Reply #125: Yes it is possible for it to retain its lethality... [View All]

[SaveElmer]

But I believe the more likely outcome, and the one that occurs in the overwhelming majority of cases, is that it becomes less lethal for the reason stated.

Viruses don't think obviously, we have taken to talking about them as though they were some intelligent being, deciding what to do. But all life forms follow laws of natural selection, which states that life forms that adapt to their environment most successfully survive. Those that do not, die.

If a virus becomes too virulent, killing its host in a very short time, in less populated areas it is likely that mutation will die out, and another mutation - one less deadly - will survive.

And again, we do not actually now how lethal this virus is in its current form. We are only looking at those cases for which the patient sought medical treatment. There may be many more who contracted a milder form of the disease. In this case, it is not as lethal, in the former case, it is still very hard to catch - even bird to human. One hundred and seventeen cases in an area as densely populated as Asia, with the number of people handling birds speaks to this. Some scientists (including Dr. Kilbourne I believe), point to this as possible evidence that the virus may not have the ability to make that mutation.

We need to act as though it does though, and take the measures necessary to protect us. The reactions of the Romanian and Turkish governments is heartening in this regard. They acted swiftly.

Although now I am reading that not only have they not been able to confirm the H5N1 strain in those birds, it is becoming less likely that that is th strain responsible. My understanding is that a strain as apparently lethal as this one is very easy to test for, and if it is not appearing easily, it may not be that particular strain.