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Liberal Fighter, Here's what the 92nd has looked like in the past 8 years. Note that Hinkle lost 7,044 votes in just the past two years (comparing 2004 vs. 2006 results, so far). I take that to mean that he is vulnerable. Perhaps if the Indiana House would have helped out more, we might have turned that - but there's no way to know for sure.
ELECTION REP DEM TOTAL TYPE YEAR Votes Percent Votes Percent VOTES General 2006 9,114 58.00% 6,478 42.0% 15,592 Primary 2006 3,102 62.67% 1,848 37.3% 4,950 General 2004 16,158 63.00% 9,488 37.0% 25,646 2002 10,935 92.49% 888* 7.5% 11,823 2000 9,999 61.28% 6,319 38.7% 16,318 1998 7,377 63.72% 4,201 36.3% 11,578
The most votes ever cast in the district was 25,646 in the 2004 election. I figured we would need 13,335 to win comfortably (52%). Past Dems who ran were Robin Olds (2006; first time); Allen Swinford (2004); *no Dem ran in 2002, but Libertarian Cindy Kirkpatrick pulled 888 votes; Don Godfrey in 2000; and James Richardson in 1998. Note that the Repub candidate in 1998 was Michael Young, who went on to a Senate seat in the district. He pulled only 7,377 votes - enough to win, but clearly not a mandate. I think he's vulnerable in his Senate seat, and I plan to work with the Wayne Township Democrats to find someone to run aggressively against him next year.
We spent much more time knocking on doors and attending community events than phone banking, which may have cost us. Frankly, with the State's popular Do Not Call List, we worried about alienating the folks we were calling (yes, I know the rule isn't supposed to apply to political calls, but the people here locally feel it should apply to all calls). We knocked on thousands of doors in the key precincts; we started canvassing back in June.
There were 60 precincts in the 92nd district and we targeted the top 25 for canvassing and direct mail.
First time candidate and first time campaign manager = many mistakes. Robin's going to run again in 2008 and I think she'll be much more aggressive next time around.
Thanks for the interest - and support!
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