Hillary C. maybe has a shot at AR, but what about B. Obama--why

[m.standridge]

does it always have to feel this way? I feel so embarassed when I think of how we'd get viewed, in that respect.
Giuliani against Obama, with 22 states with no paper-receipt voting machine systems at this time. Doesn't look good, does it?
Yet, even if the machines were all on the up and up--e.g., here in AR we have reformed and now have paper receipt machines--what chance would the Senator from Illinois have to carry this state?
On the other hand, Hillary might. I wish I could be one of those people who can gloss over the feelings about this.
I don't have a problem with Hillary carrying the state. That, in itself, is a-ok, wonderful even, should it happen.

I'm just saying, I'm older now, I remember how we had to harden our hearts to Jesse Jackson's impassioned Presidential campaigns in the '80s because "he can't carry anything but DC". I'm tired of hardening my heart that way. It just is tiring.
I love this state, and in many ways, the people here. We are common people, and poor people. We generally benefit from Democratic Party policies, even more than other parts of the South. Yet how often do we admit to it?

And, I grow impatient now, as a white male blue-collar worker (who's gotten educated, to little avail), with my little green, but poor, state.
I want to pull us up and out of this pit we stay in--always 49th in this and that (good thing). One thing that could help, is to let go of our racial prejudice.
I really think a lot of us are genuinely trying. And I'm proud of that.
I just am too old for this hard-hearted thinking anymore--scared of Obama as a candidate because "he can't carry Arkansas."
Just venting, I guess. It's just that, I wish it could always be just the voting machine reforms that were the problem. But you know and I know, it's a heart-achin' truth that that isn't the only problems with getting Democrats to actually vote for this or that candidate.

[HappyWeasel]

1. The problem with Arkansas-

Is that they are distracted by civil rights/identity issues REALLY easily. I believe that Arkansas is one of only two other states (Utah and Lousiana and MAYBE Idaho) where a referendum to ban ALL abortions would pass. There's two things we need to do- start winning the debate or more easily, find a way to accomodate anti-abortion moderates into the party without sacrificing our principles. I think we did a good job of doing that in '06....and it wouldn't hurt much I don't think, either. Bush was still able to carry many more pro-chocie moderates than Kerry was able to carry anti-abortion moderates.

[m.standridge]

2. In a lot of ways, the key is going to be that Giuliani

is frayed around the edges as a conservative. His turnout is going to be low among conservatives who oppose abortion rights, gun control, and gay issues. There's going to be the "ghost of H. Ross Perot" to drag votes from him. It isn't necessary to court those people. They're chasing that ghost.
The problem is going to be, getting southern Democrats to vote for Obama if he's the candidate, the same way they'd vote for Hillary or Edwards.

Keep in mind, the only significant difference there, among those three, is the race. The race.
The positions on the issues are nearly identical.
That's the kind of reality that really waters down the Democratic Party the most, outside of the high costs of the campaigns.
There's a giddy feeling, knowing that Obama could do very well in the Electoral College, UP there, and OUT there, voting machines being sufficiently reformed. But I also recall that starin' at the mud puddle feeling, as to where he'd go here in Arkansas.

[HappyWeasel]

3. Then again, maybe race relations aren't as bad in Arkansas and their conservatism is just based on

seperation of church and state issues... Also, it is pretty hard to carry both the socially moderate and economically right west (a lot of conservative westerns don't give a rats ass about about abortion, gays or pot, but want to make sure that they get to keep their guns and hunting licences) and the economically moderate and socially conservative south (where workers want results but will step over hot coals to make sure those "baby killing fags" get locked away or worse). (even though Florida's poltiics are more western than southern). I really don't think we can have both unless some Bucha-rot thing runs and syphons off 10 percent of the vote...then again the high black populations of the south may help us if Obama gets it.

[m.standridge]

4. But say, news flash--this just in--Cheney's blood clot opens once again

a possible scenario I've wondered about before--
could Cheney resign, for health reasons, and Bush name Condi Rice Veep?
Then, she'd be in a strong position to get the GOP nomination.
And Bush, and other Big Oil and big corporate people, would probably back her, behind the scenes. There's never been any love lost between Bush and McCain (for exmaple--right?), or some of the other GOP candidates.

So, is it possible, this could be a race, could still become a race, WHERE race itself wouldn't be an issue--a race between Obama and Condi Rice?
In that case, at least one theme in this thread, could be lessened.

Because, how would AR break in that case? Which African-American candidate would our little state vote for?

Oh...oh...oh.
And you know, I'd much rather have "even" Edwards than her, at times I think.
At other times, it's like with Clarence Thomas, you know? She is from such a DIFFERENT background than Bush, in so many ways, maybe she'd shake things up, couldn't help but shake things up, even without consciously trying that much, just by being that poor girl from the black part of Alabama. You'd want to believe, you know, that it would just SEEP THROUGH in her policies. She's Big Oil now, (Chevron), but it was a long climb to get there FOR HER.

As with Clarence Thomas...I opposed him, as to his being on the Court, based ENTIRELY on his voting record and announced positions.
At the same time, every so often, I still find it hard to believe, he's not going to up and vote how he must really feel, down inside, sometime, sometime.
He changed, you know? He worked for McGovern. He really changed sometime after that. But I still want to think, that Clarence Thomas is still there, somewhere, if we could just bring him out.

[m.standridge]

5. and you make an excellent point about the populations--

here in the South. You know, Mississippi, is what, over 40% African-American, and then there are the "mixed race" group the almanac refers to.
I've wondered before, if Mississippi could EVER get the money just to REPAIR their decrepit voting machines, that, with some bad weather, maybe something almost REVOLUTIONARY, almost MIRACULOUS, could happen. And maybe Obama could have a similar effect there.
You know, Mondale got a lot more votes than McGovern had, there in Mississippi. There was some progress made between '72 and '84.