Crying Wolf About the 'Big One' Hasn't Worked, So Let's Party

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NOVEMBER 11, 2008

Crying Wolf About the 'Big One' Hasn't Worked, So Let's Party
Geologists Try a Light Touch and Sign Up Millions for an Earthquake Drill in L.A.
By GABRIEL KAHN
WSJ

At 10 a.m. Thursday, geologists hope, more than five million people around Los Angeles will participate in a disaster drill built around a mock 7.8-magnitude earthquake along the San Andreas fault. Called the Great Southern California ShakeOut, it is being billed as the largest earthquake-preparedness event in U.S. history. Planners are trying to force a seismic shift in the way people deal with the prospect of earthquakes. Instead of playing up the devastation of Los Angeles, the geologists are planning something more like a giant bash. The earthquake drill -- in which people dive under their desks, cover their heads and hang on for dear life -- will be followed by a "Get Ready Rally," a sort of oversized block party.

Participants can design their own home page on the ShakeOut Web site, invite friends and watch earthquake videos. They can play a specially designed computer game called "After Shock," or another one called "Beat the Quake." A Hollywood special-effects studio was called in to devise an earthquake soundtrack with just the right rumble to be aired on TV and radio. Local radio personality Jack Popejoy will do the voice-over. "We want to make it feel cool to duck, cover and hold," he explains.

Cool is something geologists complain had been lacking from their pitch. Scientists have been warning for years that Los Angeles is living on borrowed time. The southernmost section of the San Andreas fault, which hugs a valley just east of the city, undergoes a major shift every 150 years or so. But the last serious quake was in 1680, about 100 years before Los Angeles was founded. So the city is about 178 years overdue for the "Big One." When the earthquake strikes, millions will be left without tap water, freeways will crumble and hundreds of fires will likely break out. Despite perennial dire warnings, most Angelenos go about their business blithely unconcerned.

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Part of the problem is that the picture of destruction scientists paint -- pancaked buildings, twisted asphalt, power outages -- is so bleak that many simply throw up their hands. "It's like what we used to say about how to prepare for nuclear war: Bend over and kiss your butt goodbye," says Robert Chandler, chairman of the communications department at Pepperdine University in Malibu. But scientists also blame themselves for an overly geeky approach. "Let's face it, we're introverts," says Dr. Jones.

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The scientists decided to expand their tightknit circle to involve economists, sociologists, city planners and others. They set about designing an intricate scenario that would detail how the 7.8-magnitude quake would affect the region -- cratering buildings, breaking water lines and sparking fears of looting. But early interest was scant. Only about a dozen people a day were signing up to participate on the Web site, and the Great ShakeOut looked like it might cause only a minor tremor. Then, on July 29, a 5.4-magnitude quake hit east of Los Angeles, shaking buildings throughout the city. The next day, 400 people signed up. "We do have the best marketing," says Dr. Jones. At the same time, organizers began recruiting people with the kind of marketing flair that seismologists generally lacked. Home Depot Inc. and Time Warner Cable Inc. signed on as sponsors.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122636562301015905.html (subscription)