaled back its culling of potentially infected flocks, mostly because there is no money to compensate farmers. Indonesia's less-expensive policy of vaccinating chickens could lead to the spread of infected but asymptomatic birds. Cambodia and Laos have such weak health care programs that an epidemic could start before international health authorities were even aware if it.

The problem is mostly lack of resources. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has been able to raise only $30 million of the $100 million it seeks to pay for veterinary services and diagnostic equipment to slow the spread of avian flu in chickens. This is shortsighted in the extreme.

---Edited to comply with the "Fair Use Rules" of the Copyright Act, Title 15, US Code---

[mopinko]

37. it is being hyped now, it was hushed up earlier, it smells to me.

this flu has been brewing for several years. they slaughtered every chicken in hong kong a few years ago to contain it. i have no doubt that they are blowing it out of proportion now.
i'm sure it is a dangerous flu. the humans that have caught it have been extraordinarily sick. i would like to know why we have not used that time to make vaccines. i'm sure there is a typical bush story behind that.
but this yayaya is a distraction.

[Silverhair]

44. Vaccine CAN'T be made yet.

The flu has NOT yet mutated to an easily transmissible H-H form. Until it does, you can't make a vaccine because you don't know the flu's template. We have to wait to see what form the flu takes before we can attack that form.

That is why you have to take a new flu shot every year. Even the ordinary flu has mutated to a new template.

[mopinko]

53. but it has

i read that there were a couple of cases believed to be h-h. start there, i would think.
just saying they have been watching this virus for years. it seems to me it would have behooved them to vaccinate against the form that is out there. do they know if the mutation occurs in the birds or the people? hmm. interesting subject.

[mike_c]

69. doesn't work that way....

Those are "background" h-h transmission cases, not the result of viral recombination. A vaccine produced from virus isolated from them would almost certainly not work once the really hot recombination occurs.

[Silverhair]

73. Those have been close contact H-H cases.

So far there have not been any known casual H-H cases. Casual ones are the ones to worry about.

[Skidmore]

66. Silverhair, you sound like a very knowledgeable person

and one who probably works in the field. Can you give us poor uneducated and unconnected souls out here some idea of what kind of effort the public health, AMA, or any other professional entity could do to force this issue with the pharmaceutical companies? I just find it reprehensible that they couldn't just for once do something that wasn't conniving for profits and would actually help the greater good.

[Silverhair]

70. Actually, I am just a self educated layman in this field.

My major was math and physics. All my life I have subscribed to science magazines. A few decades ago I developed an interest in human overcrowding and what it could mean. With the internet (Access to information) and retirement (Free time) I have been able to indulge myself in this passion.

About a year ago, I became interested in Avian Flu. John M Barry's book: "The Great Influenza" has an excellent chapter on the flu virus. Everything else is from research on the web. In this thread alone there are some excellent sites that are posted for information.

I don't place much hope in the professional health services. Not because I think badly of them - I respect them. It is just that they will be overwhelmed at the magnitude of the disaster. Just like FEMA was expecting the ordinary aftermath of a hurricane and just wasn't prepared for what happened in New Orleans. (That does not let them off the hook. The warnings had been given and they should have expected it.)

Mostly it will come down to individual prevention by personal hygiene. And how bad it will be is still guesswork. The hope is that when it recombines, it will also drop the lethality.

However, the part of it's RNA code that controls the lethality is a different part than the one that controls the contagion among humans, so a contagious & lethal form is a distinct possibility.

[Coastie for Truth]

39. Some of the appends here are a warning

that we Progressives can be as scientifically illiterate as the "Intelligent Design" and "No Link Between Human Activity And Global Warming" and "No Link Between Global Warming and Hurricane Intensity" people on the Right.

[Silverhair]

45. You got it right on that !! NT

[Bridget Burke]

49. They say: "but you just need to wash your hands!"

That's always a good idea. But influenza virus can be airborne--you could get it by just being in the same room with an infected person. And that person's symptoms do not appear immediately.

The Avian Flu could become a serious problem, as many have been saying for years. There's no doubt that Bush & Co are trying to cause panic for their own purposes.

[Mojorabbit]

93. Amen to that! eom

[Coastie for Truth]

55. Here's the secret to knowing more about the flu then Bushco does

<>
Molecular Biology Made Simple and Fun by David P. Clark and Lonnie D. Russell is a good, readable book. A bit more in depth then



<>
Genetics for Dummies by Tara Rodden Robinson.

But, both books are worthwhile. And both hit the high points:

1. How a virus attacks you and makes you sick -- it takes over some of your DNA and modifies it to reproduce itself.

2. How your body fights a virus - "T" cells and white blood cells, and bone marrow.

3. How vaccines work.

4. How a virus changes from a "bird to bird" virus to a "bird to human virus" to a "human to human" virus.

5. What is happening at the DNA level - the virus' DNA and the bird's DNA, and the human's DNA.

Simple, readable, at about the level of college freshman biology and chemistry survey for liberal arts students, lost of stick figures. And not insulting.



Rule of thumb: start either of the books when the airplane pulls away from the terminal in California, finish it as the plane starts the approach on the East Coast - and you will know and understand more about Avian flu, genetics, and biochem then 99% of our fellow citizens.

[sarahlee]

57. Check out the Flu Wiki

http://www.fluwikie.com/">About Flu Wiki

Just a Bump in the Beltway, The Next Hurrah and Effect Measure blogs announce the launch of a new experiment in collaborative problem solving in public health, The Flu Wiki.

The purpose of the Flu Wiki is to help local communities prepare for and perhaps cope with a possible influenza pandemic. This is a task previously ceded to local, state and national governmental public health agencies. Our goal is to be:

* a reliable source of information, as neutral as possible, about important facts useful for a public health approach to pandemic influenza
* a venue for anticipating the vast range of problems that may arise if a pandemic does occur
* a venue for thinking about implementable solutions to foreseeable problems

No one, in any health department or government agency, knows all the things needed to cope with an influenza pandemic. But it is likely someone knows something about some aspect of each of them and if we can pool and share our knowledge we can advance preparation for and the ability to cope with events. This is not meant to be a substitute for planning, preparation and implementation by civil authorities, but a parallel effort that complements, supports and extends those efforts.

While we will continue to administer and maintain the Wiki, we are turning the wheel over to the community, to take it where the road leads us. There is a bit of a learning curve to driving this rig. We hope you will find the instructions sufficient to get started. You’ll soon be learning on your own.

What the Flu Wiki is not.

It is not:

* a news filter
* a discussion board
* a place to promote commercial products
* a soap box
* a place to advance pet theories

There is nothing wrong with these things. Many of us have blogs that do some or all of them. The wiki is not a replacement or competition for any existing blog or site. We hope existing sites will continue to grow, flourish and generally continue to carry out the important functions they have already done so well.

[pitohui]

61. i have some contacts in the poultry industry

they are not laying awake at night in fear for their lives

it's hype

[Silverhair]

78. H5N1 is not in the USA, even in poultry.

Further, it is not yet easily human to human contagious. The fear is that when it does become contagious, it will still be lethal.

[Kailassa]

84. Silverhair, I really commend your efforts.

Your patience amazes me. I hope you don't get discouraged from trying to educate people about the possibilities.


As I see it, there are two sets of questions to work out:

Set One.
1. What is are the possibility of bird-flu becoming a major problem?
2. What would it be wise to do about it now on an individual basis?
3. What should we be asking the government to do in preparation?

Set Two. (for tin-foil hatters like myself)
1. What does Bushco want us to believe?
2. What does they want to do?
3. What should we do about that?

Confusion starts when we mix up data from the two sets.
Whether or not Bushco wants us to be frightened is completely irrelevant to whether or not the virus is a threat.
(Unless the government was to actually spread it themselves.)

[Silverhair]

87. Excellent analysis.

I had not considered it from that angle, as I have been concentrating totally on the scientific side of the problem (Your set 1) and completely disregarded the other set of questions. (Your set 2.) And I have basically written off Question 3, Set 1 from my considerations - pessimism on my part.

You have stated it very clearly. They are two completely independent but related sets. Therefore, many people get confused.

[Skidmore]

94. I think the last comment you make is a legitimate one.

I am very worried about the lengths to which this government (administration and military) will go to preserve itself.

[Silverhair]

95. But it was first detected under Clinton.

And research would take some years. So if it is a Bush invention, then it is also a Clinton invention.

Or, it is a completely natural occurrence. No tinfoil hat needed.

[Mojorabbit]

97. Bird flu has poultry workers concerned

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- North Carolina poultry workers say they've been left in the dark as the world faces the looming threat of a potentially deadly bird flu.
http://www.news14charlotte.com/content/local_news/?ArID=104362&SecID=2

[warrens]

75. Right now, it's not that dangerous

But it's already mutated once in the past couple of years, and the chance of it mutating again is pretty significant. The main problem isn't really birds; it's airplanes. If we could isolate a really dangerous strain of human-to-human virus (right now it's bird-to-human, which is bad enough) we could buy enough time to develop a cure. But that is not possible with widespread global travel.

[soothsayer]

81. SARs was a bust (thank goodness) and I'm betting the boid flu

ain't comin' this year. Show me a billion dead Chinese and I'll start to worry, but right now...ain't nothin' happenin'.

[Silverhair]

85. I hope it is a bust.

Prior to hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans there were many posters who flamed those of us that were following the storm, accusing us of fear mongering. They claimed that it would be nothing worse than other major hurricanes that had hit the USA before. They did not say that out of knowledge of hurricanes and weather, but because in their world, it ain't cool to be admit to a danger.

When the virus mutates, if it keeps it's high lethality while gaining high contagion, then you won't have time to see a billion dead Chinese. With modern air travel, it will be here in days.

All of those who are scientifically knowledgeable about it are scared. I have yet to see a knowledgeable poster on the subject here on DU who is not also scared.

[Bridget Burke]

92. I'd consider myself more concerned than scared

But when I consider how Bush's government would handle a pandemic, I get scared.

[SaveElmer]

111. How about here...

Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, who has been treating Flu patients since the 1950's, and a professor of immunology believes this has been overblown

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/health/health.php?story=dispatch/2005/10/09/20051009-A10-00.html

[Silverhair]

116. Immunology is NOT the study of how flu viruses mutate.

That would be virology. The world virology community is very concerned.

How old is that doctor? That is about 50+years of practice to reach back to the 50's.

[SaveElmer]

119. What does his age matter?

He has worked with flu patients through two pandemics...

I don't see how his age has any bearing on his qualifications!

He is a virologist...he is a professor of immunology. I believe he was instrumental in developing high yield vaccine strains.

[Silverhair]

124. When the entire medical community is saying one thing,

and one medical person is standing against the tide, it is correct to ask his competence. I know it isn't politically correct, but age does matter. As we get older, we lose many of our facilities, often slowly and subtlely at first. If he was practicing in the 50's, then he is pretty long in the tooth by now. It is possible to still be sharp in ones very older years, but that is the exception, not the rule.

I will go with the rest of the scientific community's opinion. The research to date backs them up.

[SaveElmer]

126. There have been others with the same opinion...

The scientific community is no more cohesive than any other group...

It is not in the alarmist medias best interest to present evidence from those that do not take that view. I have seen others, some in this country, some overseas.

It is simply not reponsible to discuss something like this without including all reputable opinion.

No one, not even those who believe this has been somewhat overblown, do not believe in the possibility of this becoming a pandemic, and I have heard no one saying we should not be prepared. But providing only alarmist opinion, when there is equally as legitimate opinion on the other side is not wise either.

[Mojorabbit]

99. A good place to

follow the news around the world on this is
http://www.iflu.org/

You will see news stories from every country in the world and how they are preparing. Perhaps this will give those who think this a Bush creation some pause.

[IDemo]

107. Several points of concern, from a pbs interview with an expert:

Points below are taken from a PBS interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Lethalness: "The other important point is that this is a very highly lethal virus; it's killed 53 out of the 97 (55 percent) documented cases. It's unlike what we see in the regular flu, which is less than 1 percent."

Adaptability: -- "this virus has adapted itself to jump from chickens to humans in Asia."

No immunity: --"this is a virus, the H5-N1, which the human society has had no prior experience with. So there's no residual or baseline immunity." And, - "you don't have antibodies to it; I don't have antibodies to it."

Easily spread: --"it's important to understand, when we talk about contagious viruses -- and I know lots of people have heard of the so-called scary ones like Ebola and Marburg -- these are actually really hard to get compared to flu. This influenza virus can sit on a doorknob for six days and still be infectious to somebody who comes along six days later."

An inevitable epidemic: --"this isn't something that's going to just disappear. This is here to stay. We will have a pandemic sometime. It may be this year, next year, the year later."

Not enough vaccine: "The problem is that the vaccine-manufacturing capacity of the world is only anywhere between 300 million and 450 million. There are six billion people in the world."

Immune deficiency: "And worse yet, in 1918, we did not have hundreds of millions of people with immune deficiency in the world -- immune deficiency either because they were elderly, cancer patients, or probably most significant because they had HIV.."

[McCamy Taylor]

108. Bird-->human a problem in Asia where they buy live poultry in stores.

Here we buy our poultry dead and shrink wrapped. The virus has to mutate (or get engineered by the Pentagon) to be transmitted from person to person to be a risk to anyone but chicken farmers.

[IDemo]

110. Not exactly true

"Poultry dead and shrink wrapped", even if frozen, doesn't necessarily kill an influenza (or any other) virus. The 1918 flu virus was reconstructed recently from frozen tissue.

[Avalux]

114. Here's what I know:

The possibility of avian influenza A recombining with human influenza A to form a virus that's easily transmittable from human to human is very real. Go here for some info on the stages of a pandemic:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

However - predicting when it will occur is difficult, and so is predicting mortality rate. It could happen in a couple of years or as many as 50.

That said - I do see this whole thing being hyped by our government and the media and instead of educating people about this virus and how to take care of themselves, they're scaring them.

So this is how it is: Yes, a flu pandemic is a real possibility. Yes, the whole thing is being sensationalized. Somewhere within all of that, it's best to be prepared, educate yourself and understand what may happen.

[SaveElmer]

121. There ya go...

The facts...all the facts...not just the most alarming ones are what is needed for this discussion.

Preparation yes, panic no!

[notadmblnd]

128. Remember SARS?

We were all going to die of that too remember? I'm not saying this could not become a serious issue, but it has yet to jump from human to human, that is what scientists are afraid of. Currently you have to come into contact with/eat sick birds. So yes, if you are being fed or working around birds there is a great potential to contract this flu.

To date 60 world wide have died of this flu. It is not yet an epidemic nor a pandemic. Should we take precautions? Yes as we do every year to avoid colds and flus.

[Mojorabbit]

129. Well it is

confirmed in Turkey this morning.(in birds that is)
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/13/eu.birdflu/index.html?section=cnn_latest
"The virus found in Turkey is avian flu H5N1 high pathogenic virus," the EC's Health and Consumer Protection chief Markos Kyprianou told a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

Kyprianou said the EU executive did not yet know whether the cases of avian flu discovered in Romania were of the same virulent strain but they were assuming they were, pending final tests.


An emergency meeting of EU veterinary experts was to be held later in the day to try to determine which strain of flu had been found, The Associated Press reported.

Romania's chief veterinarian Ion Agafitei told Reuters that scientists detected the H5N1 virus in samples taken from three ducks found in the Danube delta.

[rfkrfk]

131. don't ignore KILLER BEES n/t