When did Montana, North Dakota and ALASKA go pink?

[hedgehog]

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

[Blue_In_AK]

1. Nice! I like that.

It will be very interesting to watch what happens here now that Steve Branchflower's report has been released.

[napi21]

2. Gov. of MT. was on CNN yesterday. He said Ron Paul, who isn't

being calculated in the polls, has 4-6 points, so he's convinced that the race is tied!

[Lasher]

6. Is Paul running?

Don't think so.

[napi21]

7. He's on the Mt. ballot, so said the Gov. He said Mt. is one of the few

states where he IS on the ballot.

[Lasher]

9. OK, thanks for the education.

His general election candidacy is not mentioned in Wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Third_party_and_independent_candidates

[KayLaw]

53. Paul will get plenty of votes.

A lot of people on the housing bubble/peak oil/economic disaster sites I visit plan to write him in. Others plan to vote Libertarian or - to avoid Palin - will vote for Obama.

[Bicoastal]

24. No, no, no--it was BARR he was talking about, not Paul.

[napi21]

34. See this link and a number of others.

Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot
He'll be the nominee of the Constitution Party:


On September 5, the ballot-qualified Constitution Party of Montana submitted its presidential elector candidates to the Secretary of State. The party informed the Secretary of State that its electors are pledged to Ron Paul for president and Michael Peroutka for vice-president. Ron Paul was aware that the party planned to do this, and has said that as long as he can remain passive and silent about the development, and as long as he need not sign any declaration of candidacy, that he does not object.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Although THIS link doesn't state it, Ron Paul is on the ballot in TWO STATES. MT & LA.

Most say it won't matter in LA, but could be a definite game changer in MT!

BTW, Paul is running as the Constitutional Party candidate. Barr is the Libertarian Party candidate.

[Lasher]

54. Chuck Baldwin is the Constitution Party nominee.

Darrell Castle is their VP nominee. How can the Constitution Party have different candidates runiing in different states for the same national offices of President and Vice President?

:wtf:

[Essene]

33. ron paul has asked not to be on the ballot. He is not running

[XemaSab]

27. Montana wound up being in the Clinton column

probably due to the Perot factor.

It could happen again.

[Lasher]

3. Elecoral Vote.com still shows AK & SD red.

And WV just went blue. That is not reflected at Politico.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[hedgehog]

4. There's some variation from site to site. I'm just excited that a lot of states are

in motion, and they're headed our way.

Your link shows Mississippi in motion while Politico and Real Politics show it still solid red. I think we're seeing things begin to move fast.


You know what else starts slow and then moves fast?

A Landslide!

:woohoo:

[Lasher]

12. Yay, that's the spirit!

I hope McLoser doesn't carry a single state.

[Odin2005]

13. OMG, West Virginia is Blue!!!

West Virginia is BLUE!!! :woohoo:

[Lasher]

47. Yay!

I don't know if this will hold up when the next poll comes around but I'm pretty excited about it for now!

[fujiyama]

25. All electoral vote does is take the very last poll released

regardless of the pollster. It's a fun site, but I wouldn't take it that seriously.

I prefer the other sites like RCP because they use averages. For example, the WV poll is by ARG, which has a spotty record this year. That same batch of polls showed Obama up ONE in MN. Sorry, I'm not buying that he's up more in WV than MN..

Now, it definitely is possible Obama is up in WV. The state is hurting bad. And I have seen one or two other polls showing it within 5 points, but to really confirm that Obama is ahead there we need another poll showing that.

[Spider Jerusalem]

35. fivethirtyeight.com is probably better than RCP

RCP's weighting tends to favour Republicans; this has been commented on by quite a few observers--for instance, see Andrew Sullivan on this, here and here.

[fujiyama]

36. Five Thirty Eight is the best

I'm obsessed with that site. I sure hope his current model is right because it's very favorable to us!

[Lasher]

51. I don't disagree.

But I'm OK with Electoral Vote.com as long as I know what I'm looking at. Like you say it's the latest polls. But I have found that they are excellent at keeping their maps up to date.

Now RCP is excellent with their averaging because it increases the sample size, which reduces the margin for error. And they exclude surveys that are questionable, in their view.

However, the RCP average for WV (McCain +2.2) might not be the best indicator right now because there have not been many WV polls. Because of this, the second most recent poll is over two weeks older than the newest one. And the oldest one comes from a month ago. McCain led by 2.9% in the national RCP average on 09/08, which is the date of this oldest included WV poll.

I'm not saying you're wrong but wanted to throw this angle into the discussion. This one poll might indicate Obama is indeed up by 8% in the Mountain State, and then again it might not. But for now, I'll take it.

And the Mountaineers won today. Yay!

[Fluffdaddy]

5. Someone at Politico must be on weed today .Montana, North Dakota and ALASKA go pink

No fucking way. When the last time those state every went for us?

[FrenchieCat]

8. You don't sound happy?

No one is counting on these states, but "No fucking way" is a rather strong disclaimer in helping generate positivity and momentum. why be that way? How does it help? No one is holding their breath at this bit of good news.

[Lasher]

11. I posted one about the possibility that we might win a 60 vote Senate majority.

After the gloomy replies I felt like I'd farted in church.

[FrenchieCat]

16. Obama has spoken about the naysayers.......

many times. They are the ones without hope who believe that they are in the majority. What they don't realize is that there are more people who don't think like them. One day, they too will believe; but it will be on hindsight.

[Lasher]

46. Mon verre est à moitié plein.

It's good to hope for the best, even if we must plan for the worst.

[Fluffdaddy]

17. At my age I no longer need false hopes. I live in the real world

We will not win those states. Obama is not even campaigning there

[Spider Jerusalem]

40. Montana went for Clinton in '92

the others, not since 1964.

[Fluffdaddy]

42. Thank You, that says it all. I live in the real world.

[abumbyanyothername]

50. 446 for Barack

Including MT, ND and . . . AZ, TX, GA and OMAHA!

[On the Road]

10. What Mean?

When the last time those state every when for us?

[Fluffdaddy]

18. Sorry...I meant...................(WENT)

[fujiyama]

23. Clinton carried Montana in '92

It was very close and Perot took a huge chunk. Ron Paul is on the ballot there. It remains to be seen what kind of damage he can do to McCain.

ND and AK both went Dem in '64. Neither are really in play. ND had some staffers and volunteers, but Obama shifted those to MN about a month ago. Both were polling fairly close earlier on. I even recall one poll showing Obama UP in ND at one time, but that's why it's stupid to look at individual polls with no context (like this ARG VW poll). Palin boosted McCain's numbers in both ND and AK.

However '64 is also the last year VA went Dem as well though (which we all know is a prime battleground state), so we're seeing some interesting shifts this election. NC last went Dem in '76 and that is effectively in play now too.

[Fluffdaddy]

43. Thank You, that says it all. I live in the real world.

[XemaSab]

29. 1992

:P

[Fluffdaddy]

45. Thanks

[Bucky]

14. Politico is a kind of flaky outfit

I don't put much faith in their reporting -- even on numbers.

[Fluffdaddy]

20. Wow, someone else that politically lives in the real world .

I like reading Politico.com, but I don't trust their polls

[Arctic Dave]

15. We have been busting our butts up here in AK.

I tell my wife, Arctic Jodie, she has set up a "South Anchorage Obama Command Center" in our house. Everytime I come home, there are people making calls, writing LTTE or postcards and getting ready for or coming from canvassing.

It is sooooo awesome.

[Muttocracy]

19. great! nt

[Fluffdaddy]

21. I always respect people that live behind enemy lines, but still fight the good fight

I tip my hat to you and your wife :hi:

[Blue_In_AK]

22. And, Dave, wouldn't you say

that if attendance at rallies is any indication, Obama's got McCain/Palin beat by about four to one in Alaska? And, of course, the Troopergate report doesn't help Palin any.

I'm hoping that the entire nation will be pleasantly surprised when they wake up November 5 and see that Obama took Alaska. :) Hope springs eternal.

[fujiyama]

26. As it's looking less likely that Palin will be VP

what are the odds that Trooper-Gate will end her political career as governor?

After having a look at her for a few weeks now, I've come to absolutely despise the woman. I don't think she should be near a position of political power at all.

[Blue_In_AK]

30. She's burned a lot of bridges here

with former allies in the past month and a half. I personally think she's going to have a hard time making up with everybody whom she's offended with her over-the-top rhetoric. We hadn't seen this side of her before and it's not sitting well with a lot of people.

[Arctic Dave]

32. Blue, I would love to see the numbers for Obama

in the villages. If they are as strong as I think they are, he just might win it up here.

[Blue_In_AK]

37. Sarah really hasn't made many friends out there, has she?

She seems to be completely tone deaf when it comes to Native issues.

[Arctic Dave]

49. I was up in Barrow a little while back

there was a young man holding a baby boy of mixed race(possibly NA and AA) everybody in the airport was coming up to him and calling him Obama. I don't know if that was the babies actual name or if they called him that because of his skin color. Either way I thought it was really neat. :)

[vaberella]

28. When Palin was interviewed by Couric?! But I called AK weeks ago. n/t

[Doctor_J]

31. Let's remain sane here, people

Those states will be safe wins for McSame.

[Blue_In_AK]

41. Oh, well, then I guess we'll just give up.

Thanks for the vote of confidence -- NOT!

[jillan]

38. Look at MO - a tie.

Obama and/or Biden should be spending more time there.

[janx]

39. I don't know about North Dakota, but Alaska and Montana

are two of my favorite states. The Dem party has made inroads re Montana (Schweitzer, Tester), and is at least paying attention to Alaska in a way that they didn't before.

50-state strategy!!! Thanks again, Howard Dean!

[myrna minx]

48. North Dakota traditionally gives its Electoral College vote to the Republican nominee,

but they'll send Democrats Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad to the Senate and Earl Pomroy to the House.

[Motown_Johnny]

44. I think it was when he had to pull out of Michigan, if he can't compete here he looks weak

[jmowreader]

52. McCain's got serious problems in Montana

First problem: right-wing Montana voters aren't stuck with ONLY the Republican candidate this cycle. Conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote for Reverse Ace can choose from two clinically-insane candidates, either of whom, sad to say, would make a better president than would John McCain. The Libertarians are offering former Republican Bob Barr; the Constitution Party is offering former Republican (and onetime DU darling, until his supporters here figured out the only thing they agreed with him on was the need to end the war) Ron Paul. Those guys are going to siphon some support from McSame. Whether it will be enough to turn the state blue is an open question.

Second problem: Montana in 2008 may be the first state where a downticket race has coattails. Brian Schweitzer is a popular governor. Add to that the fact Montana has TWO Democratic senators (the congressman is a Repuke) and it becomes apparent Montanans are not averse to voting blue. People may go to the polls to reelect Schweitzer and vote for Obama while they're in the booth.

Third problem: Obama's plans to fund alternative energy sources, specifically wind, will help us here. There's an old Northwest joke about the "Montana Wind Gauge" which is made from fifty feet of logging chain--if it's sticking straight out, the wind's blowing. The reality is that in a lot of the more sparsely-populated parts of Montana, the wind never stops blowing--perfect conditions for installing wind farms. Montana also has a lot of coal, which can be turned into liquid fuel at new, ecologically-sound factories. If Obama wins the election, Montana is going to be right at the head of the line for a vast amount of federal grant money.

Put all three together, and I expect Montana to be colored blue the day after the election.