In the South, a Force to Challenge the GOP: Black turnout could challenge Republican domination

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: In the South, a Force to Challenge the G.O.P.
By ADAM NOSSITER and JANNY SCOTT
Published: May 16, 2008


(Michael H. Miller/AP)
Travis W. Childers won a surprise victory in Mississippi, thanks largely to a surge in black voters.

NEW ORLEANS — The sharp surge in black turnout that Senator Barack Obama has helped to generate in recent primaries and Congressional races could signal a threat this fall to the longtime Republican dominance of the South, according to politicians and voting experts.

Should Mr. Obama become the Democratic nominee, he would still have to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday’s presidential primary. In West Virginia, where more than three-fourths of white voters chose Mrs. Clinton, 20 percent of the white voters said the race of the candidate mattered in their choice. But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee.

To hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever. Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Some analysts suggest that North Carolina and Virginia may even be within reach for the Democratic nominee, and they point to the surprising result in a Congressional special election in Mississippi this week as an indicator of things to come....

***

Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said: “This is going to encourage the purplization of red states. It’s going to make red states purplish over time.”

Black voters made up a larger percentage of Democratic primary voters this year in several states than in the last two presidential election years, according to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks and The Associated Press this year and in 2004, and by the Voter News Service in 2000. In Maryland, for example, black voters rose to 47 percent of the total, up from 35 percent in 2004 and 28 percent in 2000....Still, it would take a shift in the electoral dynamic — a substantial stumble by John McCain, for instance — for Mr. Obama to put in play a state like Mississippi, where whites gave John Kerry only about 15 percent of their vote in 2004 and where voting in presidential elections is perhaps more racially polarized than anywhere else in the nation. Even with a heavy black turnout, Mr. Bositis estimated, Mr. Obama would have to increase his white percentage by at least a third, to about 20 percent, to win the state....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16south.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[babylonsister]

1. "...challenge Republican domination"! I can hope!

Hi, Mom! :hi: This would be poetic justice to me!

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Hi!

I've had to be offline for a while, and was able to get connected for a bit -- so am madly going through my "usual sources." A turnaround in the South would be such a great, great thing!

[napi21]

3. I hope he does, but I live in the south...Georgia. I don't have the feeling that

the black population is a high enough % of the population to really make a significant difference. I know HERE, Atlanta & Athens has a large black population, but I don't think the rest of the State has much at all. The little I know about Al & Ms makes me think they are very similar. Most of the black population are located in the large cities. I'm an old white lady and I voted for Barack in our Primary & will vote for him in the GE, but it seems to me we are going to have to convince a lot more people to vote for him and not rely on the black population to do it. There just aren't enough!

[Benhurst]

4. I agree. And we shouldn't forget how high African American support

for the Democratic ticket has been in the past, support we did not repay by going to fight for them in Florida in 2000 or Ohio 2004 when caging was obviously taking place.

I think the key will be whether or not the Repubs can get their base reunited and motivated.

And it depends on whether or not 2008 is stolen. Why in the hell didn't our "leaders," including Clinton and Obama, do something to address the past two stolen elections? If the election is close, as I suspect it will be, don't be surprised if McCain pulls an upset "victory." And the talking heads will say "When it came time to making a final decision for president,
America wasn't ready for an African American" or "wasn't ready for a woman," as the case may be.

[napi21]

5. Hmmm....I think there's a difference this year. Nothing will ever break the

hard core RWers, nor will anything break the hard core lefties, the they are both minorities of the total vote. There are a LOT of very upset people in the US right now, for a lot of different reasons. The economy, the war, the wrecking of the constitution, the risk of losing the SCOTUS for decades....and a lot more topics that have moderates & indi's very upset. I'm not saying it will be a cakewalk, but unless something totally unforeseen happens, I doubt McNut has much of a chance. He needs to send Shrub a nice thank you note for that!