Best chance to take a Congressional seat outside of Duckworth?

[JohMunich99]

All right so I would say Bean is probably going to keep her seat (I'd say 75%-85% chance of doing so?). Duckworth is maybe a little over 50%-50%, but who is the next best shot to pick up a Congressional seat in Illinois?

Alot of people are talking about Dan Seals in the 10th http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/. If you go to his website there is a picture of him with Obama where they look like twins. However, Kirk is a moderate in a very moderate district. I heard someone compare the 10th to "our own little CT" and I think that is a very accurate analogy. I think Kirk does a good job on keeping in touch with his constituents and I haven't heard good polling from this race. This was a while ago though and I would love to hear some recent reports/numbers.

Side note: In 2004 Kirk beat his opponent 64% to 36%. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IL/

Next after Seals I would say there's John Pavich in the 11th http://pavichforcongress.com/. Now his website and image may not be as polished as Seals, but his district is more favorable to Democrats. It's the highest labor district in Illinois and it covers Bloomington and Joliet. Now neither Bloomington or Joliet are liberal havens, but Kenilworth and Lake in the Hills are home to too many Democrats either. Joliet and the surrounding area is more racially mixed for one thing and as I mentioned before, labor is big here and Weller voted for CAFTA. Since the last election, Weller has become very distant from his district having married the daughter of former Guatemalan Dictator Rios Mott. He spends a lot of time in Guatemala when Congress isn't in session and I would say his district attentiveness ranks up there with Phil Crane in 2003.

Side note: In 2004 Weller beat his opponent 59% to 41%. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IL/

After those two its hard to see another pickup. Tim Johnson is techinaclly more vulenerable than Kirk having beat David Gill in 2004 by just 61% to 39%. Gill is running again, but I haven't heard many reports from the camp and Johnson is fairly moderate. Then you have Joe Shannon against Judy Biggert in District 13. Biggert won in 2004 65% to 35% and Shannon hasn't been making any splashes (although he's a good candidate). I know a lot of people are talking about John Laesch against Hastert but that's a long shot for sure unless Denny ends up in jail and even then it's pretty Republican out there.

Anway, I've realized people don't like long posts so I'll stop here. Does anyone think we could lose a seat? Possibly the 17th? I think it's rock solid myself. Does anyone see the chances of some of the candidates I mentioned or didn't mention as being brighter?

[Oceansaway]

1. i sure hope the 17th is OK

that Zinga bitch is NASTY !!

[Monkeyman]

2. Its now 43-49 John Laesch it started 35 ---49

www.john06.com

[JohMunich99]

3. Where is the link to that poll

Where do you see this on John's website. I searched but no dice.

[Bridget Dooley]

5. Those numbers are made up n/t

[teriyaki jones]

4. Bean's seat not "safe"

I'm "workin' it" here in the Illinois 8th, and Bean's seat really isn't a sure bet. A third party spoiler candidate has gotten himself on the ballot as the "peace" candidate. I've met him, not impressed. He ran against her in her first primary and lost. So now he's running as an independent and threatens to split the Dem vote. That said, I'm not a big fan of Bean, but we must re-elect her. Her Republican challenger is a f'ing nightmare conservative.

Also, Bean's district is largely conservative. The conservatives think she's too liberal, and the liberals find her too conservative. She walks a very fine line here.

Finally, I think the Repugs will be targeting this district for extra attention, extra support for McSweeney (we like to call him McSlimey), the Republican candidate (and they may be giving stealth support to Scheurer, the 3rd party guy--you never know).

So Bean needs our support, even if we have to hold our noses.

I'll be posting this separately, but we (a rag-tag group of activists who are trying to do what we can to help get Dems elected) are having an event on 8/27 in Mundelein called BlueFest. We have a website: www.bluefestrally.org.

Check it out!

tj

[madrchsod]

6. interesting site you have.

there`s nothing like being the boss is there? and your picture looks much better than your thumbnail....

[teriyaki jones]

7. Yeah, but…

the salary often sucks!

Thanks for taking a look at my site. The avatar image represents my inner super-hero, teriyaki jones, democratic avenger!

[sueh]

8. I live in the 11th and am working on Pavich's campaign.

We still have a fight ahead of us. Right now, Weller is photo opping all over the district, the only time we ever see him is election time. But he and his wife are also awaiting the birth of their baby.

If there are any DU'ers in the 11th here, and if you'd like to help we can always use more boots on the ground.

[benny05]

9. Gill Has a Chance

But needs some cash for some ads. I posted a link to the Progressive Patriots fund where you can vote for him, but here it is again. http://www.progressivepatriotsfund.com/pickapatriot/vote.html?source=web_ppp4