'Palestinians need just two more Security Council votes in bid for statehood'

[Jefferson23]

Palestinian Foreign Minister says attempts underway to win over Gabon, Nigeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, in quest for UNSC majority; U.S. has vowed to veto the proposal if it cannot garner a blocking majority.
By DPA

Palestinian officials have so far enlisted the support of at least six or seven members of the 15-member Security Council in their bid to gain United Nations recognition as a sovereign state, a senior official said Tuesday.

"They are trying to convince two or three more Security Council members to vote in favor of accepting Palestine as a UN member state," Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Malki said.

The Palestinians hope to enlist nine members behind them, even if "the U.S. is going to veto it and embarrass itself," he told Voice of Palestine Radio from New York.

For any decision to pass in the 15-member Council, nine affirmative votes are needed, as well as no veto by any of the permanent Security Council members. The United States holds a veto and has promised to use it, if necessary.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/palestinians-need-just-two-more-security-council-votes-in-bid-for-statehood-1.385604

[oberliner]

1. Even if they get 2 out of 3, they are still short

I think Nigeria will be a yes.

Bosnia and Gabon could go either way, but let's say one of them votes yes and one abstains.

By my count, that makes only 8 yes votes (Nigeria, Bosnia/Gabon, Lebanon, South Africa, China, Russia, India, and Brazil).

The non-yes group being: USA, Germany, Colombia, UK, France, Portugal, Bosnia/Gabon.

Seems like they need yes votes from all 3 (Nigeria, Bosnia, and Gabon) to reach nine.

What am I missing?

[Jefferson23]

2. It is speculation of course, but what you seem to have missed

in your count is this from the OP: Portugal, earlier still defined as undecided, by Tuesday seemed inclined to vote with the Palestinians, Israeli officials said.

This matter is still up in the air imo, I hedge no bets, especially about abstentions.

[oberliner]

8. I think the EU will vote as a block

Portugal will join the other EU nations in abstaining, I believe.

[RZM]

3. I think Gabon and Nigeria will both vote yes

And Bosnia will abstain. As another poster pointed out, Portugal could vote yes. My prediction is that they make it to 9 and then the US casts the veto.

[shira]

4. You think the Oil Lobby is trying to sweeten some deals with these nations so that they vote yes?

I sure do...

[RZM]

5. I really don't know. I imagine so

I'm sure there's scrambling going on at the state department right now as well to get as many abstentions as possible. We'll see who plays a better game, I guess. If it is a contest between oil and US diplomacy, I think oil has the edge.

[azurnoir]

10. Gee ya think maybe the US is doing the same with aid packages to poorer nations on the UNSC ?

everyone workin' it

[Ken Burch]

6. Is it just majority rules on this, or does the "big countries with guns can veto" rule apply?

n/t.

[oberliner]

7. Any of the 5 permanent members can veto

I think the US would, but would prefer not to have to.

[Jefferson23]

9. Nigerian president says country to abstain in Security Council vote

Published: 09.20.11, 23:35 / Israel News



Defense Minister Ehud Barak's office announced that during his meeting with the Nigerian president in New York, Barak convinced him to abstain in the vote on Palestinian statehood in the Security Council. (Attila Somfalvi)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4125135,00.html

[oberliner]

11. That is pretty big news

Wonder if Gabon or Bosnia will follow suit.

[Jefferson23]

12. 'Carter says Palestinians can live without American aid'

By JPOST.COM STAFF AND TOVAH LAZAROFF
09/18/2011 10:54


Non-recognition of Palestinian state would be worse than losing US aid, former US president says in interview with 'Al-Masry Al-Youm.'

Former US president Jimmy Carter said that the "Palestinians can live without American aid," in an interview with Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm published Saturday. Carter was referring to US threats to cut funds to the Palestinian Authority should it take its statehood bid to the United Nations.

The non-recognition of a Palestinian state would be worse than losing US aid, he explained: "It's time for international recognition of a Palestinian state."

The former US president was optimistic about Palestinian efforts to achieve statehood, telling the Egyptian daily he believes they will yield positive results at the UN, although not necessarily in the Security Council.

A flurry of intense diplomatic activity to prevent the Palestinians’ unilateral statehood bid at the United Nations this week is expected to take place in the next few days, as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu prepares to head to New York – possibly as early as Tuesday night.


Envoys from the Quartet of Middle East negotiators will meet on Sunday in New York as part of this last-ditch effort.

The US, one of only five permanent members with veto power in the 15-member body at the Security Council that has veto power, is expected to block the Palestinian bid. The Palestinians are then likely to ask the UN General Assembly to upgrade their status to that of an observer member. They already have majority support for that move in the General Assembly.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=238382