Rate's Santorum's chances at the 2012 GOP nomination.

[saltpoint]

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum appears to be forging a rationale for a run for the presidency:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/60693-santorum-stoking-iowa-buzz


How likely do you feel Santorum is to win the Republican nomination?

[jschurchin]

1. You mean this Rick Santorum

*he did not have a problem with homosexuals, but "a problem with homosexual acts"

*the right to privacy "doesn't exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution"

*and that sodomy laws properly exist to prevent acts which "undermine the basic tenets of our society and the family"

That Santorum? He has NO FUCKING CHANCE.

[saltpoint]

2. I hope no one feels Rick-polled by this question. The idea of

posting the poll is to get a notion among DUers having Sunday morning coffee of their take on Santorum's odds against the likely Republican field.

That Rick Santorum is a dangerous, bigoted egomaniac is not in question. I'm just taking a head count of who thinks what about his chances.

[grantcart]

3. 100% on one condition

IF there is a God in heaven and He gives a crap he will let this loser get the nomination and lose in the greatest landslide in history.

[saltpoint]

4. God is great!

Hi, grantcart.

I'd be nervous about Santorum's winning the nom, but I absolutely LOVE your outcome.

[saltpoint]

5. If Santorum does go ahead full steam with a run, it will be interesting to

see how his name on the Iowa and New Hamsphire caucus/primary ballots scrambles the vote.

There's a big difference in eventual actual contenders and possible likely contenders.

Would EX-Governor Palin run as a Republican or as some kind of rogue indepedent?

This could get interesting, folks.

[nevergiveup]

6. I voted "best" because I want him so badly to get the nomination.

In every way he exemplifies the Republican Party. He is the perfect candidate for the right wing scumbags who have taken over the party. He is Rush in a nice suit with a wife and kids.

[saltpoint]

7. Yes. He is as extreme as Limbaugh, or maybe even worse, but dresses

nattily.

I wonder if it was ever determined if he lived in Pennsylvania or Virginia. There was quite a kerfluffle about it during his failed re-election bid for the Senate.

In the coming weeks I want to see if we can learn who is supporting him. Whoever IS supporting him is someone I don't want to hang out with.

[E-Z-B]

48. I agree! I hope he wins t he nomination.

It's smooth sailing for the dems from there.

[AllentownJake]

8. He can't win PA

He is universally hated here. He lost by 20 points in a re-election campaign.

[saltpoint]

9. He did, and it was a damn fine night, too.

He was whomped.

Still, there the fool is out in Iowa, shaking hands and raising money.

It's gonna be a wild one over in Pukeland.

[AllentownJake]

10. I still watch that concession speech

When I'm in a bad mood. My mood becomes better. It's cruel but the crying Santorum spawn brings a smile to my face.

[saltpoint]

11. They did look terribly discombobulated. While Casey isn't my

favorite Democrat ever he's certainly a vast improvement over man-on-dog Rick Santorum.

The GOP leadership has suffered terribly in the last few election cycles. Frist quit, Santorum was massacred at the polls, Ensign got his wiener caught in the media, and they're left with neanderthals like McConnell and Kyl. If it weren't so delightful, it would be kinda pathetic.

[AllentownJake]

12. Yes and the PA democratic party

is still too stupid to capture the State Senate.

PA is a state of political stupidity. Pro-Life Republicans and Pro-choice democrats.

Due to the Tea Baggers I doubt this will happen but there is a chance the gubernatorial candidate in the GOP next year will be more liberal than the democratic one.

[saltpoint]

14. Maybe the Glenn Beck - Bachmann - Steele - Limbaugh axis will

teeter and collapse, generating better, more progressive Democratic candidates in the next few election cycles.

I'm hopeful. Not betting huge sums on it just yet, but the GOP really is in a graver crisis than its "leaders" imagine. They don't know how disconnected they are from popular opinion. Voters are trying to tell them that the extreme positions on stem cell research and gay marriage etc. are not workable in this day and age, but nobody in the GOP seems to be listening.

[AllentownJake]

17. They got their ass kicked the last two elections

and the conservatives think it is because they weren't conservative enough after an administration that would make Ronald Reagan think they were taking things a bit far.

The difference between a Republican and a Democratic majority is, in a Republican majority the moderates are called into a room and told to shut their mouths and do what you are told. In a democratic majority, the liberal wing is told that by the moderates.

Whenever the democrats lose they blame the liberals, whenever the republicans lose they blame the moderates. There will be no leftward direction till that dynamic changes.

[saltpoint]

18. Yes. You properly describe it as a 'dynamic,' and, IMO that's exactly

right.

Changing a dynamic is noble work, but very frustrating. If some form or other of a public option is in the final, passed bill, and Obama signs it, Jim DeMint will be found to have collapsed in despair on the floor of the Senate, since he rightly declared that the GOP can break Obama by clogging up health care reform, and its passage would spell re-election for the president.

I'd prefer single payer but if the final bill has a public option and decidedly more Americans are covered than ever before, it's very difficult to imagine the Republicans taking the White House in 2012, especially with the gaggle of idiots and thieves contending for their nomination.

If Obama cruises to re-election, the Pukes will have to concede that more to the Right has not worked for them and makes the rationale for their return to power even less persuasive. I think you are right to say that they think they've lost ground because they haven't been Right enough.

I am secretly rooting for Palin to run as an independent, to further siphon votes from the GOP ticket. The crazies would be attracted to Palin as an end-run, apocalyptic, hyper-libertarian reflex, and it would be more than enough to sink a Huckabee or a Pawlenty, or whoever actually winds up on the Republican ticket. They have electoral college difficulties now. Even moreso if Palin goes rogue.

If that happened, the Republican Party might have to fold. That would be the fastest route, IMO, to changing that dynamic.

[AllentownJake]

19. Not really that simple

Parties rise and fall based on economic results. Jim DeMint is an idiot. Health Care reform isn't the President's waterloo, unemployment is.

If in 2012 people think they are doing better now than at the beginning of the recession/depression and that there is hopes of more personal economic gains and mobility, Barack Obama is re-elected.

If in 2012 they don't think that Barack Obama loses in a landslide.

All elections always come down to economics. Which baffles me that the administration took on Health Care as the second major issue of the Presidency. My only explanation is that they either understimated the economic situation or overestimated the stimulus bill to addresss it.

If there is a continued bad economic climate in 2012 look for Michael Bloomberg or another billionaire to run as an independent, because the people will blame both political parties than.

Look at every election since 1928, all are due to economics and all other issues are secondary.

[saltpoint]

22. Agree that unemployment weighs more, but Reagan, who cruised to

re-election, began his term with withering economic indicators. The rececession of that time was also severe and its inept handling by Reagan administration officials prompted the New York TIMES to suggest that "The stench of failure hangs over the Reagan administration," in the context of the severity of the recession matched to their perception of Reagan's incompetence in facing it.

Obama is widely perceived as a good man in bad times, something Reagan did not accomplish in his first term.

Economic collapse would of course alter the political dynamic because it would mangle the social scaffolding around it.

To bring this full circle, I'm not myself seeing the rationale for a Santorum candidacy. He is too much the litte-man anger goblin. "Feisty" has political currency, but "obnoxious" does not. In the worst case scenario, that is (from our perspective), an economic downturn plus a failure to pass health care legislation, still does not generate a rationale for a Santorum nomination.

[AllentownJake]

24. Santorum would never be able to capture the under 60 vote

Santorum is a conservative's wet dream on social issues. Santorum's values do not match up with the majority of people under the age of 60.

Hitler was able to sell anti-semitism in Germany because the country had a long history of it.

Santorum can't sell anti-woman and anti-gay rhetoric to a majority of the people under 60.

Hate only works when prejudice existed in a large extent before the hate is sold to the next degree.

America is a lot more tolerant about racial, sexual orientation, and disability issues in 2009 than it was in 1980 and for that reason it is a lot harder to run on those idealogies.

For all the ground the left lost on economics they made a lot of gains on social issues.

[saltpoint]

25. And there are more liberal viewpoints intelligently presented -- though

we could always use some more -- than there were before the Congressional mid-term in 2006.

Although I have no idea who it might be, I like to imagine that someone --ANYONE -- in the GOP is meeting in a think tank conference room, charts and graphs spread across the table, and concluding that the louder and more strident the Party becomes in its alignment with the crazies and propagandists and fear-mongers and hate-hosts, etc., the more clearly visible the demise of the party of Lincoln becomes.

I cannot imagine, for example, Charles Percy or John Danforth having lunch with John Cornyn or Tom Coburn or Jim Inhofe or any number of the other right wing zombies currently representing the GOP in the upper chamber. It's just hard to imagine that Percy or Danforth would have anything to say to people who are so self-absorbed and hateful and divisive.

There is a lot of reason for encouragement in your observation. The Republican Party is shrinking correspondent to the percentage of Americans to whom its limitations appeal.

[AllentownJake]

26. You want gains on economic issues

You have to get them through the entertainment industry. People don't go to a church anymore to find out what is socially acceptable. They get that from their movies and TV and gay people and women equality has been made acceptable through entertainment.

Mainstream entertainment dictates a large portion of societal thinking.

Want to know why their isn't as big of an outrage over torture look to the movies and TV shows.

Want to know why war is more acceptable in 2009 than it was in 1988 look at the entertainment.

In the late 1970s to early 1980s Mash an anti-war TV series was the most popular TV show on TV. During the Bush years 24 was one of the most popular TV shows.

The Romans knew what they were doing when they made executions and gladiator fights the main source of the nation's entertainment.

[Justitia]

13. Wasn't that sweet? My family back in PA loved it. Ahhh, good times. -eom

[AllentownJake]

15. Enjoy!

[Justitia]

16. What a great way to start Sunday morning, brings a smile to my face - Thanks! -eom

[Joe Bacon]

39. It's The Addams Family!

SNAP SNAP :rofl:

[GrantDem]

20. I voted "other'

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

[saltpoint]

23. There's that, yes plus we don't know the final shake-out on declared

candidates.

With a field of near-nobodies, a late-entry by someone like Jeb Bush is not out of the question.

Or Gingrich.

Or someone even worse than either.

[polichick]

21. A better chance now than before Palin reared her ugly head. nt

[WinkyDink]

27. Somebody is NUTS is they think Ricky stands a chance! (I'm in PA.)

[saltpoint]

28. Santorum himself would very likely be the first somebody on your list.

As the link suggests, he's in Iowa with the apparent motive of pursuing the presidency.

[WinkyDink]

35. I'll get my "Man on dog" sign ready.

[Sebastian Doyle]

29. I'd like to believe he had no chance

But I never thought they would nominate an idiot in 2000 or a vice idiot in 2008 either, and look what happened. :rofl:

The party of Quayle, Chimpy, and Palin? Oh hell yeah, it's a definite possibility.

[saltpoint]

46. Agree -- at this point the GOP has backed itself into a small corner and

the only way out is character assassination of the incumbent Democrat, broad-brushed propaganda strokes against Democrats generally, and unholy alliances among their own crazy kind.

Santorum certainly is sneaky enough to be a contender. So far though I don't think he has much money and he can't win the Republican primaries without out-crazying the crazies, and that's no small chore within the GOP.

It's gonna get good real early.

[AlinPA]

30. Palin will beat him in the primaries. nt

[saltpoint]

32. That is a startling prediction, AlinPA. You could be right.

Do you think Palin is going for the GOP nom or do you think she is going to be the wolf-murdering, moose-guttin' rogue and try a third-party bid?

[AlinPA]

34. She'll go for it, if not she will be drafted at the convention. IMO, the right loves her. nt

[saltpoint]

36. Wow. If the Republicans draft and nominate Sarah Palin, they have

really ordered a giant pink bunny for way more than they can afford.

Agree with you -- it would be a total picnic for us.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

47. Who would be her likely running mate?

I don't think she or the right would tolerate any candidate even slightly to the left of Palin. In fact, they'd probably claim that Palin is mainstream and that they need someone farther to the right. A Grand Dragon or Cyclops, maybe?

[AlinPA]

50. That would a tough pick for them. Ridge would not work. Santorectum maybe. nt

[saltpoint]

51. Agree that Ridge would not work. Certainly not for us and even for

the hypercons who don't care for his domestic issues records on Choice.

The Republicans generally are having problems in Pennsylvania.

[Canuckistanian]

31. Santorum has already had his ass handed to him

You'd think he'd get a clue or two.

But he's quite welcome to try.

I see his chances being the same as for Ollie North or the Newt. They poll well among RW extremists, but are shunned by the vast majority.

[saltpoint]

33. And at least so far, Santorum doesn't seem to have a national base to get

started from.

He lacks the celebrity of Palin, the charm of Huckabee, and the cash of Willard.

So it's hard to say how he will do, except it just doesn't seem likely that he could win without at least two of those three things, and having none of the three, there is in Iowa, in winter, sucking off the ethanol lobby on this or that pig farm at the rate of a dozen a day.

[Canuckistanian]

38. The GOOD thing about people not knowing Santorum

Is that they'll Google the word "Santorum" :evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

43. LOL. Yep, there's that. Santorum himself prompted that little problem.

He went around for a long time picking fights where none needed to be picked.

[burning rain]

37. Somewhere between none & zilch.

Getting crushed as he did in 2006 kills his future chances. He has nothing to offer even as veep.

[Renew Deal]

40. After watching the last crop of losers I'd say anything is possible.

Republicans decided that McCain was the least bad in 2008 and that's not saying much.

[saltpoint]

42. Agree. It was a very weak field of GOP candidates, and lots of them.

I thought McCain was cooked early on but no one else had any traction or a nationl base or a demographic rationale so he survived to win the nomination.

Good point.

[old mark]

41. Well, he was my Senator along with Specter, and he's got the necessary

GOP qualifications: He's a clever but stupid prick with no conscience (Sounds like W) he thinks he's well spoken but says really terrible things (Poverty builds moral character)and nobody really liked him after they got to know him. I guess the GOP views this as his positives.

Negative: He does not have the name recognition of say Lindsay Graham or Sarah Palin, ore even a "moderate" like Mitt or Newt.
He might run early but he won't last.

I hope they have a thousand candidates, all eating GOP resources and effort, all fighting each other.

mark

[Perky]

44. Don't laugh He actually has the bonafides to lead the whatckos that the GOP has become.

Don't think he has a shot in hell at besoming President but I can certainly seem him getting the nomination. particularly given the strength of the Pro Life movement in Iowa and New Hampshire reticence about Palin.

He is just craxy enough to get the tea baggers organized,

[saltpoint]

45. It's odd how someone as angry and wacked out as Santorum is can

draw the crazies.

It is possible that he could draw enough of them -- and their donations -- to scare off a few of the other hypercon Pukes.

It would be really interesting to see the outcome of his internal polling in Iowa, for example.

[damonm]

49. Had to do "other" as "snowball's chance in an F15's afterburner" wasn't available...

[Phoonzang]

52. Santorum/Palin all the way!! nt

[Ganja Ninja]

53. It's the Fem-Fuhrer's race to lose. n/t