UA political science prof says Riley will cruise to re-election

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http://www.decaturdaily.com/decaturdaily/news/051225/guesses.shtml

The Alabama governor's race will be between current Gov. Bob Riley and current Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, and Riley will win, projects David Lanoue, chair of The University of Alabama's Political Science Department. Lanoue predicts Riley will defeat Baxley by a margin of five to 10 percentage points.

"General satisfaction with the state of affairs in Alabama will propel Gov. Riley to a relatively easy November re-election," he says. "Baxley will have a difficult time making the case for replacing Riley. With primary elections over, most Christian conservatives will return to the GOP fold. Although strong African-American support for the Democratic nominee will prevent the race from being a total blowout, Riley should coast to victory."

The gubernatorial primaries in June will be different for each party. Lanoue predicts that the Democratic primary race between Baxley and former
Gov. Don Siegelman will be close — almost too close to call — while the Republican primary will not be.

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"Baxley will run a low-key race, depending on positive campaign advertisements and letting the media coverage of Siegelman's legal problems speak for itself. Siegelman, on the other hand, will run a vigorous campaign and give Baxley the sort of challenge she's never faced before. Honestly, if this one went the other way, I wouldn't be entirely surprised."