Mfume vs Steele... Steele wins?

[nickshepDEM]

A well-balanced and non-partisan analysis.

Excerpts:
Quote:
Sen. Paul Sarbanes' pending retirement raises the tantalizing possibility that Maryland will soon become only the fourth state ever to send an African-American to the U.S. Senate.

Former congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume has declared himself a Democratic candidate. Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele is the most likely contender for the Republicans. A battle between two African-Americans for Maryland's first open Senate seat in 20 years would make for a major national political story in 2006.

Who would be favored in a Mfume-Steele matchup?

Maryland is a blue state where no Republican Senate candidate has broken 41 percent since 1980. Yet, despite many Democratic advantages, including the overwhelming support of African-Americans, Steele would be the favorite. The reasons why have less to do with either man's qualifications than with the dynamics of racial voting.

Democrats have dominated Maryland for so long because crossover politicians like Sarbanes, Barbara Mikulski and William Donald Schaefer have been able to satisfy the liberal and moderate wings of their party. Parris N. Glendening's narrow win in the 1994 gubernatorial race revealed the first cracks in this winning coalition, and his 1998 re-election during a surging economy masked these underlying tensions.

By 2002, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's failure to reach well beyond the liberal wing based in Baltimore City and the nearby Washington suburbs paved the way for Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. to become Maryland's first Republican governor since Spiro Agnew.

So, the first probing question Democrats should ask Mfume is this: How will you repair that breach to build a winning majority?

Retired from electoral politics for nearly a decade, Mfume developed a national profile by reviving the NAACP. Although his NAACP presidency comforts liberal Democrats predisposed to his candidacy, that resume item will appeal far less to moderate Democrats and might even hurt him. Surely, suburban and exurban voters - not to mention more rural Democrats from Western Maryland, Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore - will be a tough sell for Mfume, who has yet to prove he can attract votes beyond his West Baltimore base.

...

If Steele ran against a formidable centrist Democrat - that would probably mean a white candidate - in the general election, he would struggle, especially if that Democrat came from the Baltimore area, the suburbs of which contain most of the state's swing voters.

Against Mfume, however, Steele has a real chance to win because he can peel away significant numbers of moderate white voters wary of voting for a liberal, black Democrat. Meanwhile, as a Republican, Steele is insulated against the wariness some white voters exhibit toward black Democrats.

But 27 percent of Marylanders are African-American, most of whom vote Democratic. Isn't that enough for Mfume? Hardly. The share of eligible, voting-age African-Americans is smaller, and the percentage of registered African-Americans who turn out is smaller still. Subtract the smattering of black Republicans, and African-American Democrats might constitute only 20 percent of the general electorate. Mfume must find another 30 percent of the electorate to win. Put another way, he needs to attract about two out of every five of the remaining, 80 percent nonblack voters. Though Townsend ran a bad campaign, Mfume would have to inspire moderates and independents who voted against her to vote for him.

...

Though it's impolite to say so publicly, race remains a powerful factor in the electoral calculus of many citizens. In the NAACP-sponsored debate with Ehrlich in 2002, Townsend acknowledged this reality. The debate was held at Morgan State University, where she played to the immediate audience with racial histrionics that only generated sympathy for Ehrlich among white voters.

Having Mfume and Steele battling it out for the Senate in 2006 would put race squarely on the ballot - exactly where the Republicans want it.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-pe.senate20mar20,1,548694.story?coll=bal-oped-headlines&ctrack=1&cset=true

[Old and In the Way]

1. I guess we can assume that the voters of Maryland will not factor

the continuation of a Republican House/Senate in our federal lives? That they will be voting strictly on local issues....no interest will be given to Social Security, Medicare/Healthcare, the war profiteering of the Republicans and their war without end, their ballooning deficits, their destruction of the civil discourse, their anti-environmentalsm, their interest in controlling our lives...even our deaths? Somehow, doubt it.

[aintitfunny]

4. You are absolutely correct, IMO (n/t)

[freestyle]

2. The analysis misses Steele's far right politics as a factor

Steele's beliefs are very much in line with Alan Keyes, and thus totally out of step with Maryland. His anti-choice position alone will be a problem. Steele is a conservative true believer, not simply an opportunist like Ehrlich. The more people know that, the less they will like it. If we make sure the voters know the real Steele, any of the possible Democratic nominees will beat him.

[aintitfunny]

3. One should not count Mfume

out just because of the opinion of a couple of Poly Sci profs. He is a formidable opponent and has a significant and recognizable standing in the black community through his service in the NAACP. Additionally his roots are deeply in Baltimore and his background is about overcoming adversity.

I am leaning strongly toward Mfume and this opinion piece does not alter that in any way. I just see it as a tactic to attempt to scare the democrats into staying away from Mfume for fear of losing the seat.

I tend to think, In my Opinion and for what it is worth, that the Republicans would love to see the dem's put a white man on the ticket against Michael Steele. It would give them the advantage they need.

[DaveinMD]

5. Tom Schaller

is more than just some professor. He's very active in Democratic politics. The article raises some important questions. I think Mfume can win, but nominating him would make the seat tougher to win. Cardin or Van Hollen are better general election candidates.

[aintitfunny]

6. I am sure he is more

than "just some professor" and I don't believe I referred to him in such a way. My emphasis is on the fact that it is opinion. Whatever their backgrounds at best it is an educated guess. Editorials are written to influence and I believe this is an early attack on Mfume. The fact of Mr. Schaller's involvment in Democratic politics does not change that, it simply adds a new dimension. He may have already picked his candidate and is now framing the debate to support his choice. I think that the views expressed in the editorial are wrong, but that is my opinion. I found the editorial somewhat offensive both to my party and my state, but that is my opinion. I don't think anyone could doubt that the editorial certainly did not help Mfume's prospects.

I realize that you are a political consultant, but at this point it is all guesswork. I will strongly support the candidate that wins the primary, but I hope in the process of this we do not do ourselves more harm than good. Losing that seat would be a disaster.

[DaveinMD]

8. Sorry

I misjudged the tone. I have a meeting to get to, but I will be back later to address this race in greater detail.

[Old and In the Way]

7. Perhaps he's taking a page out of the Republican playbook?

Maybe he's building up Steele because he knows Mmfume would take him apart in the GE.

[Zuni]

9. I can only imagine the smear job the GOP will do on Mfume

And they will say these attacks are not racist because, surprise surprise, they nominated a black man too, a black man whitey can love.
Michael Steele is actually a real bonafide right winger who, like Ehrlich, will play moderate in the election. He is a wolf in sheeps clothing. I think Michael Steele is our most dangerous enemy because he is black and can talk moderate, while pursuing a hard-right agenda. People don't see a black man as being hard right, but Steele is quite comfortable with the Taliban faction of the GOP.