State-by-State Election Match-Ups: Arkansas Rebound for Obama

[babylonsister]

State-by-State Election Match-Ups: Arkansas Rebound for Obama
June 15, 2008 10:23 AM


Here's the latest addition to our state-by-state general election match-ups:

* Arkansas: Obama has made a startling comeback against McCain in this state which Republicans have carried every year since 1980 with the exception of the two terms of favorite son Bill Clinton. A month ago, Rasmussen Reports had McCain leading Obama 57 percent to 33 percent in large part because he was getting 38 percent support from Democrats and leading by 24 points among unaffiliated voters. Now, Obama has closed that gap with McCain's margin at 48 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent choosing other and 5 percent undecided in a poll conducted June 12. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama seems to be climbing back in his support among fellow Democrats, counting 69 percent of them although McCain still holds a big lead among unaffiliated voters. Hillary Clinton sentiment here is still strong with 60 percent of Democrats believing she should be Obama's running mate, compared to 42 percent of overall voters in the state. Obama is now viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters and unfavorably by 54 percent, but that's an improvement from the ratio last month which was 38 percent to 61 percent. Twenty-seven percent say McCain is too old to be President while 56 percent say Obama is too inexperienced. Fifty-two percent put priority on bring American troops home from Iraq by the end of the next President's term versus 39 percent who favor winning the war. Sixty-three percent believe it is likely Obama will get them home compared to 33 percent for McCain.

Previously reported:

*

Oregon: Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll released June 13. Rasmussen says that's down from the 14 point lead Obama had in March, but that McCain's support has remained stalled between 38 percent and 42 percent since then. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in mid-May had Obama ahead 49 percent to 39 percent with a 4.1 percent margin of error. Obama's favorability rating in the Rasmussen poll slipped from 61 percent last month to 55 percent and McCain's dipped slight from 52 percent to 50 percent. Oregonians overall oppose putting Hillary Clinton on Obama's ticket by 53 percent to 27 percent, and even Democrats are pretty split about it, with 43 percent in favor and 38 percent against. Oregon has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988.
*

Minnesota: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 22. That's about the same as the Rasmussen result last month. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters, and of those, 35 percent are very favorable. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 50 percent to 32 percent, while he and McCain enjoy about equal margins of support from within their own parties. McCain is viewed favorably by 54 percent, although only 15 percent view him very favorably. Fifty-nine percent rejected the idea that McCain is too old to be President while 35 percent say he is. Forty-one percent say they think Obama is too inexperienced but 49 percent don't agree with that. Asked whether voters put the priority on the next President bring the troops home from Iraq by the end of his first term or on winning the war, getting the troops home won out by a 57 percent to 35 percent margin. A SurveyUSA poll conducted mid-May had Obama ahead of McCain by a lesser 47 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. The Democrats have won in every presidential election in the state since 1976.

more...

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/06/statebystate-election-matchups.html

[tekisui]

1. The way things are looking,

I see Obama with a solid 242 Electoral College votes, with CO, NM, VA, MO, OH, and MI in serious play(75 Total to pull 29 from).